Let’s rank every team in the College Football Playoff by their chances of winning the national championship.
The University of Notre Dame is often associated with ushering in a new era of football, when legendary head coach Knute Rockne leaned into the forward pass, establishing the Fighting Irish as one of the preeminent college football programs.
Friday night on those historic grounds, Notre Dame will help usher in another new era, hosting the very first College Football Playoff game in the 12-team generation.
Gone are the days voters determining a National Champion, as well as the recent four-team playoff system. This year college football installed the first 12-team playoff, and now eight of those teams will be in action this weekend, with four awaiting the winners, as the inauguarl 12-team playoff gets underway.
That makes right now a perfect time to ask: Who has the best chance of taking home the title?
Staff members here at SB Nation submitted their 12-team rankings, those were averaged, and here you have the results. Who has the best chance to hold the National Championship Trophy aloft in Atlanta next month?
Read on to find out.
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12. SMU
It’s been a Cinderella season for the Mustangs in the third year of Rhett Lashlee’s tenure as they cruised to a 11-2 record and made it as high as No. 8 in the rankings this year.
“Explosive” is the word that comes to mind with the SMU offense, with players up and down the roster who are capable of making home run plays. Lightning quick all-purpose running back Brashard Smith is a player to watch after scoring 18 touchdowns from scrimmage this season, where he led the Mustangs in rushing yards.
If they want any hopes of upsetting Penn State in the CFB Playoff they’ll need their offensive line to show up against a much bigger, and stronger unit. Everything this team likes to do on offense is predicated by protection, and in their losses to BYU and Clemson this broke down. Defensively this team is solid, but a lot is going to need to go their way to keep progressing in the playoff.
11. Clemson
A disappointing three-loss regular season for Dabo Swinney and Co. gave way to a dramatic comeback in the ACC Championship Game by beating an SMU team that made major waves in their inaugural season in the ACC.
On paper there isn’t a lot wrong with this Clemson team, but they decidedly lack an “it factor” that Swinney teams have had in the past. QB Cade Klubnik is solid, their receiving group is deep (albeit lacking star power), and running back Phil Mafah finished his 2024 campaign with over 1,000 rushing yards and 8 TDs.
Despite their positive attributes, Texas is a ludicrous test for the Tigers. It could very well come to Clemson’s No. 32 ranked pass rush to try and make Quinn Ewers uncomfortable in the pocket, but still — that feels like an iffy prospect.
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10. Indiana
Indiana isn’t just a feel good story, this team is really damn good.
They play an incredibly versatile style of offense, averaging 6.75 yards per play which is 18th in the entire nation, second in yards per dropback and sixth in EPA per play. If QB Kurtis Rourke is healthy (which is a big if) the Hoosier offense is both explosive and brutally efficient through the air.
I’ve been very impressed with their defense as well, finishing the regular season fifth in defensive EPA per play. They don’t allow many explosives, but in their biggest game of the season Ohio State kind of ran them over. From the offensive perspective, as good as IU’s passing game is, against the blitz is where they struggle the most. Notre Dame is going to test their offensive line a lot, and it’ll be a good data point to use in where Indiana is and where they’re going.
9. Arizona State
What a ride it’s been for Arizona State, who finished the season strong by rattling off six straight wins, three over ranked opponents. What stands out about this team is how explosive they can be on the ground. They’re 15th in EPA per carry and 14th in Rushing Success Rate. Obviously they’re led by superstar RB Cam Skattebo who has broken quite literally every tackle he’s ever seen, but QB Sam Leavitt also can create on the ground.
Where this team is going to run into trouble is through the air. Star wideout Jordyn Tyson is out for the playoff run and also missed the Big 12 title game, and he gave them some juice on the outside. While the other receiving targets played well against Iowa State, this playoff run is going to test them in much larger ways. If the ground game isn’t working, I’m not sure how far they can go.
I also said that in the Big 12 title game and they dropped 40 points, so if anything, I’ve learned not to doubt these Sun Devils.
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
8. Penn State
Penn State is a very good football team, evidenced by their 11-2 record, their appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game, and a first-round home game in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
But there is a difference between a good football team and a team that looks primed to win a National Championship.
Those two losses highlight that difference. At the start of November the then-ranked No. 3 Nittany Lions hosted then-ranked No. 4 Ohio State with a chance to cement themselves as one of the top teams in the nation. But after getting out to an early 10-0 lead, Penn State was outscored 20-3 over the final 47 minutes en route to a 20-13 loss.
While the Nittany Lions fought back in the Big Ten Championship Game after falling down 28-10, they still lost to Oregon by a final score of 45-37.
Now, they have a very favorable path, drawing SMU in the first round and then Boise State with a trip to the semifinals on the line, and with the talent they have on both sides of the football — pay particular attention to tight end Tyler Warren and pass rusher Abdul Carter — the questions truly arise should they make it to the final four.
7. Boise State
Now we have the aforementioned Boise State Broncos.
