The Titans QB, Vikings defense, and Broncos hell-raiser Ja’Quan McMillian go under the microscope of Establish the Fun.
It’s Friday.
You know what that means.
Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and I’m establishing that harder than a Tommy Cutlets celebration (those cutlets on Monday Night Football looked pretty darn good, I’m not gonna lie).
The playoffs are just around the corner and while some teams are making final stretches for deep playoff runs, some are hoping to get development and growth out of their young talent, so they know what the priorities are for the upcoming offseason. Since we’re turning the corner into Week 15, we’ll be covering all of those aspects in this week’s three pack of fun, which is exactly why I’m here.
So, let’s dive in, starting with a Titans QB who has ZERO chill — and it might be a good thing.
Will Levis plays DOOM
I’ve always said that NFL QBs play like there’s a song in their head. The San Francisco 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy has the Free Bird guitar solo in his head. The Bills’ Josh Allen? Limp Bizkit’s Break Stuff. Jimmy Garoppolo has to be a gaming fan, because his song is the drowning music from Sonic.
Tennessee Titans’ QB Will Levis has a song in his head too. Only, it goes like this:
The Titans’ signal caller plays a reckless, no, fearless style of football, and sometimes it works. With the amount of arm talent and physical tools he has, he can put any throw anywhere on the field that he chooses. But with this song in his head, he often tends to blow stuff up, both in a good and bad way.
Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Levis has had his share of ups and downs. He’s third in the NFL in explosive passes completed (passes of over 20 air yards), but among all QBs with at least 30 passes attempted over that span, he’s 31st out of 45 QBs in On-Target Rate, per Sports Info Solutions. He’s still finding out his answers against pressure, and the shortcomings of his footwork/mechanics in the short area passing game are reflected in the tape and stats; his On-Target Rate on all passes of 10 air yards are lower is in the same range as Tommy Devito.
However, when everything is clicking, he can put together insane moments, like he did on Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. In the Titans’ comeback win, Levis threw for 327 yards and had a 58 percent Success Rate against a Miami defense that was rounding into form under Vic Fangio. He did this through plays of both reckless abandon and aggressive downfield passes, flashing the arm talent that enticed scouts.
One of the first plays I think about from this game for Levis is one that got a first down via penalty, but embodies both the Will Levis experience and his growth over a short period of time. Through Week 8-11, Levis had a 8.6 percent sack rate; among QBs that threw the ball at least 25 times that was seventh in the NFL. On all plays where he was pressured, however, that number jumped to 21.1 percent. This matters because one of the most important qualities for a QB in the modern NFL is the ability to mitigate pressure either with your mind, arm, or legs. Levis struggled with that at Kentucky, and early in his NFL career he struggled with it. Since Week 12, however, that sack rate when pressured has dropped to 16.7 percent, a promising sign. Levis is figuring out his answers, and one of those answers might just be going kaboom.
It’s 3rd and 10, the Titans are up against the play clock. They run a Wheelie Switch concept to the top of the screen (inside receiver runs a wheel, crossing with the outside receiver, who runs a deep post). WR DeAndre Hopkins is running a deep over, trying to use the attention from the concept at the top to get open. Before Levis can get to the top of his drop, Bradley Chubb is on him. Now it’s time to go into DOOM mode. Levis shakes off the edge rusher and takes off, and instead of going around a very physical and great tackler in Jalen Ramsey, he simply tries to RUN HIM OVER. Levis is a tough kid, and whether you wanna call it fearless or call it stupid, it will be fun.
He also beat the pressure with his athleticism, knowing now that he can’t take a sack in this case. This might not be the sexiest throw, but it shows some growth by Levis, getting out of this pressure and checking it down for a first down.
In the passing game, that aggression is harnessed by the Titans’ switch to a more downfield, attacking offense. Levis’ Average Depth of Target is a whopping ten yards, highest in the NFL among passers with 200 attempts. He is going to take the most difficult downfield throw possible, and sometimes it works out! He’s got kind of a Jay Cutler style of recklessness to him, which makes him fun to watch!
