Establish the Fun: Bijan Robinson becomes the Soul Eater weapon the Atlanta Falcons needed

Plus, Darren Waller becomes the focal point of the Giants offense.

You know, they always say the sequel is almost never as good as the original. Lion King 2 isn’t as good as the first one (although Lion King 1 1⁄2 might have some say), the second bite of a sandwich is never as good as the first one and Boruto is definitely not as good as Naruto.

However, we’re going to try and break the mold here at Establish the Fun, because that’s what this is about. We’re going to try and be more like Shrek 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2, rather than Cars 2 over here. Breaking molds and finding the most exciting things you need to keep an eye on around the world of football. Because football is fun, and for the second straight season here at SB Nation, I would like to establish that. So, without further ado, let’s get into some things you need to be watching as the NFL season kicks off.

Bijan Robinson: Ultimate Offensive Weapon

When the Atlanta Falcons selected RB Bijan Robinson in the first round of the NFL Draft, the goal was very simple to see: on an offense filled with versatile weapons, Robinson becomes the ultimate Soul Eater style of weapon for head coach Arthur Smith to use in his offense.

The Atlanta Falcons offense is less reliant on traditional positional norms. Sure, they can be in 12 personnel (1 back, 2 TEs), but one of those TEs will be split out wide like an isolated receiver and a back can be in the slot. Maybe they’re in 22 personnel (2 backs, 2 TEs) but instead of being in an I-formation like what you’d normally assume, they can split the backs out wide and have the TEs in the backfield. This all just creates problems for the defense because it becomes impossible to cover. If you play them with heavier personnel, the goal is to let their backs and tight ends beat slower LBs. If the defense decides to play with lighter packages, then the Falcons have no problem bludgeoning you in the run game.

That’s where Ultima Weapon Bijan Robinson comes in. One of the things that stood out the most about Robinson entering the draft was how positionally versatile he was. Let’s start out as a runner. Among all CFB backs in 2022 with at least 150 carries, Robinson was second in Broken Tackle and Missed Tackle rate. Meaning he was making guys miss…a LOT. One of the best traits of the best backs in the league is making the first guy miss, and for an offense that wants to generate explosives and can (3rd in Sports Info Solutions’ Boom Rate on runs by RBs, 3rd in Yards After Contact per attempt), Robinson is like adding an ACME dynamite stick to the Wile E. Coyote concoction of an offense the Falcons have.

From the first carry Robinson had as an Atlanta Falcon in the preseason, it was evident what he can bring to the Falcons’ run game. A staple of the Atlanta run game is a lead zone away from the tight end side, most of the time accompanied by a motion. Robinson gets the ball, and you can see the acceleration, burst, and the ability to make the first guy miss in the hole. This is the Soul Eater weapon Robinson is in this offense, and it’ll set him up for instant success in the NFL.

The versatility Robinson brings should also be evident in the passing game. He’s not just a checkdown target who can eat up yards if nobody is open, the Falcons can design routes for him specifically, from the backfield or in the slot. In 2022, among all college backs with 25 targets, Robinson led CFB in yards per route run, meaning he was actually running real routes downfield. This would be a phenomenal route for a wide receiver, let alone a running back. Robinson gets the safety to open up his hips to the outside, then slips back to the inside, high points the ball and comes down with the catch. Insanely impressive, and something to look out for when he’s playing in Atlanta.

This is an aspect of the game the Falcons didn’t really have or use for their backs with Cordarrelle Patterson on and off the field. They were near the bottom of the NFL in yards per route run for RBs, despite having the second most routes run from the slot and out wide for the position in the NFL. Robinson will give them some juice in that area.

It remains yet to be seen if Falcons QB Desmond Ridder is good enough to keep this ship steady, but with Robinson and the mass collection of talent in the Atlanta offensive room, there’s a lot of potential for success here.

Darren Waller calls Iso

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that the New York Giants’ offense overachieved in Year One under head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. They were fantastic at running the ball and did a bunch of wacky things to keep defenses on their toes, but they struggled to throw the ball efficiently. Their yards per route run was a measly 1.3, tied with the Bears at the bottom of the league, and their first down rate for all pass catchers was 25th in the entire league. With defenses keying in more on the run game and Daniel Jones (!) legs as a threat, they needed a pass catcher who could both create their own separation when they needed a play, and someone who could help them become more efficient over the middle of the field. Giants’ pass catchers were 12th in the NFL in Routes Run over that area, yet were 15th in Positive Play Rate and 18th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per target in that area.

In comes Darren Waller, the supersized tight end from the Raiders who the Giants traded for. What we know about Waller is this: he is a mismatch in the passing game, making up for some of his deficiencies as a blocker. In the preseason this year, we got a little bit of a taste of how Daboll and Kafka plan to use Waller, and to put it in basketball terms, it’s plain old “mouse in the house”. “Mouse in the house” is when a defender is matched up on a player that’s significantly taller than them, and for the Giants, they plan on calling ISO plays for their big guy all season. In Waller’s only action in the preseason, Kafka and Daboll did a great job of using him in the underneath and MOF areas not only for him to win against smaller, slower defenders, but to open up lanes for other guys as well.

This is the first offensive play for Waller as a Giant. 11 personnel, with Waller lined up as an H-back close to the line of scrimmage. Waller then motions across the formation to the right and remains in the slot, and as the ball is snapped, WR Darius Slayton runs a clear out route, basically opening the MOF for Waller. Waller is given an option route, basically to beat the man in front of him inside or outside, based on how the defense is aligned. This is ISO ball, designed to get Waller and the Giants some easy offense. Waller is matched up on LB Shaq Thompson here, but look at how the route by Slayton creates kind of a natural pick, letting Waller roam.

