F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2025: Storylines as the grid heads to Suzuka

Yuki Tsunoda making his Red Bull debut is one of the major storylines heading into the F1 Japanese Grand Prix

For years Yuki Tsunoda dreamed of a seat at Red Bull.

This week the driver gets his chance, and the timing could not be better. As the grid heads to Suzuka for the Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix, Tsunoda is set to make his Red Bull debut at his home race.

The timing of the move, however, raises new questions about how Red Bull handles the seat next to four-time Drivers’ Champion Max Verstappen. Tsunoda will be Verstappen’s sixth teammate at Red Bull, as the team decided to demote Liam Lawson to Visa Cash App Racing Bulls after just two race weekends, sliding Tsunoda into his spot.

This after passing Tsunoda over for the seat initially, when the team parted ways with Sergio Pérez and tapped Lawson for the promotion.

How Tsunoda handles the move — at his home race — will be one of the major storylines this weekend. Will he succeed where other drivers have failed? Will he be able to handle the tricky RB21, that has given even Verstappen some issues over the start of the season? Or will Tsunoda become the latest driver to suffer at the hands of the “second seat curse” at Red Bull?

Those questions form one storyline of many this week at the grid heads to Suzuka.

How will Liam Lawson bounce back?

Photo by Sam Bloxham/LAT Images

For the second race in a row, a young VCARB driver is facing questions over how they will respond in their return to the track.

At the Chinese Grand Prix, rookie Isack Hadjar was tasked with bouncing back after a spin on the formation lap in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, knocking him out of his first F1 race before the lights even went out.

To his credit, Hadjar reached Q3 for the first time in his career, out-qualifying Tsunoda to start in P7. While race strategy ultimately cost Hadjar a shot at his first points in F1, it was a strong response from the rookie.

Now his new teammate faces something similar.

With Lawson’s demotion to VCARB, how will he respond in Japan?

The driver switch may be the best thing for the young driver, as the VCARB02 has been a more consistent car through two race weekends. While Helmut Marko himself noted that the race pace is still better with the RB21, Lawson has a chance to put together some consistent performances, particularly in qualifying, in a more stable car with a bigger operating window.

How he responds this week, and over the rest of the season, will tell us a ton about Liam Lawson.

How will Ferrari bounce back?

Lawson is not the only F1 figure needing a bounce-back performance in Japan.

The entire team from Maranello could be put in that category.

The Chinese Grand Prix got off to a strong start for Ferrari, as Lewis Hamilton captured his first trophy in red with a win in the F1 Sprint race. But things unraveled from there. Despite thoughts that Hamilton and Charles Leclerc could challenge for pole position, particularly with Hamilton’s pole position lap in F1 Sprint qualifying setting a new track record, the Ferrari duo locked out the third row instead.

They locked out the third row at the checkered flag as well, with Leclerc finishing fifth and Hamilton sixth. But the two drivers were disqualified for different reasons: Leclerc for coming in underweight, and Hamilton for the strike plate on his SF-25 having too much wear.

As a result, both drivers came away empty-handed on Sunday, and Ferrari find themselves sitting fifth in the standings, level with Williams on points but behind them due to tiebreaker rules.

This is not where they expected to be after two races, but again, it is just two races. There is a long way to go before champions are crowned.

But you know they would love to put in a good performance this weekend.

Keep an eye on Aston Martin this weekend

The race at the sharp end of the grid draws the most attention (more on that in a second) but a fascinating fight is taking shape in the midfield.

Here are the F1 Constructors’ Championship standings as the grid heads to Suzuka:

Certainly, there is excitement in Grove, as Williams sits fourth in the standings. They are level on points with Ferrari but hold the current tiebreaker advantage thanks to Alex Albon’s P5 at the Australian Grand Prix. While we expect Ferrari to rise in the standings, Williams currently holds the midfield edge. But Haas is just three points behind after a strong showing in Shanghai, Aston Martin is lurking, and teams like Sauber, VCARB, and Alpine have shown potential throughout this season.

