Establish The Fun: Josh Allen goes into Leroy Jenkins mode

Plus, James Houston might be the most efficient pass rusher in the league

Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and I will continue to establish that, even through the holidays. We’re headed into Christmas and it’s almost time for a playoff push, but I do want to say thank you again for reading and following. One of my biggest Christmas gifts is being able to write and share things that I find cool in the NFL and that’s really crazy to me. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to establish some fun, and hopefully I’ll keep doing this for a long time.

So let’s get into the fun, starting with Josh Allen going berserk for the Bills.

Josh Allen has his Leroy Jenkins moment

You can tell how important a Bills game is, or how much the Bills need to win a game, by watching Josh Allen. If the Bills need to win, Josh Allen runs. A LOT. It’s his Leroy Jenkins moment, running into harm’s way with every gallop and every 45 yard throw across his body, and sometimes it doesn’t work, but the beauty of Josh Allen is that when it hits (and it’s hitting more often) it makes him into a team-destroying emu with a rocket launcher.

Against Miami last Saturday, Allen was at his best, throwing for 304 yards and four touchdowns in the 32-29 victory. Allen had the fifth-highest total EPA game of his season so far, against a Miami defense that stymied him and the Bills when they played earlier this year. Josh Allen allows you to open up every play in the playbook, and when he’s on he can absolutely dominate.

This is a third and 17, and the Bills are running WR Stefon Diggs on a go route and WR Gabe Davis on a deep curl to the backside. TE Dawson Knox chips the end then releases into the flat, so this really feels like a two man route on third and 17. The Dolphins are playing cover three, but with the alignment of the DBs they were really playing everything at the sticks or deeper. Allen sidesteps pressure, and rips the backside curl route to Davis to pick up 21 yards and a first down. Casual things coming from godzilla with a jetpack.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Bills are the only team in the NFL with an average throw depth of over 15 yards on all third downs over ten yards or more, and their total EPA on those plays is only second to the Kansas City Chiefs. Having Josh Allen allows you to do such things.

What’s been fascinating is how Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is helping both Allen and the Bills offense by mixing in good play designs out of personnel that would be used differently. This season, the Bills are using more 21 personnel (2 backs (normally a FB) and a TE) on passing plays than at any point in the Josh Allen era, and it’s keeping defenses in base personnel to account for the run. This gets the Bills athletes in space against guys that aren’t used to defending out in space.

The Dolphins run cover three, and the Bills are running a concept called Sail. The outside receiver will run a go or some kind of deep route to take away the corner, and the second receiver will run a deep out or corner route, while a third receiver to that side runs a flat route, putting the underneath defender in conflict. What Dorsey does, however, is have FB Reggie Gilliam in the game and have him run the flat. This kept Miami in their base formation, and Knox was wide open.

Watch Josh Allen, though. This play goes for an explosive and not a sack because he rolls out to avoid pressure and casually flicks this ball while on the run. Casual things to do, completely normal.

Josh Allen can also do this, too. These are the type of plays where you can’t do anything but tip your cap, and all the almost INTs and catastrophic plays are worth it for the Bills.

Watch the end zone angle on this play, how close Allen is to the sideline and how small this window is. Very few QBs can do this in the NFL, and when Josh Allen is on, this is just a normal throw he does.

Now, let’s talk about the Josh Allen run game. When Josh Allen scrambles or runs the ball on designed plays, he is one of the most efficient runners in the NFL. Among all players with 20 or more scrambles, he leads the NFL in EPA per rush and first down rate. On 35 designed QB runs, Allen has a higher First Down Rate than Josh Jacobs. When he goes into “Break Stuff” mode, the Bills offense gets even scarier.

The 44 yard run was a nicely executed QB draw, and shows how dangerous Josh Allen can be in the open field. He completely erases the angle of the deep safety and gallops into the red zone. His efficiency and big play ability as a runner is truly a sight to see, and if the Bills are in trouble, they break that glass in an instant.

The Bills aren’t only looking to be playoff contenders—they’re trying to win a Super Bowl. When it’s win or go home time, Buffalo will lean on Josh Allen and his chaos in both the passing game and run game.

