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Start your engines for the great quarterback extension race, folks, because it’s going to be a wild year and a half.
In 1848, James Marshall found gold at Sutter’s Mill in California, starting a rush that would lead to California being added as a state, railroads being built, and of course, a lot of gold in people’s hands. The Gold Rush, as it was called, saw people hustle out to California to get rich off gold and make themselves famous, hoping not to miss out.
In 2024, the NFL is about to undergo their version of the Gold Rush, with teams looking to sign their QBs to big money deals before the price gets too high. On Monday the Detroit Lions signed Jared Goff to a massive, four-year $212 million extension that includes $170 million guaranteed. That $53 million APY makes him the second-highest paid quarterback in the NFL, behind Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow. Detroit was the first to strike gold with their QB, and now the rush is on to get the other guys extended before that balloon pops. No team wants to be the last to give their QB the extension that breaks the game, but every new QB deal is more than likely going to warrant a big market reset.
With that in mind, let’s look at some QBs due for extensions and see if they’ll strike gold with their respective teams.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua’s deal is going to be interesting to see unfold. You can make the argument that Miami would be smart to extend him given the success they have with Tagovailoa under center, but resetting the market for him also wouldn’t be the wisest choice, especially with WR Jaylen Waddle up for a big extension as well. Tua is a good QB for the Dolphins system, with the timing and accuracy underneath to really make that offense hum. However, the playoff struggles will continue to haunt them unless Tagovailoa steps up in one of the games. Could Miami be a sneaky candidate to do what the Rams did in order to trade for Matthew Stafford? Who would be McDaniel’s Stafford in this case? Possibly another QB we’ll get to in a few moments here. With all that being said, I expect Tagovailoa to get an extension done with Miami, but not near record-setting.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Putting my own personal biases aside, I believe Trevor Lawrence is a very, very good QB. The offensive struggles of last year clouded what people should see is a very good signal caller who has shown the ability to catch fire and take over football games. Lawrence had his fifth-year option picked up by the Jaguars this offseason (obviously), and extension talks have begun, according to both sides. This one should be pretty simple, and the Jaguars are more than likely not going to mess this one up. Trevor Lawrence is going to get a deal that makes him one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
The Love extension is also going to be pretty fascinating, simply because of the timeline that Love’s career has been on. Yes, his first year starting ended with a bevy of highlight-reel passes and completions, but I would understand the reluctance to pay a QB who has in reality only played one full season as the starter. Did that season show enough to solidify him as the QB of the future? I think that’s where Green Bay is at now. Would I pay him now? I think so, just because you would much rather be proactive and get a deal done than sit on your hands and have to blow up the market because you waited (glances at a team in Texas). My final prediction: Jordan Love gets a record-setting deal, but not until after the 2024 season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Oh, Dallas. How did we get here? I wrote last week about how Dallas is playing a dangerous game waiting for other deals to come in before they do something with Dak, and now that Goff received $53 million per year, Dallas is on the clock. The problem here is that Dallas also needs to pay WR CeeDee Lamb, LG Tyler Smith and EDGE Micah Parsons as well. All are going to be due for extensions and deserve them. Dallas waited far too long to get a deal done with Dak, and now they’re either going to have to pay him a whole lot of money, or see him walk away and eat some cap that way. Dak has no guaranteed money left on his deal, however. If Dallas wanted to trade Dak so they don’t have to do the extension, that would be in play here, but I think that’s more of a last resort type of move. From the Dak side of things, I think he’s going to get a big new deal, whether it be from Dallas or someone else. The second part is up to the Cowboys. My prediction: Dak gets a massive deal, but it’s after the season in free agency, and it’s not from the Cowboys.
