What can we expect from the rookie QBs for the rest of the season?
I was excited to write my mid-season fantasy breakdown and rest-of-season (ROS) rankings column on the rookie quarterbacks, but then they put up a collective stinker on Sunday. Check that—Bo Nix was OK (16.1 fantasy points), but Drake Maye (12.8), Jayden Daniels (8.6), and Caleb Williams (6.3) didn’t do much to help fantasy managers win this week, not to mention that Maye was the only one whose team won (playing the Bears, so it was going to be hard for all four to lose). Oh well, I’m writing the column anyway. You can’t stop me.
Last week, I wrote a similar column covering the rookie wide receivers. These are follow-ups to my preseason columns exploring the fantasy prospects of the rookie quarterbacks and receivers.
A record six QBs were taken in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL draft. Three of the six (#1 Williams, #2 Daniels, and #12 Nix) were opening-day starters. Maye (#3) started the season as the Patriots’ backup but took over as the starter in Week 6. J.J. McCarthy (#10) suffered a season-ending injury in July and Michael Penix, Jr. (#8) has thrown just one pass this season, as he’s stuck behind Kirk Cousins. Spencer Rattler, a fifth round pick and the next QB taken after Nix, got a chance to start when Derek Carr missed time, and it wasn’t pretty. We’ve got four QBs to discuss.
We’ll learn a lot more about this class in the coming years and it’s too early to evaluate it now. One thing is abundantly clear though. For the second straight year, the #2 pick is playing worlds better than the #1 pick. More on them in a minute.
2024 marked the fourth time in six years that at least five QBs went in Round 1. Let’s do a quick recap. The 2018 class (Round 1: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson) started slowly but has turned out to be outstanding. The 2020 class (Round 1: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love; Round 2: Jalen Hurts) is also excellent, and all five QBs are starting for the team that drafted them after getting bank-breaking second contracts. The odds of hitting that five-leg parlay are staggering, as we’re about to see.
Fun fantasy fact: Five of the top six scoring QBs on the season are from one of these two classes. The 2021 class is another story though, and a sobering reminder that a decent portion of highly-touted college QBs end up being busts. Five QBs were taken in the first 15 picks of that draft, and three seasons later, only one (Trevor Lawrence) started on opening day, and he’s also the only one who’s still with the team that drafted him. And let’s be honest—he hasn’t exactly been the prince that was promised.
We don’t know what the 2024 class will amount to down the road, but we know what it is after 10 weeks and as we head towards the fantasy playoffs. It’s a mixed bag, as you’d expect. But despite what we saw from the group this week, there’s plenty of upside that fantasy managers need to consider.
Let’s get to it. I’ll list the rookie QBs in the order that I’d want to roster them for ROS, and at the end I’ll take an educated guess at where they’ll be drafted next season.
All rankings and fantasy point totals referenced are through Week 10 unless indicated.
Group 1: Set it and forget it
1. Jayden Daniels (current overall rank: QB7, 19.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG))
Those numbers include a game where Daniels left early with bruised ribs. Take that game out and he’s the QB5, at 21.1 FPPG. It’s been a long time since a rookie QB lit it up like this and Daniels sits alone in this tier. Can I take a victory lap? I was extremely high on him in the preseason and told anyone who would listen that he was a true dual-threat and was the rookie QB you wanted. He’s been all that and then some, and through 10 weeks he’s the runaway favorite for offensive rookie of the year. The Commanders are a major surprise at 7-3 and he’s a huge part of their resurgence under new Head Coach Dan Quinn.
Here’s what I wrote in my summer column: “I have Daniels ranked as QB11 and I’m starting to think even that’s a little too low. I love the solid floor and high ceiling you’re getting at his 8th or 9th round draft price.” The rushing has cemented his floor, while the passing prowess has been a nice surprise. Some of his and the Commanders’ efficiency metrics early in the season were mind-boggling. He’s cooled off, which was to be expected, but his passing numbers are still excellent and especially for a rookie.
One note of caution: His schedule, which has been favorable, gets harder down the stretch (it’s the ninth hardest based on fantasy points allowed). He struggled in Week 10 against a tough Steelers’ defense, and he gets the Eagles and their surging defense this Thursday on a short week. Still, I think he’s entered must-start territory and as of now I wouldn’t shy away from him in any of his remaining matchups.
