Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Bryce Young is showing ludicrous potential, even if it’s not converting.
It wasn’t long ago that the NFL adage was “you need three years to judge a quarterback.” More recently, that accelerated to one year, as passers enter the league more prepared than at any point in history. Now it’s down to two games, at least according to the league’s harshest critics.
The predominant discourse following the Carolina Panthers 20-17 loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football was Bryce Young, and more specifically whether the No. 1 overall pick is a bust. This mind-boggling and stupid discussion is a product of football fans being box score conditioned by Fantasy Football, having the memory of a chipmunk, and perhaps most telling, the stunning number of people who watch football every week while having absolutely no clue how to interpret what they’re watching outside of big plays.
On paper Young has been very mediocre across Carolina’s two starts. He’s averaged 150 yards through the air, is failing to complete 60 percent of his passes, and has throw two touchdowns to two interceptions. There’s no question the Panthers offense is putrid, but the dishonesty it takes to look at the team and use it to draw conclusions about Young is absolutely mind-boggling.
So what exactly is happening in Carolina and why is Bryce struggling so far?
No. 1: His weapons are garbage
Expectations were low for Carolina’s receivers this season, but holy shit. Pardon my French, but across two games this unit is far and away the least-talented in the league — and it’s not particularly close.
The only wide receiver able to generate consistent catches is 33-year-old Adam Thielen, and even then it’s coming predominantly off screen passes or throws that are barely past the line of scrimmage. Nobody in the Panthers offense is getting separation, and in the talent is so lacking that defenses are able to sit in man coverage and comfortably stay in receiver’s pockets due to a lack of separation.
In the last two weeks only three pass catchers on the team total have managed to exceed NFL averages on separation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
On average Young’s receivers are getting 2.82 yards of separation per throw (below the NFL average), and when weighted for snap count this plummets to 2.26 per attempt. Not only does this ensure Young needs to perfectly place passes to get completions to begin with, but there is absolute no chance to gain YAC with a defender consistently in a receiver’s pocket.
The modern NFL is predicated on yards after the catch. On routes that didn’t originate in the backfield (screen passes or check downs) the Panthers receivers have given Young 55 yards of YAC on the season. For comparison, fellow rookie C.J. Stroud’s receivers (who aren’t amazing either) have picked up 212 yards of YAC on these same routes.
For 2023 this projects to a total of 448 yards of YAC on the YEAR. In 2022 61 percent of Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards came off YAC, for a total of 2,853.
The calculus is simple: Separation = YAC, YAC = Yardage. Neither are happening right now with Carolina’s weapons.
No. 2: The playcalling is a mess
This was pronounced on Monday night. On multiple occasions you could hear Bryce Young yelling “KILL, KILL” at the line of scrimmage — meaning that the first play he received from coaches wasn’t going to work based on the defense they were facing. Oftentimes he would then audible out of the second play, putting him up against a clock wall.
As it stands head coach Frank Reich is calling offensive plays for Carolina, and it’s been bad across two games. This could be a factor of understanding he lacks the personnel to run the offense he wants, but almost no passes are being called more than 15 yards downfield.
This team is offensively predictable in all the worst ways. They cannot do anything except run passes 5-10 yards downfield, or bounce running plays to the outside. The interior of Carolina’s offensive line is struggling, and the receivers can’t be relied on.
There’s a chance this could change if Reich hands over playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Something has to change in this area, because if Young is needing to kill play after play at the line of scrimmage there’s a disconnect happening between what Reich is seeing from the sidelines, and what Young is seeing from the defense he’s facing.
No. 3: Young has played some really good defenses … seriously
You’d probably laugh if I said the Falcons and Saints boast two of the best pass offenses in the NFL, but it could actually be true. Two games is far too small a sample size to draw larger conclusions about defense, but there is some credence to the idea that these teams are just really good at stopping the pass.
The other two quarterbacks to face the Falcons and Saints are Ryan Tannehill and Jordan Love. Hardly world-beaters, but still capable passers. Both experiences significant regressions against these defenses.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Saints: 16-for-34, 198 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
Jordan Love vs. Falcons: 14-for-25, 151 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
In both cases the quarterbacks struggled to make big plays. Tannehill experienced a 48 yard drop in passing against the Saints, and -24.5 YPA compared to playing the Chargers, while Love threw 94 fewer yards against the Falcons than the Bears, dropping his YPA by -2.6.
It’s worth keeping this in mind as the season progresses, because this could be a factor of Young playing two good defenses back-to-back, rather than a complete indictment of the Panthers offense.
Despite all this, Bryce Young is damn good.
It doesn’t take a genius to see the absolute ludicrous potential of Bryce Young. His pre-snap understanding is already on par with the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and he isn’t afraid to audible at the line of scrimmage and dial up the correct play for the situation (even if his teammates can’t execute it).
Young has been sacked six times this season due to the Panthers’ injury-riddled offensive line, but only given up 33 sack yards. He routinely steps up into the pocket or throws the ball away when pressure arrives, limiting the potential damage of a sack. In addition his processing time is ridiculous, as he’s being forced to throw the ball in an average of 1.4 seconds (per Pro Football Reference) before he’s met with pressure. That’s a FULL SECOND slower than C.J. Stroud has had to throw in Houston behind an offensive line that’s allowed 10 sacks.
There haven’t been a great deal of highlights to hang your hat on, but the Panthers final drive against the Saints showed the potential of Young when a team isn’t playing tight man coverage on bad receivers every down. Young went 9-for-11 for 61 yards, throwing the touchdown and then finishing the two point conversion on a broken play with nobody open, when he made and out-of-structure throw to Adam Thielen.
Young finds himself in a fairly similar situation to Trevor Lawrence in his first season. Two No. 1 overall picks who struggled due to lack of talent and bad coaching. In 2021 people were ready to condemn Lawrence a “bust” and anoint Mac Jones as the best QB in class. Fast forward to today and it’s one of the funniest NFL jokes you’ll hear.
There is absolutely nothing that indicates that Bryce Young is a bust, but the Panthers can bust Bryce Young. This team needs to figure things out on offense to make life easier for the rookie, because right now no quarterback in the NFL is being asked to do more with less.
