Establish the Fun: Brock Purdy breaks the 49ers’ glass ceiling

It’s time to have a sane Brock Purdy discussion.

Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and I’m establishing that quicker than the 4×4 relay team the Miami Dolphins currently employ. We’re at the six week point in the season, and it really does feel like we’re beginning to see teams lean into the true identity of what they’ll be on both sides of the ball this year. Every team has a gimmick, like professional wrestling. It’s now up to the respective teams to get the gimmick over to the point that they win games and make the Super Bowl.

So let’s dive into some fun things that I’ve seen around the football world this week, and we’re going to start with a Brock Purdy discussion (/dives into muck of football Twitter).

Brock Purdy getting Brock Sturdy

Folks, it’s time to have a Brock Purdy discussion.

The San Francisco 49ers are undefeated and have the most efficient offense in the NFL by both Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and Success Rate, and Purdy has been the guiding hand behind what is arguably the best offense in the NFL. His Total EPA and per play EPA are both tops in the league, per Sumer Sports, and has created a football Twitter discussion so toxic and divisive you would think you’re in the NBA2K online chat.

From my perspective, multiple things can be true, and it’s what we’re going to be getting into here:

Yes, Brock Purdy has the benefit of the best playcaller in the NFL and a collection of skill talent that would make every football coach jealous.

However, Purdy himself has also improved his play and his growth in certain areas (plus his deviation from other 49er Shanahan QBs) has aided in the liftoff of the 49ers offense.

Let’s start with the numbers that stand out. Per Sports Information Solutions, through five games this season, Purdy is third among all 49er QBs since 2020 in Average Throw Depth with 7.4 (min. 30 attempts), and the only two QBs above him (Trey Lance in 2021 and CJ Beathard in 2020) only have 48 and 37 respective attempts compared to Purdy’s 136 through five games. In addition, Purdy has also been relatively accurate as well, posting a 76.2% On Target Rate in the same allotted time period. If you want to compare Purdy to the version of himself last year, 2022 Purdy is less efficient in total EPA, his Average Throw Depth is a whole yard shorter and his On Target Rate is lower. Purdy has made small improvements in certain areas that have elevated this offense, even by just a minute amount. It was on display in the 49ers emphatic victory over the Dallas Cowboys as well.

Let’s take his first touchdown to TE George Kittle. Last year, what made Purdy so much different from Jimmy G was what I call the “Free Bird” moments. “Free Bird” moments are when the QB (especially a Shanahan QB) is under pressure and the Free Bird guitar solo comes on in his head. The volume you turn it up to determines how wild you get out the pocket. When you hear the guitar start up, you know what time it is. While Garoppolo was a fine QB in the 49ers’ offense, where he didn’t excel was under pressure and creation outside of the pocket. Last year, when pressured, Garoppolo’s On Target Rate goes from 74.2% to 67.5%, and his Interception Rate jumps from 1.8% to 4.6%. This year, Purdy goes from 77.4% to 72.7% in On Target Rate.

His “Free Bird” monitor is always off the charts (and that’s both good and bad—we’ll get to that later), but it gives Shanahan and the Niners offense a QB who can at least try and do something out of the pocket. This play breaks down, and Purdy is forced to move off of his spot. Garoppolo is falling apart in this situation—hell, we’ve seen him fall apart in this situation before. Purdy keeps his eyes up, avoids the pressure and throws the touchdown to Kittle. Purdy’s movement and Free Bird solo moments aren’t always great, but here it’s the difference between a sack and a touchdown.

The Free Bird guitar solo moments also help when it comes to throwing passes in congested areas. Purdy trusts his arm talent (maybe a bit too much) to throw passes in congested areas, and this is where the skill position talent of the Niners comes in. The margin for error in those areas is so freakin’ wide that Purdy might not be the most accurate over that area, but the Niners have the MonStars catching the ball and Kyle Shanahan can scheme the hell out of an in-breaker.

However, there are times where it all connects together for the Niners, such as on this beautiful throw to move the chains. I love the switch release and route by WR Brandon Aiyuk (an ETF veteran), who gets his DB to open his hips to the sideline before darting back in to the middle of the field. This is a fantastic throw by Purdy with anticipation and accuracy to get the ball over the LB and into Aiyuk’s hands.

Another area where Purdy has excelled, and improved upon the Jimmy G Niners offense is passing outside of the numbers. Because Garoppolo was so comfortable over the middle of the field, it became the only spot where he’d throw. He was a faulty robot, less Terminator and more Bender from Futurama. Purdy is a Shanahan QB, yes, but he’s more willing to take those throws on the outside and truly open the 49ers offense to every area of the field.

His best throw against the Cowboys came on a play that didn’t even count. The Cowboys get to Cover 3 in a late rotation, and the pressure tightens the pocket on Purdy. He doesn’t panic, but hits Aiyuk again in stride to pick up a big gain to the left edge of the field. A beautiful throw that gets negated because of holding.

Overall, the 49ers are very, very good and Purdy is the guiding hand behind one of the best offenses in the NFL. It’s valid to say that he’s being aided by elite talent at other positions and still makes boneheaded throws that should be intercepted. However, it’s also fair to point out that Purdy has made slight improvements in his individual play that help the offense get to different levels. And that’s fine to acknowledge! Purdy might not be the best QB in the NFL—hell I’m not sure if he’s top 10. But he’s playing the best football of his young career, and that’s very cool.

