Establish the Fun: 3 critical NFL Playoffs matchups that will determine Wild Card Weekend

It’s all about the QBs on Wild Card Weekend.

Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and we like to establish that harder than a Nick Saban defense coaching Cover 7 (happy trails, coach). It’s the playoffs, folks! We’ve finally made it to the round of 14, with Wild Card weekend starting on Saturday. There are some really fun storylines going into the weekend (Stafford and Goff’s first battle since the trade, Tyreek returning to Kansas City, Mike McCarthy taking down the boogyman that once haunted the very team he coaches now) but on the field there are some really interesting matchups between both teams who have played already and teams who haven’t seen each other yet.

So, for this week I’m breaking down the biggest matchups in three of the games I find the most intriguing. Y’all ready? Let’s have some fun!

Old man and the rec Joe Flacco

Since Joe Flacco took over as QB of the Cleveland Browns, he has given the team a major boost in the passing game. He’s thrown for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns, and helped the Browns stabilize their offense en route to the No. 5 seed of the AFC playoffs. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has done an extremely impressive job morphing his offense around the strengths of his new QB, while elevating everyone else in the offense.

Where he’s really gotten cooking is in the play action passing game. The Browns are so diverse and powerful in the run game that their play action passing game has become especially potent. Across the entire season, the Browns have the third most play action passing attempts in the NFL, but with Flacco that number has gone up exponentially. Flacco leads the NFL in play action dropbacks since he became the starter, and on all those passes, he’s eighth in Average Throw Depth and ninth in Total EPA. Since Week 13, the Browns are second in the NFL in TD Rate using play action. Let’s see how they’ve used the play action game to turn Joe Flacco into a deep throwing machine.

Cleveland loves using Flacco on these half roll play action concepts. Joe Flacco is 39 years old—and he was never exactly the most effective or athletic QB outside the pocket. What these half rolls do is give Flacco a runway to throw the ball, while keeping the run action out of shotgun available. The Browns OL has done a really good job of keeping Flacco clean in play action, and Stefanski has worked wonders with the play action design. This one against the Jets really shows both Stefanski’s acumen as a playcaller and Flacco’s rapport with TE David Njoku (who is a big name to watch on Saturday: since Flacco took over he’s been one of the best TEs in football). The Jets are in QQH coverage and Cleveland comes out in 11 personnel, with rookie WR Cedric Tillman motioning into the trips side, but tight to the LOS.

As this play develops, you can see the half roll create a new throwing window with the right guard pulling in front of him to be his personal protector. Cleveland gets into a post with the slot receiver, and Njoku running a deep over, right behind the LBs who are moved up due to the run action. Flacco gets around, sets his feet and drops a dime over the dropping LB.

In the Browns’ win over the Texans (one where QB CJ Stroud did not play), Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Of those, 196 yards came on play action, along with a touchdown. The one TD, on a throw to Amari Cooper, is a perfect example of how the Browns get Flacco into play action and half rolls, while manipulating defensive coverages.

Here, the Browns are in heavier personnel, but backup C Nick Harris is in the backfield as a fullback. The Browns show outside zone action, but instead of only leaving the backside end free (because Flacco is 99.9% of the time not beating an EDGE defender in space), they don’t block the defensive tackle to the backside and Harris cut blocks him. This gives Flacco a massive area to get his feet under him and launch this pass to Amari Cooper. Joe Flacco in 2023 is much like a medieval ballista: extremely effective downfield, but it might take a little bit of time to load it up. When he gets an area to set his feet and let it rip, he can do this. The Texans might want to guard Amari Cooper this week.

This last one is a great example of Stefanski knowing when and how to design plays out of play action. Leaking TE Jordan Akins out of the backfield in heavy personnel, right at midfield. This is shot play range, and Stefanski knows he can get an advantage in heavy personnel with his tight ends. Both the backside corner and linebacker bite hard on the run fake and Akins has nothing but green grass in front of him.

The Houston Texans’ defense is fun and has a lot of budding players on that side of the ball, but they struggle against play action. They’ve had the sixth-highest play action passing attempts against them, and on those passes they’re giving up the most Yards per Coverage Snap in the NFL and the third highest EPA per passing attempt. The youth at linebacker has range, but can be exploited in play action, while also slowing down a pass rush that’s gotten heat on a lot of QBs recently.

Saturday afternoon should be a fun one between these two upstart teams.

The Rams out-gun and out-man man coverage

The Detroit Lions enter the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2016, but they go up against a familiar face: QB Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. Detroit has the advantage when they have the ball, but in order to keep this from being a shootout, they have to slow down the Rams’ passing game.

If they want to stop LA from torching them downfield, they might want to ease off the man coverage. Per Sports Information Solutions, Detroit is 11th in man coverage snaps, but on those snaps they have the second highest EPA allowed per pass and have given up the fifth-most Yards per Coverage Snap. Oh yeah, they’ve also given up the third most touchdowns in man coverage this year.

They’ll be facing a team in the Rams who have faced a lot of man coverage this year. The Rams offense has seen man coverage on 191 dropbacks, sixth highest in the NFL. On those dropbacks, Los Angeles is 12th in Positive Play Rate and total EPA, but their receivers are ninth in Yards per Route Run and 11th in EPA per target. Earlier this season I wrote about how the Rams use motion to create leverage and angle advantages, and they’ve done that all year against man coverage. We can get a good look at what the Rams are going to attempt to do against the Lions’ man coverage in their victory over the Saints (both Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn came from New Orleans).

The Rams shift WR Cooper Kupp to the left side to create a trips formation, and then use the “cheat” motion with Puka Nacua at the snap. The Saints are in Cover 1, and the Rams get into mesh rail that way. Nacua’s motion helps create an advantage against the man coverage, and it allows him to run away from the defender while at a better angle.