Houston, we have a pass rusher

Detroit Lions EDGE James Houston IV might be one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL this year.

No, I’m being dead serious.

Houston has a 16.4 percent pressure rate on 55 pass rush snaps. To put that in context, Micah Parsons has a 17.3 percent pressure rate—on 373 pass rush snaps. Myles Garrett has a 16.8 percent pressure rate on 385 pass rush snaps. Houston’s sack rate is 9.1 percent, which is only below off ball LBs and safeties.

If Houston had the same amount of true pass rush snaps as Parsons, he would have 61 pressures, tying him with Brian Burns for FIFTH in the NFL. Keep in mind, Houston has only played in four games.

Four.

Houston has changed Detroit’s pass rush since he began entering the lineup. Houston normally comes in as a designated pass rusher on third downs, and since he began getting playing time on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s pass rush on third down has been huge. Their pressure rate of 43.9 percent is 15th in the NFL, and a jump from their 37.8 percent pressure rate they posted on third downs from weeks 1-11.

Houston isn’t the biggest player; the Lions list him at 6’1 and 241 pounds. However, Houston is so damn bendy. His burst off the ball combined with his bend causes havoc for pass blockers who just aren’t used to that kind of speed.

Against the Jets, Houston once again had another good game, and his pressure really helped in the Lions win.

Because Houston isn’t the biggest guy, he has to work even harder to make sure opposing linemen don’t get their hands on him. Houston loves the ghost move; a pass rush move where the rusher shows his hands, but then dips under the offensive lineman’s hands as soon as lineman shoots their hands, as if they’re hitting a ghost. Houston can do this so well because of his size, and being smaller than your average pass rusher comes in handy here.

Houston gets pressure that forces an incompletion here, and watch how he reduces his striking area. Offensive linemen are taught to hit the chest—the strike zone. Houston doesn’t allow the lineman to do this by dipping under the lineman’s hand, but also turning his chest away from the lineman, making him swing and miss.

Here, Houston causes a sack by forcing QB Zach Wilson to step up in the pocket, and again watch the speed and the get-off of Houston compared to the other pass rushers. It’s almost as if he’s figure skating instead of playing football.

Of course, there are still ways Houston can improve. Finding different counters to his ghost move is going to be critical, because there were times in the Jets game where he just gets pushed upfield. He’s always going to be at a disadvantage because of his size, but beginning to add more pitches to his repertoire will help him become a better pass rusher. He’s already one of the most efficient.

Go, Go Thibodeaux

The light is starting to come on for Kayvon Thibodeaux.

The first round draft pick for the New York Giants was seen by many as the best edge rusher entering the 2022 NFL Draft, but has battled injuries to start off his first season. Now, it seems like he’s put it together, and the Giants pass rush has been helped greatly due to it.

Since Week 14, Thibodeaux has a 13.3 percent pressure rate and four tackles for loss. He was everywhere in the victory over the Commanders on Sunday night, a welcome sign for Giants fans.

His strip sack was awesome, and he recovered the ball and scored. What makes this so awesome is that you can see the blend of power and speed Thibodeaux has. His initial punch shocks Charles Leno (who has played well for the Commanders), then rips past in a burst to close in on QB Taylor Heinecke. An explosive play from an explosive player. Watch how Leno gets pushed back, it’s freaking awesome.

Thibodeaux was also active in the run game, chasing down plays from the backside or completely obliterating TEs. This TE for Washington had no shot against Thibodeaux, who pushes him back into the ballcarrier then makes the TFL. This is something you would see at the high school level, where there’s a guy who is very clearly much better than everyone else. Not in the NFL. Thibodeaux makes this look easy.

Again, Thibodeaux is not a perfect player. He gives up his chest in pass rush situations and tries to attack the entire OL, instead of attacking half of him. However, New York is currently in the thick of a playoff race, and for their playoff dreams to remain alive, they’ll need the pass rush to come alive. Thibodeaux’s development will be a large part of that. If he continues to play at this level, the sky is the limit.