George Pickens runs your fade

Let’s face it: the Pittsburgh Steelers are a bad offense. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is one of the worst playcallers in the NFL and QB Kenny Pickett has yet to make the jump in regular season play. However, the Steelers’ skill position players are cool as hell and WR George Pickens is the leader of that group.

Pickens doesn’t do everything well; his 2.1 Yards of Separation is near the bottom of all qualified receivers per NFL’s Next Gen Stats and his ability after the catch is merely ok. What he is, however, is one of the best receivers in the NFL at the catch point on vertical routes. He is the sniper in every anime group; think Takeshi Hinawa from Fire Force, or Usopp from One Piece. They do one thing well and one thing only, and Pickens is just like that.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Pickens has run the fourth-most go routes, back shoulder and regular fades in the NFL through five games, and has been targeted the most in the NFL on all those routes. The result? Pickens is ninth among WRs and TEs in EPA per target on those routes (min. 5 targets) and eighth in Positive Play Rate. Pickens has a certain set of skills that makes him very good at this singular thing, and it has saved the Steelers offense from literally falling off a cliff.

The thing that stands out the most about Pickens on these routes is that he’s not winning with separation vertically—all of these are contested catches. Yet, he wins most of the time without using speed. His body control to high point the ball in the air and keep his feet in bounds is special at his size, and gives the Steelers offense a get out of jail-free card most times. Against the Ravens, he was boxing out every defender who guarded him. This back shoulder play is just dirty. Look at how he boxes out the defender from the end zone angle, he forces the DB to either play through him and draw a penalty or he’s simply too small to make a play on the ball. Pickens is the master of the “too little” gesture.

With Pickens being as good as he is at these jump balls, the Steelers literally don’t run much plays outside of “George save us” in the passing game. They’ll isolate Pickens on the backside of a play, give him a go route and tell Pickett to throw it in his area code. insert stats here. Pickens has also gotten good at the “legal push off” portion of playing receiver on the outside. Instead of creating space through footwork, speed or acceleration, Pickens chooses to create separation through sheer willpower and force, a man’s man at the position.

Like I said earlier, Pickens isn’t the most complete receiver on the outside when it comes to these vertical routes. However, you can see him continue to add more elements to his game in that area outside of just “run through a MFer face”. On the gamebreaking touchdown against Baltimore, Pickens displayed the ability to create separation late instead of forcing it to be a contested catch, and the result was a touchdown. He might not be the most complete receiver, but the one thing that he does is fun as hell.

Pickens and the Steelers have a bye week on Sunday, but when they play again, watch out for Pickens and his ability to run your fade (route).

Seattle’s Go-Go Offense

Through five games this season, the Seattle Seahawks have once again been super fun on the offensive side of the ball. One area where they’ve excelled is in 12 personnel. Despite the thought of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba changing what personnel they would be the most explosive and dynamic out of, it’s actually when they have 2 TEs on the field that they get into some really cool stuff. The Seahawks are fifth in Total EPA passing out of 12 personnel and first in Positive Play Rate passing out of it, by a massive margin. When they run out of 12, they’re first in EPA per attempt and Positive Play Rate, both impressive at this stage of the season. Now, they can line up in what your traditional ideas of 12 personnel looks like, but my favorite one is when they line up like this:

Or, something like this:

I LOVE this formation so much, and it reminds me of the Go-Go offense that former William and Mary and current UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion ran that would present multiple options in the backfield (The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz wrote about it here). Instead of multiple backs in the formation, however, the Seahawks use two tight ends, forcing teams to play them bigger and now offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can get creative.

I love watching Seattle run out of this formation, because then they can use motion and the two tight ends aligned next to each other in the backfield for a running start and to create better angles. Against the Panthers, the Seahawks motioned RB Kenneth Walker out just a little bit to create the illusion of running out wide, only to bring him back in jet motion to run outside zone against a five man front. From the end zone, it’s a lot easier to see the angles created for Walker and the TEs Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson, as the Panthers’ DBs fight to stay over the top. A big run out of this formation.

That little burst motion out by the back can also be used in the passing game to influence second level defenders, as it did against the New York Giants in this next clip. Watch how the linebackers are at first influenced by the run action which frees up the middle of the field for WR DK Metcalf. The Seahawks also tag a split block here for Fant as well. Just really cool to see them diversify out of this personnel grouping and formation.

What I also enjoy about this is that they involve the TEs in the passing game out of the backfield. This causes confusion for the second level defenders and opens up the Seahawks passing game without sacrificing the pass catchers on the team. Against Detroit, they had a really fun rep of Flood out of that fun formation. Because both TEs are aligned to the same side in the backfield, the linebacker flowing to that side has to make a snap decision on which TE to run with, and ends up in no man’s land. WR Tyler Lockett’s vertical route takes away the corner and Parkinson is left wide open. Just good overall design.

Seattle has a big matchup with another talented defense in the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, and how often they dip into this formation is going to be something I’m watching. It could be a way to play with the eyes of the defenders in the secondary, and an easy way to get explosives out of bigger personnel.