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Let’s rank every team in the NFL by its chances of winning the Super Bowl as we head into Week 6.
With Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season upon us, we thought it was a good time to take of where things stand in relation to the Super Bowl race.
Which means: It is time for some power rankings!
Interestingly enough, we took a look at our preseason rankings, compared to now, to get a sense of who has surprised us. Both in a good way, and in a “New England Patriots” sort of way. Because the Patriots are one of the biggest fallers when compared to the preseason rankings, having dropped nine spots.
But believe it or not, some teams have fallen even further down the rankings. The New York Jets are one team, having fallen 16 spots, but an injury to Aaron Rodgers would do that. The Denver Broncos and the New York Giants both fell 11 spots, and the Minnesota Vikings tumbled ten spots down the rankings.
The biggest risers? Your fightin’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Maybe Baker Mayfield has those preseason rankings saved on his phone.
So without further ado, let’s dive in.
32. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are mind-blowing … that isn’t a compliment. This might be the worst football team top-to-bottom the NFL has ever seen. They might not be as theoretically bad as the 0-16 Lions or Browns, but those teams had no redeemable traits.
Denver, meanwhile, still has Russell Wilson and enough around him that you’d expect them to be okay, but the defense is so mind-numbingly awful it’s bringing everything else down. This team gets embarrassed week-to-week, and they are exceedingly lucky the Bears were on their schedule this season or they could very easily be another 0-16 team.
31. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are an offensive mess. You can really read that either way and they’re both true. The team is both offensive to watch, and a mess on offense.
Defensively Carolina is actually pretty decent when healthy, getting a strong pass rush from Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, but the other side of the ball is a disaster. Adam Thielen is seemingly the only receiver who can consistently get open, the playcalling is predictable, and Bryce Young is suffering as a result.
There’s no signs of things getting better, but this team could randomly win a few games anyway.
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images
30. Chicago Bears
The Bears are the most infuriating team in the NFL. It’s not that they’re good, especially on defense, but my God the pieces are there to actually be terrifying on offense if they had a decent hand at the wheel.
We saw glimpses of this against the Commanders, but otherwise it’s been far too little this season. Is there a chance it all comes together in the back-half of the season? Maybe, but the inconsistent nature of this team makes predicting their future trying to throw a dart through a hurricane and expecting you’ll hit something.
29. Washington Commanders
It’s less a question about what’s wrong with the Commanders than what’s right with them. Even head coach Ron Rivera doesn’t have the answers. This is an organization in dire need of a shakeup, which Rivera isn’t really willing to do. Instead the only person inside the team that seems committed to success is Eric Bieniemy, but that’s not enough when D.J. Moore is able to hang 240 receiving yards on the Jack Del Rio defense without him having any answers.
A new quarterback and some fresh thinking would do wonders for this team, but as it stands they’re destined to disappoint.
28. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are a brutally-bad football team, and it starts with — as expected — their offense. Entering Week 6 the Patriots are dead last in EPA/Play, EPA/Dropback, EPA/Rush, points per game, offensive touchdowns, and points per drive.
Mac Jones has been a spectator at the end of their last two games, two of the worst losses of the Bill Belichick Era. After suffering the worst loss of his entire tenure, a 38-3 debacle at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, they had their worst home loss of Belichick’s tenure, a 34-0 disaster against the New Orleans Saints.
After that loss, Belichick talked about how the plan is “starting over.”
How?
27. New York Giants
The New York Giants are living the downside of “being a year early.”
Entering last year, new general manager Joe Schoen talked before the season about the hand he was dealt. The Giants were in a tough position cap-wise, and needed to make some tough roster decisions.
Then, they caught fire, putting together a stunning run to the playoffs that few saw coming, and a run that was perhaps a year ahead of schedule.
The result? A tougher slate of games for this season, and we are seeing the effects of that now. The Giants sit at 1-4 with that sole victory a comeback effort against the Cardinals. Daniel Jones is banged up, Saquon Barkley is banged up, and there are no easy answers.
26. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ jump from off the doormat of the NFL to … just a bit above the doormat is a major development from this season. Head coach Jonathan Gannon was the punchline of many offseason jokes, but he has this team playing competitive. Are they truly good? No, not really, but they play extremely hard and will be in almost every game they play.