This one is simple, but another way for the Giants to make things a lot easier on themselves offensively. New York is in a 3×1 set, meaning 3 wideouts to Daniel Jones’ left and only Waller as the isolated receiver. However, before the ball is snapped, the back goes into “fast” motion to the 3 wideout side, meaning he’s running out there as the ball is being snapped. This forces a linebacker to open his hips away from Waller’s side to account for the now four receiving threats on one side.

Now Waller is one on one with a corner, and we know what time it is. “Mouse in the house,” baby. Waller is simply too large of a person to move off his spot and with the middle of the field vacated, it’s easy offense for the Giants. This is like a big man muscling his way into a 12 foot turnaround jumper over a smaller guard, it’s too easy for Waller.

This next one is arguably the most important one, however, and it’s for the situation. It’s third down, gotta have it to move the chains. The Giants were 17th in the NFL in Success Rate on third down passes, and QB Daniel Jones was 20th among all passers with at least 85 attempts on third down in Positive Play Rate on such passes. Giant’s pass catchers on third down? 19th in first down rate last year. This is where Waller is going to help because you can design passing games around his ability.

The Giants start in a 2×1 formation, with Jamison Crowder lined up in the backfield one one side of Jones, with a RB on the other side of Jones. Crowder motions out to the slot, making Waller the new number 3 receiver, and as the ball is snapped, this is essentially a clear out route for Waller. This is giving Melo the ball on the right wing near the elbow at MSG and getting the f*** out the way. Both receivers to the left of Waller run vertical routes, taking their defenders with them. Because the Panthers were in Quarters coverage, this means that the LB has to deal with Waller, who has an entire side of the field to operate with.

Mouse in the house. First down. Make things easy on yourselves, folks.

Where Waller might have the most impact, though is in aiding others to get open. This play gets busted because of a pressure, but you can see at the top of the screen the attention Waller commands and how that pries open a window in the middle of the field. This is when you send a double team at the guy and he skips a pass over to the three point shooter. Offense building on top of offense, something the Giants did through pure scheming last year, but now have a player to base it around in the passing game.

Where I’m intrigued by the addition of Waller into the Giants offense is how teams defend them. As NFL offenses put bigger personnel on the field, they want to force the opposition to play bigger as well. However, as we noted at the top, Waller isn’t exactly a threat as a blocker. A problem the Giants could run into is teams matching their 12 personnel with nickel, knowing Waller isn’t a threat as a blocker. The Chiefs ran into this problem in 2021 with Travis Kelce, and their solution was simple: keep adding TEs to the field. That could be a solution we see, and might’ve gotten a glimpse of by the Giants in the same drive. The Giants threw the ball out of 13 personnel under center, and if not for a fantastic play by S Vonn Bell, this would’ve hit big for Waller.

The Giants play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football this week, so keep an eye out for the Waller isolation plays, especially against a versatile safety group like the Cowboys.

UTSA hears the Belk

Among all the uber impressive team performances in Week 1 of the college football season, one that went under the radar is the Houston defense shutting down UTSA in their 17-14 victory. This was a Roadrunners offense that returned star QB Frank Harris and a bevy of talent at the skill position, and Houston held them to only 209 yards passing and forced three turnovers. Defensive coordinator Doug Belk has quietly been one of the better defensive coordinators at any level of the sport, but this year could be his best year yet, starting with this game.

When looking at this chart (via GameOnPaper.com), a few things stand out: how poorly UTSA threw the ball, and how poor they were on third downs.

Belk and the Houston defense did a lot to force them into uncomfortable situations, and it started up front.

What stood out about Houston in the UTSA game was how light the boxes were up front. The Cougars played a lot of man coverage on gotta have it downs, and were perfectly fine with leaving their guys on islands against UTSA’s talented receiving core. Up front, they got after Harris to the tune of being pressured on 22.5% of Frank Harris’ dropbacks. On the one sack they got in the game, it was a phenomenal long arm rush by star EDGE Nelson Ceaser, but everything across the board is completely covered. Houston did a great job of communicating and passing off routes in man coverage, something that isn’t easy to do.

This is a third down draw, which on paper should work against man coverage. Back motions to empty, takes the linebacker with him. However, Belk sends the backside linebacker on a blitz who was kind of in an overhang spot, and they get a two-yard loss. Gotta just tip your cap on this one, the offensive line doesn’t even account for the backer blitzing.

Now let’s talk about those interceptions, because they were a mix of both great plays and great playcalls. Houston primarily ran Cover 1 and Cover 3 on third downs, and late in the game, UTSA had a spacing concept designed to beat that. However, disciplined coverage by the Cougars and an awesome jump on the ball (literally) by LB Treylin Payne gets this one going the other way.

Look at the nickel pointing out the underneath route to the LB, man. They were all over these passing concepts like white on rice, and it was really cool to see unfold. Nickel corner Malik Fleming had two INTs and his second one was a perfect heads up play. Houston is in Cover 3 on 2nd down, and UTSA has a play action pass called with Harris rolling to his left. Fleming runs with the action, but sees Harris’ eyes and darts back to the over route, picking it off. A phenomenal heads up play, and great instruction by Belk to the Houston defense.

In Houston’s first year in the Big 12, the offenses they face will get more and more difficult. However, Belk and the Cougars have the talent and the playcalling to turn every game into a defensive slugfest, and that should make them very fun to watch throughout the season.