Against the Cowboys, Dallas torched Detroit in man coverage. CeeDee Lamb went off, and there were plays like this littered all over the tape:

Doesn’t seem like a great time to be struggling in man coverage. Los Angeles might not have a receiver as singularly dominant as Lamb, but Puka Nacua is a record setting rookie and Cooper Kupp can go off at any time. Plus, Stafford is playing at the same high level as Dak Prescott. Seems like a problem for the Lions passing defense!

An area where the Rams especially obliterate man coverage is in playing against traditional man coverage tendencies. Against Cover 1 especially (the Lions tied for the 11th most snaps of Cover 1 in the NFL this year), you want to get a lot of crossing routes, players running away from the coverage. That, or you can pick a side vertically and put a strain on the single safety. Here, the Rams motion into a 3×1 set, and Nacua runs a route that looks like an in-breaker. The defensive back is on the correct hip to play an in-breaker, but Nacua breaks it to the sideline at the top of his route. He catches the DB off guard, and the single safety can’t get over top of it. Stafford puts it on him and it’s a big play.

This might be the best game of the weekend, one that everyone is going to be watching. For the Rams to pull off the upset, the LA passing game is going to have to be on point.

Baker Mayfield has too much dip on the chip: that’s a good thing?

If you haven’t been paying attention, the Eagles defense has been very, very bad. Since Matt Patricia took over for a demoted Sean Desai, the Eagles are 26th in the NFL in Success Rate and 29th in EPA/play. Where they’ve been especially weak is up the spine of the defense: the linebackers and safeties. Since Patricia took over, the Eagles are fourth in the NFL in Yards per Coverage Snap allowed and 11th in Positive Play Rate allowed when teams target their linebackers, slot defenders or safeties. Combine that with an expanding injury list, and this Eagles team is one that can get got by a QB who simply does not care.

Enter, Baker Mayfield.

The Bucs QB has undergone a career revival with offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and where the Bucs QB has done his damage the most is over the middle of the field, attacking weak linebackers and secondaries. Mayfield is eighth in EPA on all passes over the middle of the field and has thrown 17 TD passes in that area. Being in the McVay system has helped him in this area, and that play has translated to Tampa under Canales.

The problems Philly has been facing defensively is opposing offenses isolating their linebackers and slot defenders in coverage. When the Eagles play their zone coverages, their backside defenders become a major problem. The backside of empty formations is where Arizona got them, and it’s something the Bucs can exploit.

On this play, the Eagles have to drop EDGE Haason Reddick in coverage. When defenses play five man fronts, someone has to drop in order to keep your two-high structures. Philadelphia is in QQH, with Quarters to the backside. However, Reddick doesn’t get nearly a good enough punch to disrupt the route, and the safety can’t get to him.

On Darius Slayton’s touchdown in Week 18, the Eagles were in quarters, and the linebacker (Nicholas Morrow) gets lost in the sauce. On the backside of quarters coverage, it’s basically goes like this: the backside corner has the outside receiver everywhere he goes, and the backside linebacker has the slot receiver. Morrow forgets where he’s supposed to be and Slayton is wide open.

Where the Bucs and Canales have been good is beating teams that isolate their EDGES and LBs in coverage. They can get into a variety of personnel packages and keep defenses in bigger personnel to attack weak points.

The Buccaneers are in 12 personnel, with both tight ends to the boundary side. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are to the field side. Green Bay matches with their base, and because they want to keep their two-high shell in QQH, that means EDGE Preston Smith has to drop to the field side. Canales knows that the Packers enjoy doing this out of base, and Evans runs a slat right behind Smith. Mayfield fires a dart behind him and Evans turns it into a first down.

The Buccaneers haven’t been shy about putting their best receivers in the slot to take advantage of these weak points. Both WRs Chris Godwin and Evans are at the top of the Bucs’ leaderboard in routes run and targets from the slot, which bodes poorly for the Eagles defense. Philadelphia’s defense tops the NFL in completions allowed to slot receivers, and are tied for fifth in touchdowns allowed. They’re fifth in Positive Play Rate allowed as well, meaning the offense has a high chance of a positive EPA when targeting their slot receivers against the Eagles defense.

This is where Godwin thrives. He’s always been one of my favorite players in the NFL, and really works in the slot against slower linebackers and weaker DBs. Here, he absolutely cooks LB D’Vondre Campbell on a stick-nod concept and gives Mayfield another easy MOF completion.

Finally, Canales uses packaged red zone plays to isolate linebackers in space against his backs and tight ends. One of my favorite calls he had this year was in the Green Bay game, on this Rachaad White TD. The orbit motion pulls the flat defender down, and the over route by the tight end slows the linebacker, letting White get vertical and find himself one on one with the endzone ahead. Advantage: White.

This one from the Jags game also stood out, but it went to TE Payne Durham. The Bucs are in 12 personnel, but they have Godwin lined up in the backfield. Jacksonville matches with their base, and the chess match begins. The motion by Godwin pulls the safety down because the Jags are in Cover 1, and Durham gets the best of a Jaguars linebacker who normally doesn’t defend routes vertically. Can’t you just see this happening to the Eagles linebackers on Monday?

To me, Bucs-Eagles comes down to Mayfield. The QB has had moments of brilliance this year, sandwiched between moments of sheer ineptitude. However, Mayfield at his best is a chaos ball: he always has too much dip on his chip, and that leads to some good and bad moments. The Eagles are going to try and ball control this game with their run defense, especially if WR AJ Brown is less than 100%. However, if Mayfield can exploit the second level matchups, this game could swing to Tampa’s favor, at home.