This hole shot into Miami’s Cover 2 is a perfect example of Levis’ aggression and arm talent matching together. Tennessee is running a mirrored Ohio concept, with the slot receiver running an out, and the outside receiver running any kind of vertical route. The easy throw to take is the out route at the top of the screen. The cloud corner is sinking with Hopkins and the flat is vacated. Levis turns that down and instead rips a missile into the gap, for a big chunk play to move the chains. Mind you, he’s also getting clobbered while he throws this pass. Kid’s tougher than a $2 steak, word to Jim Ross.
Tight window throws like that one are littered all over the tape from Monday night, which make you want to buy in despite some of the shortcomings in the short area. Miami is running 3 Weak, meaning the backside safety is buzzing down to rob any in-breaker to the backside. This throw is not open. This throw should not be made.
Levis does it anyway, and puts it only in a place where Hopkins can make the catch (if you wanna call it OPI, be my guest. Doesn’t take away from some great ball placement). The recklessness will get him into trouble a lot, but if you can iron that out while keeping this up, you might have something.
Overall, I think the Titans and Levis are in a good spot. They have seen enough tools and traits to warrant him being the starter going forward, and can continue to develop him as time goes along.
Make no mistake about it though, Levis is going to play DOOM. And sometimes, it rocks.
The Minnesota Vikings’ defense is emotionally Dale Gribble
Recently, I started watching King of the Hill. Phenomenal show, by the way. Incredible television that has some pretty nice moments in between general shithousery with Hank Hill and Boomhauer (my favorite character on the show).
One of my favorite moments from the show is an iconic line, one that everyone probably knows by now. Dale Gribble is showing us how to defend ourselves, and uses a rather unique method:
Pocket sand is a disorienting agent. It forces you to see things that aren’t there, and clouds your vision for a temporary moment.
All that to say: the Minnesota Vikings’ defense, called by coordinator Brian Flores, are emotionally Dale Gribble with the pocket sand.
After being thought of as a noticeable weakness going into the season, the Vikings’ defense is FOURTH(!) in EPA/play on defense, SEVENTH(!!) in success rate allowed and are coming off a shutout in the Vikings’ 3-0(!!!) win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Perhaps the most telling stat about the Vikings’ defense this year: they lead the NFL in passing attempts defended with only 3 pass rushers with 113. Nobody else has over 60.
They also lead the NFL in passing attempts defended with 6 or more pass rushers with 144. Nobody else has more than 45.
They throw pocket sand at opposing QBs with any defender being liable to drop or blitz from anywhere, and force the issue on defense. They gave rookie QB Aidan O’Connell PROBLEMS on Sunday, to the tune of this passing chart:
My word. Brian Flores is a madman, let’s see how they flummoxed the young QB.
On early downs, the Vikings love to send pressure. Of those 144 passing snaps with six or more pass rushers, 106 of them come on early downs. Flores and the Vikings’ defense wants you to speed up your process on early downs, get you out of your comfort zone early and force quick throws that they can rally to.
Take this incompletion to Davante Adams for example. The Vikings are in a five man front with technically 3 safeties on the field: Josh Metellus (44, next to MIKE LB Ivan Pace Jr), Cam Bynum (24, playing deep) and Harrison Smith (22). Smith is key to this play. As WR Jakobi Meyers motions across the formation, Smith comes flying down as a late addition to the blitz. This causes O’Connell to speed his process up, and he straight up misses on a slant to Adams.
If offenses want to run play action and take shots against these blitzes, Flores has the back end playing really well. First of all, on this passing play, look at how many people can be identified as potential blitzers. Potentially eight guys can come or go, from any which direction. This ends up being a two man shot play, but with Adams doubled and the pressure coming in, O’Connell has no choice but to throw this away.
Where Flores and the defense really gets to cooking is on third down. The Vikings use that pressure they send early to play games with the offense, forcing them into thinking pressure is coming, but then bailing at the last moment and forcing a quick throw. All the Raiders could muster on late down passes were screens, because O’Connell routinely got game’d by the Vikings defense. Before Meyers went into motion on this third down, this is what O’Connell saw at the line of scrimmage:
Good luck, young padawan. This looks like the Vikings are bringing everyone and the kitchen sink, so the Raiders have a screen pass called. With the Vikings DBs playing “birds on a fence” coverage (every DB is at the same alignment off the LOS), it seems like the heady play.
The Vikings end up dropping out of that pressure look and get four defenders over four people on the screen, and get a third down stop. They played the game, and beat the Raiders when they thought they had the answers.
