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We already know who wins because DVOA says so
The stage is set. All the media availabilities, hawking products by players and former players, all the Pro Bowl Games and all of the analysis has led us to Super Bowl LVII and the conclusion of the 2022 NFL season.
Having the top seed from both conferences square off in the biggest game of the season should give fans the best possible contest. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have rosters full of talented players, big names and both produce exciting brands of football.
The question everyone wants to know, from fans of the two teams, those betting on the game and the casual fan alike, is who will win.
As we have been doing the last few rounds, we turn to analytics to try to find the answer. The data collected by DVOA was 6-0 in the wild-card round, 3-1 in the divisional round and 1-1 in the conference championships.
As we saw with the San Francisco 49ers, analytics can’t predict significant injuries. While the Niners were DVOA favorites to win the game, losing the ability to throw the football guaranteed the team’s loss.
In fact, DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample.
Despite that, DVOA is 10-2 in predicting the results of games this postseason. With fans and bettors looking for whatever data they can find, this analytics tool is a great piece of information to have.
What does DVOA tell us about this weekend’s game?
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
Overall DVOA: Philadelphia 3rd vs Kansas City 4th
Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 1st vs Philadelphia 3rd
Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 6th vs Kansas City 17th
Special Teams DVOA: Philadelphia 13th vs Kansas City 19th
In just the playoffs, with only two games between them, the Eagles were the best overall team with 72.6% total DVOA while the Chiefs were third at 39.8%.
Whether it was during the regular season or playoffs, the biggest difference comes on the defensive side of the ball where Kansas City was worse than the average NFL team while Philadelphia was just 0.4% away from being a top-five team.
The individual gap between Patrick Mahomes (26.5%) and Jalen Hurts (10.6%) explains much of the difference between the two teams on the offensive side of the ball. Earlier this week, we looked at how Mahomes and Hurts graded out this season per Pro Football Focus and found some interesting data as well.
When looking at the analytics, it is clear that the general narrative about the teams is also backed up by the data. The Chiefs are seen as a great offense and mediocre defense while the Eagles are seen as a very good offense and a very good defense.
The exact DVOA data shows just how close the two teams are overall. Philadelphia checks in at 25.2% overall while Kansas City is just behind at 23.0%.
Sunday, we find out if being great in one area, especially on offense, is good enough to overcome a more balanced team that is very good on both sides of the ball.
What is essentially a coin-flip game, with the Eagles currently a 1.5-point favorite, could come down to an injury, a fluke play, a bad call or, as it did a few years ago, a power outage. There is no data that can predict those things but using the information available to us through DVOA, analytics say Philadelphia will win a close game.
