Establish the Fun: Christian Wilkins turns into a star

Also, the Eagles pass rush holds the key to a long Philly playoff run

Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and I am continuing to establish that, even though we’re coming up on the end of the regular season.

It really feels wild to think that the playoffs are right around the corner, and teams are beginning to load up for a long playoff run. The end of the regular season still has pivotal games, with seeding and all but one divisional crown on the line (the 49ers have won the NFC West).

The brightest stars in the NFL are going to start making the biggest plays in the biggest moments of the season, so before you turn on your TV this (/checks notes) Saturday? (/yells offstage) “We sure about this? The games start on Saturday this week?” Yes, Saturday, heres who you need to keep your eyes on.

Christian Wilkins: More than a Mic’d up legend

I’m sure you all know Christian Wilkins for this legendary split he did after winning the national title in college at Clemson.

Look at the athleticism from the big man, a marvel of the human body!

However, the 4th-year defensive tackle is breaking out for the Miami Dolphins, and becoming one of the best interior linemen in the NFL. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS) Wilkins is third in the NFL in tackles for loss among all defenders, and has an Average Tackle Depth of 1.3 yards, first among all defensive tackles and right below 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw.

Wilkins leads all DTs in Points Saved per run play, and in Miami’s loss to the Chargers, he was the best player on the field for Miami, on either side of the ball. On this tackle for loss against the Chargers, Wilkins (94) is lined up as a 3-technique (over the outside shoulder of the guard) in a five-man front. The Chargers try to run inside zone away from the jet motion of the receiver, and right towards Wilkins.

Wilkins uses his insane first step quickness to rip past RG Zion Johnson, who was probably still in shock that Wilkins slanted into the gap away from where he was.

Unlike a lot of five-man fronts that scheme more on gap control, Miami’s is more old school, using slants by their DL to get penetration instead of holding blockers. Wilkins is one of the best in the NFL at using his quickness and explosion, which stands out because despite being 6’4, he doesn’t have a massive frame. He needs to use his explosion and quickness to knife through gaps, and he’s blossoming into one of the best defenders in the NFL because of it.

On this play, the Chargers are running power, and the RG to Wilkins’ side is pulling. This means that Wilkins is getting a base block coming to him from the center, who’s expecting Wilkins to attack the gap that he’s in.

INCORRECT! Wilkins shoots across the center’s face and darts into the backfield for a TFL. Wilkins was actively changing the gameplan of the Chargers during the game.

Not only was he creating for himself in the run game, Wilkins was creating for others in the run game as well. His ability to just destroy plays with his burst from the interior cause problems for the offensive line, and free up others to make plays. The Chargers are in an offset I formation and run zone to the weakside. Wilkins cuts back across the RG’s face and forces RB Austin Ekeler to change his path, running directly into the teeth of the Dolphins defense. That’s how you create for others.

Wilkins is still improving in the pass rush department, but what stands out the most is the relentlessness. Because Miami blitzes so much (6th in the NFL in blitz rate per Pro Football Reference), Wilkins is often tasked with holding up linemen so his other defenders can get to the QB. However, when the Dolphins don’t blitz, Wilkins rushes the passer with his hair on fire.

His sack in the Chargers game came off of quick game. QB Justin Herbert wanted to throw a snag concept (RB runs a swing, outside receiver runs an inside hook route, or a ‘snag’, and the inside receiver runs a corner). The Dolphins drop from a four-man front to only rushing three. Wilkins jumps to attempt to bat down the quick game pass, then beats the RT to get the sack. His stamina is ENDLESS.

Wilkins is blossoming into an all around DT right before our eyes, and against a Buffalo team on Saturday that has weaknesses on the interior offensive line, Wilkins could have a field day.

Birds of a Feather pass rush together

The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL, by any metric you look at. They’re 4th in defensive EPA/play, 7th in total defensive DVOA and 3rd in yards allowed per game. However, they’re at their best when they can consistently get pressure. According to SIS the Eagles are 15th in pressure rate, but when they do pressure teams they’re first in EPA allowed per pass attempt and have seven interceptions off of pressures.