Will one of these teams take a step forward at the Japanese Grand Prix? A team to watch this weekend might be Aston Martin. Lance Stroll was rewarded for his long stint on the hard compound in Shanghai — a stint that convinced the bulk of the field that a one-stopper was possible — and was promoted into the points after the post-race disqualifications at the Chinese Grand Prix. As for his teammate, Fernando Alonso finished sixth at the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix, calling it one of the best weekends of his career.

The beauty of the Japanese Grand Prix

Photo by YUICHI YAMAZAKI/AFP via Getty Images

This week the grid heads to Suzuka, a stop on the schedule that is loved by the drivers themselves.

Last year I spoke with Jenson Button ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix, and the 2009 Drivers’ Champion did not hold back when it came to praising this race, offering an insight into why the drivers love heading to Japan.

“It’s the fastest-flowing, best circuit in the world. For me.”

He elaborated on what makes Suzuka so special.

“There’s no room for error. It’s a narrow track, most corners have grass and then gravel. There’s none of this tarmac runoff area, which I like. I’ve raced in Suzuka in F1 for many years. I raced in Super GT in Suzuka. It doesn’t matter what you drive around there.”

Of course, roaring an F1 around Suzuka is in a class of its own.

“It’s a great track but a Formula One car is at its best from Turn Two, all the way through the ‘Esses,’ up through Dunlop, It’s just a phenomenal section.

“And if you are at the track, that’s the section you have to watch at. Really. You do.”

Button then spoke about something else that makes the Japanese Grand Prix one of the best motorsport events in the world.

The fans themselves.

“You know something about the Japanese fans, some of the best in the world. They watch the Grand Prix and then three hours later they stay at the track to watch the replay on the big screen and, and I just love that. You know, they really, they celebrate with you.”

This is the prefect time to share one of my favorite F1 clips from recent memory:

Those fans, and this circuit, are a big part of the story this weekend.

Who will put the pressure on McLaren?

After just two races in the F1 season, a clear favorite for the Constructors’ Championship has emerged. With wins in the first two races of the season, their car looks like the premium package on the grid, and the rest of the season looks like it will be a long coronation rather than a title fight.

That was Red Bull after two races last season.

The point? There is a long way to go before we can crown McLaren champions once again. While the MCL39 has been the dominant package on the grid so far this season — with Lando Norris winning in Australia and Oscar Piastri taking the win in Shanghai — the rest of the grid will have something to say about a McLaren coronation.

For example, Mercedes seems to have something with the W16, as George Russell finished on the podium in both the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix and rookie Kimi Antonelli has points in each race this season. Hamilton’s win in the F1 Sprint race in Shanghai is a sign that Ferrari has some pace this year, and Hamilton himself is not to be ignored.

And of course, while Red Bull is off to a slow start they still have Verstappen. Last year he won his fourth Drivers’ title despite not having the best car on the grid, and if anyone can pull the RB21 — and Red Bull — to a title this season it is him.

What may work in McLaren’s favor, however, is the big picture. At some point teams will face a choice: Can we win a title in 2025, or should we pivot our development to next season, when the new regulations arrive? When I put this question to Guenther Steiner ahead of this season, he predicted that teams would start to shift focus in May.

“I actually spoke with some people which are doing this in F1, in the moment which are faced with this, because I think everybody will shift to the ‘26 car in May because that is the future,” said Steiner to SB Nation in February. “If you develop until May the ‘25 car, you still bring parts until the middle of the year, because until you develop and then you have to make the parts, obviously that takes time.

“So I do not think that there will be a lot of development going into a ‘25 car after May, beginning of June. Except somebody may be fighting for the world championship, you know, if the battle is close, then obviously you decide, ‘[h]ey, we need to go a little bit longer [with developing the 2025 car] we win this championship.’

“But I think everybody making their plan in the moment, I would say in June we are on 95% or 97% [the] ‘26 car.”

This week the grid heads to Japan, and the calendar flips to April.

Will a team, or teams, put the pressure on McLaren and stay within striking distance, giving themselves a reason to stay focused on their 2025 challengers?

Or will the 2025 F1 season give way to the 2026 campaign before we know it?