Plus, how does Travis Etienne take over the lead back role?
Folks, we’re almost at the halfway point of the NFL season. I know, crazy right?
I’ve been rocking with Establish the Fun for about seven weeks at this point, so I wanted to say a quick thank you to everyone who’s read and followed. This is my first weekly column, like EVER, and being able to share a few of the thoughts I have on the NFL as a whole with everyone is really cool. I’m really lucky to have this opportunity, and hopefully everyone will continue to follow along (if not, that’s also fine, I understand).
We’re getting spooky this week for Establish the Fun, with a few teams and players getting real scary before the pivotal part of the season kicks in. Teams are starting to find the perfect groove of concepts and plays that put their players in the best situation to succeed, and it’ll be interesting to see how these team trends develop as the season continues on.
Let’s start with an offense that might be hitting their stride at the perfect time in the Queen City.
Bengals cut out the middleman and load the gun
For most of last year and through about five weeks of this year, the Bengals offense was quite predictable.
If they were under center, it was a run.
If they were in the shotgun, it was a pass.
It made their offense stale, and the numbers displayed this in the early part of the season. Against the run, teams could key in on the run because they would give off an obvious tell: QB Joe Burrow was under center. Then, in shotgun, they weren’t able to generate the same explosive plays as last year because they were seeing a lot of two-high coverages from defenses that expected a pass. Through the first five games of the season, only the Commanders saw more two high shells in shotgun dropbacks. This reduced their passing game to dinking and dunking, and teams could sit on all the routes because they knew a pass was coming.
Well, then the Bengals did this:
The Bengals decided to cut out the Jekyll and Hyde in their offense and go full shotgun. This is extremely notable, considering head coach Zac Taylor is a McVay acolyte. They want to run outside zone from under center with jet motion. For Taylor to do the self scouting and realize that both the offensive line and the flow of the offense works better going full shotgun is extremely smart, and the Bengals offense has exploded because of it.
Since Week 5, they’ve barely gone under center, and yet the offense has become more explosive. They’ve managed to get their offense out of neutral and hitting max speed, while taking out the predictability of the offense.
Their explosive first half against the Falcons was a perfect display of how the Bengals have turned up the shotgun usage and taken the predictability out of their offense. Against Atlanta, their shotgun runs had an Expected Points Added of 0.06 per attempt, sixth highest in the NFL among teams that ran ten times or more out of the gun (via Sports Info Solutions). They’re getting favorable numbers in the box count because teams are so worried about the passing game that their gun run has become so much better.
This run might not look like much, but look at how vertical the right side of the offensive line gets in the run game. Being able to create holes and creases in the run game is extremely helpful when the boxes are lighter.
By running so effectively, this holds the intermediate levels of the defense, and now the Bengals offense can get back to what they were doing in 2021: throwing BOMBS. This is a classic Bengals concept called 989. The two outside receivers run “9” routes, or go routes, and the inside receiver runs an “8” or a post. This puts the safety in a bind, especially when you run Cover 2 like the Falcons do here. Because the safety to the two receiver side is faced with two vertical routes coming right at him, he falls and Tyler Boyd walks right into the endzone. This is the Bengals offense we remember.
Of course, when the Bengals offense is working like this they can hit teams over the head with a constant diet of Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase, which is what happened on this beautiful touchdown. When the Bengals are in shotgun, it allows Burrow to see the field more and essentially become the point guard for the offense, much like what he was doing at LSU. This throw is beautiful, man. Look at the timing and the ball placement to beat the safety over the top and give Chase enough area to get his feet in.
This is what the Bengals offense should be, because they have a QB who can make you right in the shotgun passing game and a trio of receivers who can all operate together. The Bengals might be fun again, and their move back to the shotgun-exclusive offense is why. We’ll see against the Browns on Monday.
UPDATE:
Bengals’ WR Ja’Marr Chase is dealing with a hip injury that is expected to sideline him 4-6 weeks and makes him a prime candidate for injured reserve, per sources. Chase visited with a hip specialist Wednesday and is seeking more answers about his injury.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 27, 2022
Well … gonna go cry.