Against the Giants, that pressure came in full force, sacking QBs Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor seven times in the 48-22 victory. Their pressure is fueled by the edge rushers, who not only get sacks, but open the game up for others as well.

In the latest update of True Sack Rate by Brandon Thorn, the Eagles have two players in the top 15: EDGE’s Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. Reddick is tied for 9th in the NFL in sacks and is 6th in Thorn’s True Sack Rate. Reddick brings speed and great hands in his pass rush, which normally comes out of a five man front (either structurally built that way or a walked up LB). On his first sack against the Giants he gets RT Evan Neal to open his body up to the speed, then darts back inside, leaving Neal spinning like a top.

Notice how the Eagles have built a five man front with Kyzir White (43) walked up over the center. The Giants counter this by motioning a TE in to check release as well as the RB. The two interior linemen double Fletcher Cox because White drops into coverage, leaving Reddick one-on-one.

Someone who’s really come on strong this year is Josh Sweat, on the other side. He’s lower on the True Sack Rate list with eight true sacks, but seven of them are high quality, which Thorn defines as:

“A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.”

Sweat is finally beginning to use the athletic tools that put him among the NFL’s elite at the position (at the 2018 NFL Combine, his 40 yard dash, vertical jump, 20 yard shuttle and broad jump were all in the 80th percentile of all EDGEs drafted ever or higher). On this sack against Giants LT Andrew Thomas (who has been very good this year), Sweat uses a club-rip, but in doing so he reduces his striking area (the part of the chest where Thomas aims), and gets his hips around, in order to finish with the sack even though Thomas has his inside arm until the end. He’s putting it all together folks.

Finally, the Eagles do a great job of marrying their pass rush and their coverage together, to the point where mostly everything is blanketed and before QBs can get to another read, the pass rush is closing in.

This could be considered a coverage sack, but the pass rush closes in and forces Daniel Jones to look away from the passing concept. The Eagles are in Cover 3, but instead of buzzing (safety moves down post snap) the safety down into the middle hook area, he’s already there when the motion comes. The Giants run a switch route to the top of the video that gets the Eagles to distribute the routes poorly, but they close the gap there. By the time Jones looks off, the pass rush is already there and everything else is blanketed.

There are still concerns with the Eagles defense (stopping the run is one of them—24th in defensive DVOA against the run), however if they can continue to get good play out of their pass rush, they’re going to make a serious run at the Super Bowl.

Josh Uche jumpstarts his season

Josh Uche is currently in the middle of a “How it started vs. How it’s going” meme. Allow me to explain.

How it started: Zero sacks through 8 games

How it’s going: TEN SACKS SINCE

According to SIS he has a 22.4% pressure rate, the highest of anyone with over 100 pass rush snaps. The Pats are third in the NFL in pressure rate when rushing four, and Uche’s emergence has been a large reason why the Patriots are that high.

Uche had three sacks in the Patriots win over the Cardinals on Monday night, and did it in a variety of ways. The first sack that stood out in this game was when he used his speed and burst to get back on the inside of Cardinals LT Josh Jones. A lot of players have been doing this hesitation move this season, where they stop and start before the offensive lineman can counter. Uche does it here and gets the sack.

Another one that stood out was how much power Uche packs into his hands, for being a 245 pound edge rusher. This bull rush against RT Kelvin Beachum gets him another sack, and look at the shock from the force he generates, how quickly he’s able to get into the chest of tackles then hit them with power. It’s insane.

This one was a pressure, but I just thought it was sick. If teams want to account for Uche’s speed off the edge, he can just go right through you, like he does here to Josh Jones again. Keep in mind, Uche is 245 and bowling over NFL tackles. Jones tried to run out and catch Uche and ended up on his butt.

The Patriots aren’t dead yet in the AFC Wild Card playoff race, but in order to get there, they’ll need their defense to continue playing extremely well. Uche getting pressure and getting home without blitzing will go a huge way in that department.