Answering the NFL Draft’s 7 biggest questions in 2023

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From the depth of the quarterback class to the sleepers to watch, here are the biggest questions of this draft.

We are less than three weeks away from the 2023 NFL Draft, and unlike previous years, it seems that this year’s crop of prospects has created more questions than answers.

With that in mind, here are seven big questions facing this year’s draft, as well as our attempts to answer them.

How does this QB class compare to years past?

Well, at first blush it seems stronger than last year’s class.

The best comparison for this group might be the 2021 class, which saw five quarterbacks come off the board in the first 15 selections, and also saw the draft begin with three-straight QB selections (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance). This year’s draft starting with three-straight quarterbacks is a possibility, and while five in the first 15 picks does seem like a longshot, there is a non-zero chance that Hendon Hooker sneaks into the first round.

And potentially higher into the first round than expected. Keep an eye on Detroit at 18 and Minnesota at 23.

In terms of how the 2021 crops was viewed as prospects coming out, and comparing that to this year’s class, there are some similarities there as well. The most striking comparison might be between the player that went third that year and the QB that seems to be the consensus QB3 at the moment in Anthony Richardson. Lance was viewed as an athletic prospect with a big arm who was raw and needed to fix some mechanical issues and ball-placement inconsistencies.

Much like Richardson.

Who is the REAL No. 1 pick, independent of position?

There are multiple avenues of thought on this, but overall the top player in this draft class is Alabama’s Will Anderson. At 253 pounds he played everywhere at Alabama, often sliding inside to a 4i during his final two years in Tuscaloosa. However, that didn’t stop him from recording 48 tackles for loss and 27.5 sacks in two years. Anderson is scheme versatile, a strong run defender who plays with torque and leverage to help him win in the run and passing game. He also has shown good bend as a counter to his long arm and power as a pass rusher.

The other avenue is Georgia’s Jalen Carter. Given all of the off-field concerns and the disappointing pro day, Carter probably won’t go in the top five. However, when you watch the 2021 Georgia defense, there’s an argument to be made that Carter was the best player out of all of them. He combines first step explosion with insane raw power and the physicality to dominate in both the run and passing game. If all of the off-field stuff irons itself out, then an NFL team potentially has a game-wrecking 3-technique on their roster.

For me, I’m going with Anderson. Don’t overthink him, he’s a good run defender with the ability to grow into a great one, while combining burst with a variety of pass rushing moves. He’s not Derrick Thomas, but nobody is asking him to be.

Is there a JaMarr Chase or Jaylen Waddle in this class?

With the prevalence and growth of 7 on 7 youth tournaments and the spread passing offense creating super soldier wide receivers more often, you would think that this upcoming draft would have another guy like Chase or Waddle, instant high-impact starters who can change a game.

However, that may not be the case this year.

Scouts and media members as a whole are generally down on this year’s wide receiver class, but there could potentially be some starters to come out of this group, with some having potential to be pretty good WR2s.

The largest problem with this wide receiver class could possibly be that they all are largely slot receivers, or spent the most of their routes run from the slot. Take Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, for example. A large majority of his routes were run from the slot. That doesn’t mean he can’t have success on the outside, it might just mean that’s where he’s best at.

The NFL is currently trending towards having their best receivers run routes in the slot more, to give them a two way go from the LOS and get better matchups on the inside. That could help this class, but I don’t think we’ll see another instant-impact receiver like Chase or Waddle until next year.

Who will trade up to No. 3?

There is growing sentiment that the draft begins with the third-overall pick, currently held by the Arizona Cardinals.

Of course, stranger things can happen. We will address those potential stranger things in a moment. But for now, working off the assumption that the draft starts QB-QB, Arizona finds themselves in a tremendous position.

With the Indianapolis Colts sitting at four, a team in need of a quarterback might find it necessary to get up to three to draft the best QB left. In recent days organizations such as the Las Vegas Raiders, the Tennessee Titans, and even the Minnesota Vikings have been mentioned.

However, that possibility opens the door to the Colts themselves moving up, to make sure they — and not one of the leapfrogging teams — drafts the next quarterback.

Ultimately, with under three weeks to go until the draft, that seems the most-likely scenario. Chris Ballard has made no mistake about the need to find their quarterback in this draft, and talked openly about trying to get up to one to make that happen. With that option off the table, getting up to three might be the best Plan B available for him.