There is no question Boise State boasts one of the best players in all of college football, running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty ran all over defenses this year to the tune of 2,497 yards and 29 rushing touchdowns, a resume that saw him in New York City for the 2024 Heisman Trophy presentation. Whether the Broncos take on SMU or Penn State in the quarterfinals, Jeanty is going to pose a problem.
But a problem for the Broncos? The path they face to Atlanta. Even with the first-round bye, they are going to face a team with a stout rushing defense in their first playoff game. Penn State has the ninth-ranked run defense in the nation, while SMU checks in with the fourth-best run defense.
Should the Broncos survive that first test, they’ll see either Georgia, Notre Dame, or Indiana in the semifinals.
That is a tough path just to get to Atlanta.
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6. Tennessee
This iteration of the Volunteers is pure smash mouth, old-school football — led by defensive brilliance. The Tennessee defensive line is one of the most fearsome in the nation, with EDGE James Pearce Jr. destined to be a Top 15 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Offensively their game comes down to running back Dylan Sampson, who exploded in 2024 by rushing for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns. When Sampson is paired with quarterback Nico Iamaleava it makes for a varied offense that can be difficult to pin down, which almost becomes soul crushing after dealing with the Volunteers prolific defensive ability.
Ohio State is a fairly good draw for the Vols, and while Tennessee is the underdog, they have a serious shot at the upset here.
5. Ohio State
Despite the loss in the season finale that bounced Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship Game, there are still reasons to believe in the Buckeyes.
They have the top-ranked defense in the nation, both in total yards allowed as well as scoring. They have tremendous talent at the skill positions, particularly on offense, and they get to start their playoff run at home. While Tennessee could provide a difficult test, assuming Ohio State advances they’ll get a rematch against Oregon at the Rose Bowl — which would be quite the throwback — a team they lost to by just one point back in October.
Yes, Ryan Day is under an enormous amount of pressure. Anything short of a trip to Atlanta could prove costly for his tenure in Columbus. But there is one more thing Day and the Buckeyes have going for them as the playoff begins.
Michigan is not on the schedule.
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4. Georgia
So, initially I had the Bulldogs making the national title game but now I’m not so sure. With QB Carson Beck out for the foreseeable future with a UCL injury, it’s up to Gunner Stockton to man the helm for the Bulldogs. While he’s not as polished as a passer, he can change the game with his legs, and Georgia will have more time to prepare a gameplan for him to succeed.
I don’t trust the Georgia receiving core very much, but I do trust the fact that Georgia is incredibly well-coached and can outscheme anyone on the defensive side of the ball. With more time to rest for standout defenders Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks, the Bulldogs can turn every game into a rock fight if they wanted to. How far they’ll go in the playoff will be determined by the strength of their offensive line and RBs Trevor Etienne, Nate Frazier and Cash Jones.
3. Notre Dame
It’s not often a Notre Dame team enters a season being underrated, but that’s exactly what happened to Marcus Freeman’s team in 2024. Opening with a preseason rank of No. 7, the Irish went 11-1 this season on the back of QB Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability, paired with one of the best rushing attacks in the nation.
The two-headed monster of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price define the offense, with both backs rushing for over 7.0 yards-per-carry in 2024, combining for 24 touchdowns. What really makes this team tick though is just how balanced they are on offense and defense, finishing 3rd in the nation in both points scored and points allowed in 2024.
The big question surrounding Indiana is whether the relatively-untested Hoosiers are as good as their ludicrous stats show. If that ends up being fool’s gold then the Irish should cruise to a fairly easy win in this one.
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2. Texas
“Texas is FINE,” they say as thousands of fans in burnt orange hyperventilate into their paper bags. This Texas season has been … really weird. The offense has largely been up and down, but the defense has been incredible this season. The speed and physicality they play with up front is amazing to watch, and CB Jahdae Barron is playing himself into the first round of the NFL Draft. The problem is, the offense is prone to either looking like The Greatest Show on Turf one week, then the worst football team in America the next. The run game has had their highs and lows, but the passing game has been very inconsistent. QB Quinn Ewers may be nursing an ankle injury, and that limits his already poor downfield accuracy and pocket movement. Getting All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks back is a huge plus, but can Texas find enough from their QB (or QBs) to win the whole thing?
1. Oregon
The Oregon Ducks are undefeated, and the top-ranked team entering the tournament for a reason. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. Dillion Gabriel was a Heisman Finalist for a reason, and runs an offense that stresses defenses all over the field.
The Ducks averaged 35.9 points per game while running through their Big Ten slate. They sport one of the nation’s best scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 points per game. They are also tested in tight games against stiff competition, winning one-score contests against both Ohio State and Penn State.
What might prove a true x-factor? Gabriel’s experience. Oregon’s next game will be Gabriel’s 63rd college football game, dating back to his first year at UCF in 2019. There is nothing Gabriel has not seen on a college field, and that experience could prove decisive over the next month.
