Jason Day during a practice round ahead of The 152nd Open Championship. | Photo by Luke Walker/R&A via Getty Images
The Open has produced plenty of long shot winners in the past, so here are three players who can surprise the world this week at Royal Troon.
Of all the four major championships, The Open Championship is perhaps the most unpredictable—much like the inclement weather that can blow across the Scottish coast at a moment’s notice.
Look no further than last year, when Brian Harman decimated Royal Liverpool to win by six shots at 13-under-par. Harman, who arrived in England with 125-to-1 pre-tournament odds, claimed his first major championship and, quite frankly, nobody saw it coming. The lefty plucked his way around Hoylake, avoiding Royal Liverpool’s penal bunkers while placing himself in the proper positions all week. His 6-under 65 on Friday sealed the deal, as nobody came close to catching him over the weekend. Harman held a 5-shot lead at the 36-hole mark, carried that same margin into Sunday, and won easily as a significant longshot over the world’s best.
Perhaps we see another dark horse win this week at Royal Troon. After all, this course produced the ultimate longshot winner in 2004, when Todd Hamilton defeated Ernie Els in a playoff. Hamilton arrived as the 56th-ranked player that week, yet prevailed as the Champion Golfer of the Year. He would never record a top-10 in a major again.
Predicting this championship is no easy task, but we do have a trio of dark horses we like. Here are three players who can shock the world and hoist the Claret Jug at Royal Troon:
3. Aaron Rai
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Aaron Rai waves to the crowd after the final round of the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.
Aaron Rai made his way into The Open by way of his strong finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he tied for fourth. A 7-under 63 on Sunday soared him up the leaderboard and booked him a ticket to Royal Troon—the top three finishers at the Scottish Open earned a spot in the field this week.
But his strong play at The Reinassance Club was no outlier. Rai has posted five straight top-20 finishes dating back to the RBC Canadian Open in early June. He tied for 19th at the U.S. Open, but three late bogies on Sunday at Pinehurst prevented him from finishing higher than that.
Rai then rebounded at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, tying for second. But he could have won in Detroit if not for a pedestrian, final-round even-par 72. Granted, the wind shifted, and conditions worsened as that afternoon wore on, but Rai could not take advantage of the 54-hole lead he shared with Akshay Bhatia.
Nevertheless, Rai ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in overall strokes gained. He has played flawlessly, ranking first in driver accuracy percentage at 72.97% and third in greens in regulation percentage at 72.47%. In the rare event he misses the green, he can get up and down, too, ranking 10th on tour in scrambling percentage. Putting has not been his strong suit, but he still ranks 54th in strokes gained on the green.
Good ball-strikers and those with solid short games win Open Championships, and Rai fits that bill. So it would certainly surprise many in the sporting world if Rai hoisted the Claret Jug with his two black gloves, but after looking at the numbers, it really would not be that surprising at all.
DraftKings Odds to Win: +6500
2. Jason Day
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Jason Day on the first hole during a practice round ahead of The 152nd Open at Royal Troon.
It’s somewhat surprising that Jason Day has not yet won a Claret Jug, but maybe this is his week.
At 36, Day has revitalized his career over the last couple of years. He won the AT&T Byron Nelson last year, marking his first PGA Tour victory since 2018. He has since recorded five top-10 finishes, including a tie for second at Royal Liverpool a year ago.
Yet, his ball-striking numbers this season are poor. Day currently ranks 149th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green and 147th in greens in regulation percentage—startling figures for one of the best iron players of the 2010s.
So, given that iron play is crucial in The Open, why do we like Day this week?
First, he has experience. Day tied for 22nd at Royal Troon in 2016 and is familiar with this track, which many others in this field are not. Second, Day has one of the best short games in the world. He is exquisite around the greens—a testament to his Australian roots—and a phenomenal putter. On top of that, Day has an incredible imagination, as he closes his eyes and visualizes each and every shot. Links golf requires creative vision, and Day has that. He can also hit any shot in his bag.
DraftKings Odds to Win: +10000
1. Russell Henley
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Russell Henley on the 6th hole during a practice round at Royal Troon.
The former Georgia Bulldog is, quite frankly, one of the most underrated players in the world.
He has made the cut at all three majors this season, with his best finish being a T-7 at the U.S. Open. He has five top 10s overall and most recently tied for 48th at the Travelers Championship, meaning he arrives in Scotland refreshed and ready to go.
Yet, Henley does not have a strong history at The Open. He has missed five of nine cuts and has not finished better than 20th. One MC of those came at Royal Troon in 2016, and he missed another at Royal Liverpool a year ago.
Still, Henley does not have many flaws in his game. He keeps it in play, relying on his accuracy more than distance to plot around golf courses. Plus, he is a solid ball-striker, ranking 30th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green.
On top of that, Henley has a reliable short game, as he ranks 26th on tour in scrambling percentage and 23rd in strokes gained around the greens. His game on paper matches well to links golf, but the results have not shown it as of yet.
Despite that, Henley has the game to flip the script and win golf’s oldest major. He has four PGA Tour victories, but this would mark a career-defining moment for the 110-to-1 longshot.
DraftKings Odds to Win: +11000
Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.