Of course, a big question come later on this year is the outlook of this team when QB Kyler Murray comes back. Will Murray play and make the Cardinals more competitive, as well as boosting his potential trade value? Will he decide to continue to rest and rehab his torn ACL and let the Cardinals finish the job for a top QB in the upcoming draft class? Find out next week on Dragonball Z!
25. Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings have some tough decisions ahead of them.
After a year where they went 11-0 in one-score games, the Vikings sit at 1-4, having lost all four games by you guessed it, one score. Justin Jefferson is now headed to IR, out for at least the next four games, and Minnesota is already three games behind the Lions in the division.
Is there time for Minnesota to turn it around? Sure.
Can they? Without Jefferson? That is a much tougher question.
Should they try? Even tougher to answer.
But with the Kirk Cousins Era drawing to a close, turning their “competitive rebuild” into a structural reset might be the better course of action, for their future.
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
24. Tennessee Titans
What exactly are the Tennessee Titans?
Well, before the season they were ranked 25th in this same list, and five weeks later, they’re … 25th. Pinnacles of consistency, this bunch.
The defense remains extremely stingy and one of the more underrated groups in the NFL, but the offense remains mercurial at best, and abysmal at worst. They can go from shutting down the Cleveland Browns 27-3, to losing to the Colts 23-16. That’s just the Titan Way. Can this be enough to make the playoffs? In the AFC, probably not.
23. Green Bay Packers
Is it … is it time to worry about Jordan Love?
It is probably too soon for that, but Monday night was not an inspiring performance. The main issue with Love at the moment is something that plagued him during his days at Utah State: Not every problem can be solved with his arm. Monday night was a prime example. On his third interception Love flushed out of the pocket and to his left, and attempted a vertical throw from an awkward platform.
While the receiver did have a step, it was probably too aggressive a decision. The result? A game-ending interception.
Right now only Kenny Pickett has a bigger percentage of his throws graded as “aggressive” by Next Gen Stats than Love. This season 25.3% of his throws have received such a designation, and Love leads the league in Intended Air Yards as well.
Aggression is good, when appropriate. Working in some layups and checkdowns might be a good thing.
22. New York Jets
Sorry, your defense is absolutely elite but you have Zach Wilson at quarterback.
Best of luck in 2024.
21. Las Vegas Raiders
Checks notes.
Josh McDaniels is still the head coach. Nothing matters here.
20. Indianapolis Colts
The good: the Colts are showing a proof of concept with head coach Shane Steichen. The offense can get at least passable production from a bad QB and RB Jonathan Taylor is coming back as well. The defense is also still very talented, led by LB Zaire Franklin.
The bad: Last week was the second major injury to take out rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who sprained an AC joint in the win and didn’t return to the game.
The ugly: It’s his right shoulder and the Luck flashbacks have begun.
19. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons aren’t good, but at least Bijan Robinson makes them FUN. Basically what we thought about this team entering the season is playing out. There are so many great building blocks here, but without a foundation at quarterback it’s a moot point.
Long-term, there’s success to be had, and kudos to this team for pushing past their talent ceiling to eek out wins, but Desmond Ridder is too average to make this team go much further than a potential moral victory in the NFC South.
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
18. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are 2-3, and coming off a loss to the Atlanta Falcons which might not look good on paper.
But think about how the future looks for Houston. C.J. Stroud is as-advertised. The pieces they have put around him, including wide receiver Tank Dell, look to be explosive. The defense, while banged up this week, is going to be good in the years ahead.
The Texans are ahead of schedule, which is perhaps everything their fans were hoping to see this season.
17. Los Angeles Rams
In terms of some apologies that might be necessary, we can start here.
Look, we were not alone in dismissing the Rams coming into the season. They have certainly been much, much better than we expected. Last week also gave us, albeit in a loss, our first glimpse at what this offense might look like with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Once Kupp is fully back to speed? This offense could be fun to watch.
Something else to consider? The Rams have games at home against Arizona and Pittsburgh the next two weeks, followed by trips to Dallas and Green Bay. Sure, they are 2-3 right now, but 5-4 after that stretch seems doable.
16. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have won close games against bad teams, lost a close game to a bad team, blown out a bad team, and gotten blown out by a mediocre team. In a word: Inconsistent.
Derek Carr is leagues above what the Saints had a quarterback in 2022, but he still hasn’t really found his footing. Carr is able to get either Michael Thomas or Chris Olave involved, but not both of them at the same time. The saving grace is that they looked MUCH better after Alvin Kamara returned from suspension, but it’s tough to put too much stock in that against the woeful Patriots.
