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The PGA Tour’s fourth Signature Events will be held this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We delve into the odds and give valuable insight.
The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing with a bang this week as players will descend upon Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
This will be the fourth Signature Event of the PGA Tour season, bringing with it the elevated $20,000,000 purse and additional FedEx Cup points.
Granted, this is one of those tournaments that doesn’t need incentive to draw one of the best fields of the season.
Many of the world’s top players including Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy will tee it up in search of another win.
So, let’s get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, predictions and make a pick.
Arnold Palmer Invitational odds
The field at Arnie’s Place is about as stacked as you can get. Here are the current odds, per DraftKings:
Scottie Scheffler +650
Rory McIlroy +850
Viktor Hovland +1600
Xander Schauffele +1800
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Ludvig Aberg +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Jordan Spieth +2500
Sam Burns +2800
Max Homa +2800
Cameron Young +2800
Justin Thomas +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +3000
As you can see, it’s a who’s who of the PGA Tour. That makes selecting a winner a difficult endeavor. However, there are some keys to be looked at.
Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is easily one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour every year. After there were changes made around the greens five years ago, this course has ranked top five most difficult each season in terms of scoring.
But what does that mean?
Well, let’s break it down.
Rory McIlroy fits the course to offer value, but not to win
The course will play just over 7,400 yards. That’s quite the track and will obviously give players who are long off the tee somewhat of an advantage.
However, the rough beside the fairway is, in some spots, three inches thick. That places a premium not just on driving it far, but driving it accurately.
Everyone knows that McIlroy is a bomber off the tee. But thus far this year, he has also been deadly accurate, ranking 14th on tour at over 68% of fairways hit.
I don’t think his short game will be strong enough to carry him to a win. After all, Bay Hill is notorious for its wild green complexes and Rory ranks 132nd in putts per round this year.
But he should be able to position himself well enough off the tee that he will be in contention into the weekend.
For that reason, I love McIlroy and his -110 odds of a Top-10 finish. You get even money minus the juice on a track he has performed very well at historically.
Cameron Young primed for a breakout performance
Another really interesting bet is Cameron Young to finish Top-5. You’ll get +500 for a player whose game appears to be in top form right now.
Young finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic, T16 at the Genesis Invitational and T8 at the Phoenix Open his last three tournaments.
This course has been the third most predictive based on past performances on tour, per the New York Times.
Well, Young has finished inside the top 13 each of the two times he has played here before.
This course tests every aspect of your game. If there is a glaring weakness, Bay Hill will find it. Yet, Young is middle of the pack or better in nearly every statistical category this year.
To get 5-to-1 odds that he finishes Top-5 here, I like that bet.
Arnold Palmer Invitational long shot
If you are looking for some truly long odds, look no further than Min Woo Lee.
He is quite obviously a budding star on tour and presents +4000 odds to win the tournament
Considering all of the long shots that have won this year, that’s a solid price for someone as talented as Lee.
It’s not a matter of if he breaks out, but when.
Lee finished his 2023 strong, collecting three Top-10s in his final five starts. He then finished T2 last week at the Cognizant.
Maybe this is his time to shine, and put Team USA’s Presidents Cup team on notice.
Arnold Palmer Invitational pick
Speaking of breakout stars, I am going to pick Ludvig Aberg to win at Arnie’s Place.
Aberg is both long off the tee and accurate. His short game has vastly improved in such a short amount of time and the 24-year-old has shown a propensity for playing big in big moments.
Just ask Team USA’s Ryder Cup team who he helped emphatically embarrass.
He finished his 2023 season on fire, collecting three Top-5s and five straight Top-15s to close out the year. That includes a win at the RSM Classic, another course in the Southeast U.S. that utilizes Bermuda grass.
He has continued that momentum into this year and nearly won again at Pebble Beach.
Aberg is currently going off at +2000. You’re telling me that I am getting 20-to-1 odds that this kid’s ascent continues at a place known for making history. Sign me up.
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Kendall Capps is the Senior Editor of SB Nation’s Playing Through. For more golf coverage, follow us @_PlayingThrough on all major social media platforms.
