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Dallas is still good, but this season will be a step back from last year.
There’s an unspoken understanding in the NBA. Up and coming teams with young stars are supposed to be … well … up and coming. They’re supposed to slowly climb towards the peak. Fans expect the Cleveland Cavaliers, with their young All-Star core, to move forward this year. Ja Morant’s Memphis Grizzlies are presumed to do the same. A one-year hiatus hasn’t changed the trajectory for Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks all that much.
We don’t really think about the machinations involved. We just assume those teams will keep climbing the mountain.
So it’s fair to presume that the Dallas Mavericks, fresh off of earning the Western Conference’s No. 4 seed and a trip to the Conference Finals, will methodically put one foot in front of the other and move up again this year.
But I’m not buying it.
The Mavs have Luka Dončić, and that’s good enough to sneak into the playoffs. But beyond that? I don’t see them earning a high seed, or improving on last year in any form or fashion. I don’t see them making any playoff noise, other than a 50-piece by Luka to steal a game or two from an actual contender.
Here’s why.
The defense is primed for massive regression
Not unlike the Golden State Warriors with Steph Curry, last year’s Mavs squad rode the high of an All-World offensive player … while actually being a better team on the defensive end of the court. Dallas’ offense was fairly pedestrian a year ago, but a defense that was comfortably in the league’s top 10 helped them glide to a 52-win season.
That defense is going to get worse. A lot worse.
As evidence, let’s look at two sets of garbage-time adjusted defensive ratings, courtesy of Cleaning The Glass.
2021-22 Mavericks, start of season through January 29: 108.2 (5th in the league)
2021-22 Mavericks, January 30 through the end of season: 113.7 (13th in the league)
2014-15 Bucks: 102.2 (4th in the league)
2015-16 Bucks: 108.6 (23rd in the league)
You can probably guess the significance of that first pairing. From the start of the season through Kristaps Porziņģis’ final game in his failed Dallas tenure, the Mavs sported a top-five defense. From then on, they were barely a shade above average.
For all of the flack that Porziņģis received – and deserved – the fact remained that he was a very good defensive player last season. His length, timing, and disruption at the rim not only stood out, but had a domino effect on the rest of the team’s defensive pieces. Suddenly wings and guards had to do less on defense, and when you do less you usually do it better.
Dallas replaced Porziņģis this offseason when they acquired Christian Wood … a solid replacement if you’re committed to only watching one end of the court. The Mavs seemingly realize this, as they’ve been starting JaVale McGee, albeit with non-starter minutes.
They’ve attempted to patch the defensive hole at center with Maxi Kleber, who’s a very strong defender. But Kleber is much better suited at the 4 than the 5 – both on offense and on defense – and he suddenly finds himself being asked to be the center that he really shouldn’t be.
On to the second set of numbers. What does an old Milwaukee Bucks team have to do with any of this? That 2014-15 season was Jason Kidd’s first year as coach of the Bucks. Their defense was special. And in his sophomore campaign? It was awful.
There are a lot of reasons for Milwaukee’s defensive awakening (they were 29th in defensive rating the year before Kidd took over), and subsequent fall. But I’m a firm believer in the first-year coaching bounce.
It takes a while for the league to adjust to a new coach’s schemes. Kidd was new to coaching when he went to Milwaukee. And he had been out of the game for a while when he signed on with Dallas, and came back running a fairly different defense than he’d utilized before. The league needed time to adapt.
But beyond that, a lot of first-year coaches can motivate their teams to play harder and tougher on defense, but that has a limited shelf life. Kidd’s history of being an abusive, old school motivator is well documented. Even if he’s mellowed out in Dallas, chances are high that a good portion of the team’s defensive effort is due to unsustainable motivational tactics.
And indeed, five games through the season, the Mavs sport the league’s No. 19 defense. That feels more like what they really are.
Three-point struggles
Every year, the importance of making threes – both at a high volume and a good efficiency – increases. Just ask the Los Angeles Lakers.
Despite Dončić’s theatrics, the Mavs were a highly pedestrian three-point shooting team a year ago, when they made 35.0% of their threes, which was 19th in the league.
Replacing Porziņģis with Wood should help dramatically in that category, but the loss of Jalen Brunson – who made 37.3% of his triples a year ago – hurts. The general consensus seems to be that Brunson’s shooting can be replaced by Spencer Dinwiddie, who made 40.4% of his threes after the midseason trade to Dallas. But that came after shooting 31.0% in the first half of the season, and he’s only had one year in his career where he made more than 34.0%. Expect painful amounts of regression.
A rebound year from Tim Hardaway Jr.’s jumper could jumpstart Dallas’ offense, but that’s probably not what you want to rely on. And the more the Mavs prove to be mediocre from three-point land, the more defenses will adjust their schemes to shut down Dončić … again, just ask the Lakers.
A Dončić wear down
While the defense and three-point shooting provide question marks, there’s one part of the Mavs – and one part only – that provides an exclamation point: Dončić. We know what he’ll bring to the court, and he’s off to a blistering start to the 2022-23 season.
But it’s fair to wonder if he might slow down a bit. Not because he’s outkicking his coverage, but because carrying a team on your back is exhausting. Dončić led the league in usage rate last season, and finished ninth in the league in minutes per game. For comparison, the second and third-highest usage rates – Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo – were Nos. 28 and 41, respectively, in minutes per game.
Being the entire offense for 36 minutes a night takes its toll, and whether it means Dončić suffers a drop-off in efficiency, starts to take his foot off the gas, or gets injured, it’s fair to anticipate some loss in production.
The Mavs will be good this year. Dončić alone assures that, and they’re not lacking for talented role players. But 52 wins, the No. 4 seed, and a trip to the Conference Finals set a high bar a year ago. That bar is supposed to be eclipsed this year. Instead, it will prove to be well out of reach.