This is another great look at a third down call where the Vikings changed the questions as soon as Vegas found the answers. The Vikings love mugged fronts, and can interchange their personnel there as well, but on this play both Pace and LB Troy Dye are mugged over the center. Before the snap, this is what the defense looks like:
This looks like a blitz, with the safety playing off coverage to prevent being beat deep. Because the Raiders are in empty, they run WR Hunter Renfrow on a quick out to try and beat the blitz, and make plays after the catch.
The Vikings end up playing cloud coverage to Renfrow, meaning the corner has everything to the flat. Because he knows this ball is coming out hot, he can trigger hard on the Renfrow route and forces an incompletion. You never have the right answers if you don’t know what the questions are.
Perhaps the finest moment of this came in the fourth quarter, Minnesota hanging on to that 3-0 lead. Before the snap, this is what Minnesota’s defense looks like:
O’Connell and the Raiders think this is man coverage with six guys at the LOS. Metellus will have the back, meaning Adams can win 1v1 on a slant and do some damage.
However, for the last time,
LB Ivan Pace doesn’t blitz, but drops right to where the Adams slant is breaking. The Vikings drop into Cover 2 with Metellus running the pipe, and O’Connell doesn’t see it. Interception, and the icing on the cake of a defensive masterclass by Flores and the Minnesota defense.
Flores and the Vikings defense take on Jake Browning and the Bengals on Saturday, a game that now has a lot of intrigue behind it. Can Browning and the Bengals stay ahead of the mind games, or will pocket sand reign supreme?
Jaquan McMillan and the Broncos defensive revolution
Hey, so remember this?
The Denver Broncos got 70-balled in a real life NFL game, and from that point on it was deemed that this defense was done for good. In a way, it was. You can’t just let a team score 70 points on you and remain the same.
The Broncos’ defense has changed, yes. But this time it’s for the better, and one name is spearheading the way. Since that Week 3 debacle, the Broncos not only have been better, but one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. Since Week four they’re fourth in EPA/play, sixth in EPA/dropback, and have somehow clawed their way back into the AFC playoff picture.
Now, I bet you’re wondering, “JP, how can horses claw if they don’t have claws?” To that, I say, you’re right, so let’s try that over:
The Denver Broncos have hoofed their way back into the AFC playoff picture, while getting some great play across the board, especially from nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillian. McMillian has been one of the NFL’s best havoc-raisers in 2023, with two interceptions, two forced fumbles and two sacks this year. McMillian is ninth among all cornerbacks in pressures this year, sixth in pressure rate and is first in the NFL in EPA/target allowed when lined up as a slot defender (min. 20 targets).
The dude has been BALLIN, and has helped turn around that Broncos defense. Against the Chargers, he was everywhere, causing chaos left and right.
As a blitzer, McMillian shows great timing, rarely ever being blocked on blitzes. On this rep, the Chargers are running play action away from McMillian’s side, meaning he could get a free run at the QB if he times this up correctly. McMillian doesn’t show the blitz until the last second, but QB Justin Herbert points him out (of course he does). So, McMillian dips around LT Rashawn Slater to get the sack anyway, pretty smooth rep as a pass rusher by a DB!
This blitz came later in the game, after Herbert went down with an injury. QB Easton Stick might be something, but he’s not Herbert. This is a really well designed blitz by Denver, who effectively wastes a lot of blockers by showing pressure to the left side of the QB, but dropping the DT and bringing the MIKE LB and McMillian. Those two forced fumbles aren’t a fluke either, McMillian sees the ball and can make plays on impact. He gets a free run and almost causes another turnover.
He’s an extremely effective blitzer, but also can win as an underneath to intermediate area defender. He’s got a quick trigger on the ball and is able to sort out coverages really well. McMillian travels across with the motion, showing LA that this could be man coverage. However, they drop into QQH on the snap, and McMillian has eyes on the number two receiver as the slot corner. If you pause the video when the QB decides to throw this ball, look at McMillian in his break. It’s a great play, by a guy who has become an impact player for the Broncos defense.
The Denver defensive turnaround will be put to the test on Saturday, as they take on the Detroit Lions in the nightcap. Just know, if anyone from the Broncos is around the ball making plays, it’s McMillian.