Like the rest of the NFC South this team is middling at best, but could still win the division. What a weird place that is.
15. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have rebounded from some embarrassing early losses to put together a good 3-2 record thus far. The offense looks more explosive and attacking downfield: Justin Herbert’s Average Throw Depth per SIS is a whole yard above his previous career high, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has gotten more out of a run game that was previously disgusting.
Defensively, I’m not sure if I’m in yet. The Chargers traded away JC Jackson because he was playing abysmal football, but even without Jackson, this DB room has a lot of question marks surrounding depth and health. Up front, EDGE Joey Bosa has missed time already due to a hamstring injury, and Eric Kendricks has been in and out of the lineup. The question always remains for the Chargers: yes, they are good, but can they stay healthy long enough to show it?
14. Cincinnati Bengals
Last week the sage minds here at the “dot com” mused that maybe the Bengals should sit Joe Burrow down for the next two weeks. After all, Cincinnati has a very difficult stretch coming out of their bye week, and resting Burrow against Arizona and Seattle, and then giving him the bye week, would give their quarterback almost a month to get ready for that slate of games.
Instead, Burrow went out and had his best game of the season as the Bengals topped the Cardinals 34-20.
However, that tough slate of games still remains. After their bye week the Bengals play at San Francisco, against Buffalo, against Houston, and at Baltimore.
Sunday was nice, but we’ll know a lot more about Cincinnati following that stretch.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
On this week’s episode of “Monday Football Monday” our own JP Acosta compared the Steelers to the White Walkers of Game of Thrones fame.
They will find ways to win ugly and that is exactly what we saw Sunday against the Ravens. The offense looked bad for 50 minutes, but their defense kept them in the game and they pulled it out in the end.
JP also had another comparison for them.
They are who we thought the Patriots were going to be.
12. Cleveland Browns
Uhhh…(/shrugs shoulders). The Browns are a weird team. The defense has legitimately been the best in the entire NFL by EPA per play, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has allowed this team to play far more aggressive and in an attacking style suiting the personnel.
However, the offense still hasn’t found the flow yet. Up and down play from QB Deshaun Watson (who hasn’t practiced with the team due to an injury), up and down play from the offensive line and an extremely disappointing Nick Chubb injury has sunk the Browns offense. They still have talented players and HC Kevin Stefanski can design an offense, but the talented players (ie: the $230 million QB) has to step up and play better down the stretch of the season if they want to make the playoffs.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The … uhh … first place Tampa Bay Buccaneers? I mean the NFC South was wide open but nobody expected the Buccaneers to be 3-1 at this point in the season. QB Baker Mayfield has not only kept his head above water, but excelled in Dave Canales’ offense that still has WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who can both completely flip games. Add LT Tristan Wirfs’ top level play and a defense that is physical and mean as hell, and you have a potential winning formula.
I’m not sure how long this will last, but good for you, Bucs. Good for you.
10. Baltimore Ravens
Is anyone going to help Lamar Jackson? Bueller? The inconsistency of receivers not named “Zay Flowers” has been pronounced in 2023, as the Ravens’ gamble on Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t paid off.
This should be a dominant “top of the AFC contending” team, and yet every year they fail to get their former MVP quarterback the tools to get over the hump. This is a front office issue as large as any we’ve seen in recent years, and Jackson is wasting away while waiting for some consistency.
You can’t win in the modern NFL without great players on the outside, and right now Baltimore only has one. The blessing in disguise for them is that the rest of the AFC North is underachieving too.
9. Seattle Seahawks
If we broke the NFC into tiers, the Seattle Seahawks are in the second tier of top teams, along with the Cowboys. Seattle is a team that can make a lot of noise come playoff time, but still have lingering questions that could limit their ceiling. For the Seahawks, this offense has shown the ability to not only remain explosive, but developing in different areas as well. The Seahawks are deadly out of 12 personnel, sixth in total EPA passing out of the grouping, and first in EPA per attempt out of the group and third in first down rate. QB Geno Smith has continued his good play from last year, and keeping OC Shane Waldron was a boon.