Could the Texans pass on a QB at 2?

Now, could a move up to three for Indianapolis actually be for QB2?

As we approach the draft some of the bigger names in the football media space are floating the idea that the Houston Texans could pass on a quarterback with the second-overall pick. For example, in his Mock Draft 3.0 Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has the Texans passing on C.J. Stroud for Tyree Wilson.

Peter King as well opened to door to Houston going off-script. While stating that he still thinks the Texans go QB — “I’m 90 percent on board with that” says King — the veteran scribe also noted this in a recent column:

But in the last few days, I’ve heard this about Houston GM Nick Caserio: Very conservative. If he doesn’t love a quarterback at two, he’s not going to force it. He’d rather take this year’s sure edge thing, Anderson, the way Detroit took Aidan Hutchinson with the second pick last year.

Then there was this from ESPN’s Adam Schefter earlier this week:

Is this a matter of “where there’s smoke, there’s fire?” Or is this more a function of boredom setting in as the draft approaches?

When three incredibly plugged-in analysts all float the same idea, it leads you to the former point, and understandably so. King, Schefter, and Zierlein have a much deeper contacts list than yours truly ever will, so they might be onto something.

However, given that the QB class as noted above has two players at the top in Stroud and Young that look to be in a tier of their own — and perhaps closer to the “sure thing” as noted by King — passing on one of them to see if they can address QB later, either at #12 or in a trade up — seems like a roll of the dice.

King notes that general manager Nick Caserio is conservative. Drafting one of the two QBs at the top of the draft, instead of seeing what falls to you at #12, seems like the more conservative play.

And if you ask me, the right one.

What position is the deepest?

In recent years, this was a fairly easy question to answer, thanks to the way the sport is trending.

Wide receiver.

With the emphasis on the passing game, receiver classes were becoming deeper and deeper each year. With good reason. Passing is king, and not just in the NFL. This weekend marks the start of 7-on-7 season here in Montgomery County, Maryland, and I’ll be back coaching middle schoolers in a spring passing league. Thanks to the emphasis on the passing game — starting at an early age — the talent pool at receiver is growing deeper and deeper each year, with prospects ready to contribute immediately.

However, wide receiver is not the deepest group in this year’s draft.

As Newton taught us, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. The proliferation of the passing game at all levels of the sport has created an opportunity for those on the defensive side of the ball to develop and thrive.

Leading to this draft, where cornerback is the deepest position.

Not that mock drafts are a perfect data point, but they do provide a solid starting point for this discussion. According to NFL Mock Draft Database four cornerbacks (Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Joey Porter Jr., and Deonte Banks) are inside the Top-25 selections with three more (Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith, and Kelee Ringo) inside the Top-40 picks.

But that is at the top of the draft. What stands out about this position group is the depth. 14 cornerbacks are inside the Top-100 selections at NFL Mock Draft Database, with Eli Ricks sitting just outside that group at 101. That is in line with the work done each year by the brilliant Arif Hasan, who covers the league for Pro Football Network. Each year Hasan compiles his “consensus big board,” incorporating rankings from dozens of draft analysts. While not finalized, he tells me that at the moment, 14 cornerbacks are inside the Top-100.

Over at The Draft Network, their team of scouts list 16 cornerbacks inside the Top-100 players on their big board.

Then there is Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN who had this to say about the upcoming cornerback class:

The passing game is king in football today.

That includes players on the defensive side of the ball who are trying to stop the pass.

Who is the one sleeper that NFL fans need to know?

Finding sleepers is a favorite part of draft season. Given that the NFL draft has become a year-round event, and given the reach of the NFL, smaller-school players are finding themselves with more opportunities at the next level. For example, one of the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl this year, and then the Combine, was Tyson Bagent, from Division II Shepard.

While Bagent is a name to watch at the end of the draft, another is Andrei Iosivas, the Princeton wide receiver. After catching 66 passes for 943 yards and seven touchdowns last season for the Tigers, Iosivas turned heads at the Senior Bowl, and then did this at the Combine:

In a year where there are some questions about the WR class, Iosivas is certainly worth watching as we get into the third day of the draft.