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Which would be a better landing spot for Belichick?
The Bill Belichick era in New England will officially end at noon on Thursday, but Belichick’s time in the NFL isn’t close to being done. There’s no shortage of needy teams this coaching cycle, and in the wake of the news that the Patriots are moving on there are two teams poised to heavily pursue Belichick: The Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders.
It’s unclear whether Belichick wants to continue coaching at 71 years old, but he needs just 15 wins to pass Don Shula as the winningest coach in NFL history. Personal glory has never been a big deal to Bill, but it would be the feather in his cap that would solidify him as the greatest coach in football history, without any room for argument.
Still, both the Falcons and Commanders represent different challenges for anyone coming in — especially with the pressure to win right now. If a decision comes down to these two teams, who would most entice Belichick and who could benefit the most from it?
The Falcons: A team that needs a steady hand and reliability
One of the things that’s marred the Falcons for the last two decades has been a lack of experience at the head coach position. From Jim Mora Jr, to Bobby Petrino, then Mike Smith, Dan Quinn and finally Arthur Smith — this team routinely tried to find success with first-time head coaches.
This got them four NFC South division championships, but little playoff success outside of their Super Bowl berth in 2016 — where they collapsed against … Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
Atlanta’s roster is far from perfect, but there are pieces here that coaches would covet. Bijan Robinson naturally makes the offense easier to construct with a running back of his caliber, and there are two really good weapons in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Defensively there are some bright spots too, most notably Jessie Bates III and David Onyemata.
There are two things this team needs to compete: A new quarterback and better pass rushing. That’s easier said than done, but for someone like Belichick it’s not as if he’d be entering this team with a bare cupboard.
What remains to be seen is how this team would operate structurally. Current Falcons’ GM Terry Fontenot was curiously omitted from the press conference Monday where the team announced they had fired Smith, which lends credence to the idea that the team might be open to having a new general manager as well.
This is a bit of an iffy prospect. We know Belichick the coach is amazing, but Belichick the GM? Not so much — especially in recent history. Still, it’s not like this would require a complete rebuild. Essentially Belichick would inherit an underperforming team, and simply be asked to get them over the hump. This is something he’s absolutely capable of.
The Commanders: A team to be built in his image
On the other end of the spectrum we have the Washington Commanders, which is a very different challenge. This is a team currently looking for a coach and a GM — which could allow Belichick to fill both roles, or collaborate with another to construct the roster.
The Commanders are facing a mammoth rebuild. There’s very little on this roster worth keeping at this point outside of Terry McLaurin, Sam Cosmi and Kendall Fuller. That’s not a huge problem though, especially when you’re holding the No. 2 pick in the NFL and a whooping $63M in effective cap space for 2024.
This is a blank slate. A blank slate with fairly low pressure. There’s not much of a bar to clear here for success, and that has to be extremely appealing. You have to go back to Joe Gibbs to find a coach who left the Commanders with a winning tenure, and he left in 1992. Essentially all Belichick would need to do is create a situation where this team competes, makes incremental improvements — and as long as they go 9-8 fans will be overjoyed they’re actually getting to see this team play quality football.
It’s a big task though. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done, but if the Commanders can find the right quarterback then it’s entirely possible this team could have a Texans-like resurgence. The idea that it takes 3-4 years to build a franchise is over, largely because of how polished college players are upon entering the NFL, particularly at the quarterback position. If you can develop a system to let players succeed you can succeed quickly, and arguably nobody is better at getting players to out-perform their potential than Bill Belichick.
So, of these two teams who should hire Bill Belichick?
The Washington Commanders. It makes the most sense for both parties here. While Atlanta’s almost-ready roster is enticing, they are built for a brand of football that isn’t really Belichick’s. The Falcons would be better off getting a young, offensive mind who can look at the pieces on their roster and execute a plan built around them.
When it comes to the draft there’s no doubt Belichick has lost a step, but he’s still a master at constructing a team. If there’s a collaborative effort that takes draft pressure off Belichick and gives him someone he trusts in a co-GM position there could be something special to build on. Turning the Commanders into a competitive team would be an incredible feather in the cap of an already legendary coach, and depending on how long Belichick wants to continue coaching it might only take 3-4 years to make them a perennial factor in the NFC East (with some luck).
Whatever happens next is a momentous shift in the NFL, and it’s going to be fascinating to watch.