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images
Group 2: Mix and Match
2. Bo Nix (current overall rank: QB12, 17.2 FPPG)
This was a close call between Nix and Maye, but I’m going with the player in the better overall situation, plus Nix has the edge in game experience and remaining schedule. Nix was the last and least heralded of the six QBs taken in the first round, has been a very pleasant surprise so far. He’s proved the critics wrong so far, as he’s been more than just competent—he’s been good, both in reality and for fantasy. For those who grabbed him early off the waiver wire, well done. Fun fact: He’s scored more FPPG than Patrick Mahomes (who he went toe-to-toe with on Sunday, and only lost because the Chiefs appear poised to win 18 straight games that could’ve gone either way). He’s also scored more FPPG than very capable veterans Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott…the list goes on.
Part of that success has been from some surprising upside as a runner. He has 290 rushing yards and four rushing TDs on the season. He has thrived in easier matchups and struggled at times against better defenses, so that’s something to watch. The Broncos have decent enough weapons, and he’s got Sean Payton coaching him, so the overall situation is favorable. If you’ve got him rostered in a Superflex, he’s a solid QB2 most weeks, and I think you can spot-start him as needed in a 1-QB league. He’s got the seventh easiest remaining schedule among QBs, including some nice playoff matchups.
3. Drake Maye (current overall rank: QB15, 16.9 FPPG)
Like Nix, Maye has been sneaky-good as a starter, and a nice waiver wire find. In the five games he has started and finished, he’s got three Top-12 weekly finishes, and hasn’t finished with less than 11.5 fantasy points. He’s proving to be a legitimate dual-threat, and those rushing points add up. He’s also on a below-average team that’s often trailing—another plus for fantasy.
There are also some negatives with his situation: His offensive line is porous, his non-descript receiver group lacks playmakers, and I’ve got some questions about the coaching staff. But he’s been making do and will only get better with more experience. He’s a very playable QB2 for Superflex ROS, with some streaming upside. His remaining schedule is decent, too.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Group 3: Streamer as needed, wait and see
4. Caleb Williams (current overall rank: QB25, 14 FPPG)
It’s been a tale of three seasons so far for Williams: A slow start, a brief surge, and then a drastic drop. I was much lower than consensus on Williams in the preseason (I had him as QB17, his ADP was QB11), and I thought the hype train was moving too fast and that he was going to need time to adjust from the college game and figure it out. Williams did have a couple of very good games right before Chicago’s Bye (against the Panthers and Jaguars, who are among the most toothless cats you’re going to see), but the bottom line is that he’s been very inconsistent, and frequently off-target as a thrower. Check that, he has been consistent the last three weeks – consistently bad.
And that’s been part of an overall team funk. Da Bears have seen their season begin to crumble since Daniels beat them on a Hail Mary that didn’t even reach the end zone. In the two games since that crushing loss, they haven’t scored a TD across 22 possessions. Williams hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy points or thrown a TD pass (or run for a TD) in the last three contests. His completion percentage and yardage totals have cratered as well. He currently sits 32nd in completion percentage and 28th in QBR and Rating among qualifying QBs. His rankings in the advanced metrics (things like uncatchable passes, off-target throws, etc.) are just as bad. He also leads the league with 38 sacks taken and is holding onto the ball too long. I’ll stop there.
The thinking in the preseason was that he was landing in the best situation of the rookie QBs, given the Bears’ skill position players, but it hasn’t worked out that way. The offensive line is a mess, and the coaching staff, which will likely be gone after this season, doesn’t get high marks. I wouldn’t start Williams right now, even in better matchups. It’s way too early to write him off, and he’s shown some of the improvisational playmaking ability that made him such an enticing prospect. But the situation is ugly at the moment, and nobody wants ugly in a fantasy lineup.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Projecting the Average Draft Position (ADP) of these four QBs for next season is easier than it is for the WRs. I’ll assume Penix will go into next season as the Falcons’ backup, and I won’t make any assumption about McCarthy. Obviously, coaching and personnel changes will happen, which will impact the QBs. But based on what we know no, this is how I see it.
How QBs are drafted varies significantly between 1-QB and 2-QB leagues/Superflex formats, so rather than trying to forecast draft rounds, I’ll take a shot at forecasting ADP. The below is for 12-Team redraft leagues:
Jayden Daniels, ADP: QB5
Drake Maye, ADP: QB15
Bo Nix, ADP: QB16
Caleb Williams, ADP: QB20
J.J. McCarthy: N/A
Undrafted (waiver wire): Michael Penix, Jr. and Spencer Rattler
That’s all I’ve got. I can see the 2025 QB class coming over the horizon, but that’s another story for another day.
Check out my weekly fantasy preview/Start-sit each Thursday, and my weekly fantasy waiver wire column each Monday, at SBNation sister site Big Blue View.