Defensively, questions still remain. Yes, they had 11 sacks against the Giants, but it was the Giants so that’s a wash. I worry about their ability to consistently defend the run due to lack of depth on the interior, which is a problem when you’ll more than likely have to go through San Francisco or Philadelphia to make the Super Bowl. They’ll need S Jamal Adams back healthy to really give a boost to the defense.
8. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are who we thought they were.
After tantalizing us with early-season promise that “this will be the year,” Dallas has dropped two of its last three games to the Cardinals and 49ers. That San Francisco game was particularly demoralizing, because they were so thoroughly dismantled that it looks silly to ever believe they could be a top-tier team in the NFC.
This looks like a team that will make another impressive regular season run and get stopped in the playoffs. There’s not much more to say than that.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
It hasn’t been pretty, but the Jaguars have made it to 3-2 and the top of the AFC South. The offense has sputtered at times, but when it’s clicking, whew boy the fireworks show starts. The real stars through this portion of the season have been the Jaguars defense: 11th in EPA per play, fourth in EPA per play against the run. This is also without DT Davon Hamilton, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, and LB Devin Lloyd, who went down with a fractured thumb and missed the two London games. Defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell has turned this defense into a machine, and they’ve played their best against top competition.
The questions along the offensive line still remain, however. RG Brandon Scherff and C Luke Fortner are both playing through nagging ankle injuries, and LG (and former LT) Walker Little went down in the win against Buffalo. If they can’t get the offensive line play under control, it limits their ceiling. But this team is very talented, and has impact players at important positions.
Photo by Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images
6. Detroit Lions
Are we living on a “Jared Goff: MVP” timeline?
We might be.
Goff is coming off perhaps his best game of the season, a 20 for 28 effort against the Carolina Panthers where he threw for 236 yards and 3 touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was in his bag Sunday, running not only a direct snap to David Montgomery while Goff was under center — a play Detroit used at the request of Colby Sursdal, who blocked for that design during his time at William & Mary — but also the same reverse flea flicker that everyone saw the 49ers run for a touchdown Sunday night.
That’s right, the Lions ran it earlier in the day for a touchdown to Sam LaPorta.
Who could have thought this at the start of the year, but Sunday’s Detroit-Tampa Bay tilt is a must-watch game. And not just because the Buccaneers are bringing back the creamsicles.
5. Miami Dolphins
A hotshot offensive mind becomes head coach and sets the league on fire. I’m talking about Mike McDaniel … I’m also talking about Chip Kelly.
Jokes aside, McDaniel’s system in Miami is rooted in far more substance than gimmick, ensuring he won’t suffer the same fate as Kelly. This Dolphins offense is HISTORIC and will change how teams think about football. Speed layered on top of speed can’t be countered until teams around the league find defensive answers, and that takes time.
The big issue for Miami down the stretch is that defensively the team is average, and we saw against Buffalo that enough defensive playmakers can neuter the system. Other than that this team is primed to make a serious run into the playoffs.
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills remain in the upper class of the NFL, but there are definitely more questions about this team than answers at this point, especially on defense. Recent injuries to superstar LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White and DT Daquan Jones have put major chinks into the armor that is the Bills defense. Milano is especially crucial; with former Bill Tremaine Edmunds in Chicago and new starters taking their lumps, Milano is the rock that holds the defense together.
Nevertheless, they’ll continue to be very good because Josh Allen is very good. Since the week 1 disaster against the Jets, Allen has been one of the best QBs in football, and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey might have finally found the formula to toggle between Allen’s Cheese-brain and efficient football. The offense will be fine—the defense will be the question
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Checks notes.
Yep, they still have Patrick Mahomes.
Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are 5-0 but it feels like a less-impressive record than the unblemished record of the 49ers.
Still, while the 49ers might have the best overall roster in the NFL and are playing like it at the moment, the Eagles have the. best position group in the league: Their offensive line.
That is going to be huge for them the rest of the way.
Something else to remember is that this team lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators. That is leading to a bit of a “feeling out” period in Philadelphia.
Long story short? Things should be fine Eagles fans.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Right now there seems to be a gap between the 49ers and the rest of the field.
They have so many different ways to beat you on offense. Their defense is fast and dangerous, and when their offense gives them a lead they can torment the opposing quarterback with a fierce pass rush. Fred Warner might be entering “best defensive player in the league” territory.
And yes, Brock Purdy has yet to lose as a starter.
There is a long way to go, but this looks like the best team in football right now. By a pretty big margin.