Run ETN
The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets engaged in a mini blockbuster trade when the Jaguars traded James Robinson to the New York Jets for a conditional sixth round pick. While this helps the Jets in wake of the Breece Hall injury, it signals the Travis Etienne era as the lead back in the Jaguars’ backfield.
Since Week 4, a majority of the snaps in the Jaguars backfield has gone to Etienne. Week 7 was no different, as Etienne accumulated 80 percent of the running back snaps in the Jaguars’ loss to the Giants. Since Week 4, Etienne has been sixth in the entire NFL in broken tackle + missed tackle rate (minimum 30 carries), per SIS, and 118 of his 303 yards have come after contact.
The main calling card for Etienne right now is burst and acceleration. When he sees a crease, he can turn a two yard gain into 25 yards, or can make gain a big one. The Jaguars run a crack toss out of shotgun here, and coupled with a great block by Zay Jones, the play goes for 40 yards. Watch how Etienne’s speed forces the DB to hesitate and take a bad angle, which is something you absolutely can’t do against Etienne.
Against the Colts, Etienne ripped off a couple of big runs that showed off his dynamic speed and acceleration. The Jaguars run trap-wham (guard pulls, TE takes on DT in the hole) and Etienne takes the crease and turns it into a big play. Great all around work by the Jaguars, and whew when Etienne hits the gas pedal it’s a beautiful sight to see.
Where Etienne can improve, however, is his vision. For every 30 or 40 yard run, there’s a one yard gain or a loss on the play. During the same time period (weeks 4-7), Etienne has had 23.8 percent of his runs stuffed, meaning they get stopped for no gain or a loss of yards, fifth in the entire league during that time period.
Where he gets in trouble is bouncing plays to the edge too quickly and not letting holes develop, and it popped up during the Jaguars loss to the Giants on Sunday. However, he did show good vision on his TD run, setting up the safety then bouncing into the open hole, slowing the safety down enough to get into the end zone.
If Etienne can clean up the vision and work on pass protection, he should prove himself to be an every down back, and a darn good one as well.
The Jaguars play the Denver Broncos in London on Sunday, and the Broncos defense has been one of the best units in the league, despite their record (looks at Russell Wilson). In order to get explosives (which is something the Jaguars have struggled with), Etienne will have to play a big role.
Super Grover with a G
So I’m not sure how many have noticed, but Colts DT Grover Stewart has been BALLING this season. He’s second among defensive tackles in total tackles and has four tackles for loss this season, 15th in the NFL.
On Sunday, Stewart had 12 TACKLES. Yes, 12. At defensive tackle. It’s the most in the NFL this season as a defensive lineman and another notch in what has been a breakout year for Stewart. These aren’t just gimme tackles either, tackles made seven yards past the line of scrimmage. He’s straight up beating dudes at the point of attack.
The Colts are in an Over front on this play against the Titans. This means that the defense sets their three-technique (defensive tackle lined up on the outside shoulder of the guard) to the side that the tight end is on. Stewart is on the other side, meaning he’s in a shade technique, in between the center and guard. The Titans try and run inside zone to Stewart’s side, and watch how he deconstructs the double team. He takes on the guard first, beats the guard which throws off the center, then makes the play.
This next play is awesome because of Stewart’s first step explosiveness and then the ability to redirect. He’s now the 3-technique and slants inside on the snap as the Titans run split zone. This throws the guard off his path so the linebacker can flow to the ball, but Stewart wasn’t done there. He kept ripping through the center, not allowing him to get Stewart’s chest, and makes the tackle. This was sick stuff, and a great play by Stewart.
That rep was so nice he did it twice. Stewart has shown up in the run game in a big way this year, using first step quickness and hand quickness to beat interior linemen.
The Colts are in a tailspin right now, and are facing the Commanders on Sunday despite starting Sam Elingher instead of Matt Ryan. The Colts defense will have to put together one of their best performances of the season, and Stewart will have to play a major role.
