Final 16 teams in Women’s World Cup, ranked by their championship chances

Photo by Maja Hitij – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

Ranking the 16 teams left standing at the Women’s World Cup

The Round of 16 is set to get underway at the Women’s World Cup, and thanks to an unimpressive round of group play from the prohibitive favorites, the knockout round looks more wide open than ever.

Despite entering the Women’s World Cup as the top-ranked team in the world, the United States needed some assistance from the woodwork to advance out of their group, as a late attempt from Portugal careened off the post. Had that shot gone in, the United States would have been sent packing.

Instead, the USWNT moves on as the runners-up in their group, rewarded with a brutal Round of 16 matchup with Sweden. As we note, the vibes are in shambles.

While the United States has struggled, a number of teams have stepped up in recent days, which should make for a fascinating Round of 16.

Here are the last 16 nations left standing at the Women’s World Cup, ranked by their championship chances.

1. Japan

There is a strong case to be made that Japan is the best team in the tournament. They were one of the first nations to clinch a spot in the knockout round, opening up group play with a pair of wins, but faced a heavyweight bout in their group play finale with Spain to determine who would win Group C.

Japan did, with a stunning 4-0 performance. The Nadeshiko were effective, and clinical, particularly on the counterattack. While Spain dominated possession, Japan dominated the scoresheet, with Hinata Miyazawa scoring twice. When Spain did get on the front foot, Japan was so disciplined on defense that Spain could not break through.

The Nadeshiko entered the Women’s World Cup sitting 11th in FIFA’s rankings, but based on what we have seen, they are one of the best teams at this moment, and that might be enough.

2. Sweden

Sweden has always been a good team, but this World Cup they’ve really put it all together to become one of the most fearsome teams in the tournament. After getting their footing against South Africa with a 2-1 win, the team has been a scoring explosion, demolishing Italy 5-0 and taking down Argentina 2-0.

The enter the knockout stage with the second-best goal differential in the tournament after Japan, and seem poised to run through the competition thanks to a fairly soft draw. If they can get past USA there’s a very good chance they’ll run to the finals.

There are two main reasons for this: Arsenal’s Amanda Ilestedt and Barcelona’s Fridolina Rolfö the two have combined for five goals so far, and look utterly unstoppable. With a deep bench and peerless tactics, this team will be in it for the long haul.

3. Netherlands

The Netherlands did something against Vietnam that they had never done before in a Women’s World Cup Match.

Win by more than two goals.

However, their 7-0 throttling of Vietnam not only gave them the victory, it sent them to the top of the group, banishing the United States to runner-up status. Esmee Brugts scored a pair of long-distance stunners, and knowing goal differential could play a critical role, the Netherlands got up early, and stayed up.

It was a strong finish to what has been an impressive run in group play. Lost in the roar over the performance from the USWNT is what the Netherlands did in their 1-1 draw, which was to take control early, and then frustrate the US attack in the second half.

Their reward for the effort? A Round of 16 match against South Africa, the second-lowest ranked team remaining in the tournament.

4. England

The Lionesses are coming off their best performance of the tournament, a 6-1 rout of China that saw them emerge as the winners of Group D. While their first two wins were somewhat underwhelming — a singular moment of brilliance from Lauren James early against Denmark proved decisive in their second match — their impressive win over China could rightly be viewed as a warning to the other 15 nations left standing. James scored twice, continuing her incredible form, but Alessia Russo, Lauren Hemp, Chloe Kelly, Rachel Daly all found the net, along with the brace from James.

Remember, England is doing this while being ravaged by injuries, as Leah Williamson, Beth Mead, and Fran Kirby were all injured ahead of the tournament. The team got more bad news when Keira Walsh suffered an injury in the win over Denmark, and while she avoided an ACL tear, her status is unknown for the knockout round. But if they perform this weekend as they did against China, they will be a tough out.

5. Australia

The Cinderella performers of the tournament, hosts Australia has quickly gone from being a feel-good hometown story to a legitimate threat this World Cup. Everything tactically is coming together for the Matildas, and this was on full display in their 4-0 beatdown of Canada, which cemented their spot in the knockout round.

The big question moving forward is how this team handles themselves tactically. The chemistry the team has right now is on-par with some of the best in the world, but now Sam Kerr is set to return from injury after the Aussie star was injured on the eve of the World Cup.

The two-time Golden Boot winner and one of the most prolific scorers on the planet, Kerr is too good to leave out of the Matildas’ lineup, and how she’s integrated into the attack in the knockout stage will determine Australia’s chances from here on.

6. France

It has been a tumultuous few months, but Les Bleus are through to the knockout round, have survived a managerial sacking, and a tough group draw. Corinne Diacre was dismissed in March after several players, including captain Wendie Renard, walked away from the team. Renard declared it was necessary to preserve her mental health, and teammates Marie-Antoinette Katoto and Kadidiatou Diani followed suit.

That opened the door for Herve Renard, who coached Saudi Arabia at the Men’s World Cup in Qatar, to take over. Despite having no experience in the women’s game, Renard and Les Bleus are through as the surprising winners of Group F, with wins over Panama and Brazil.

Diani, one of the players to leave in the spring, netted a hat trick in the finale against Panama. France was also in position to rest a few players in that match, including Renard and all-time leading scorer Eugenie Le Sommer.

7. Spain

Spain may have advanced as the runners-up out of Group C, but this is still one of the best teams in the world. In fact, had these rankings come out prior to the finale of group play, Spain might have topped the rankings, having outscored Costa Rica and Zambia by a combined 8-0. This is also a team that ran through their entire qualifying campaign having scored 53 goals, without conceding once.

Plus, La Roja gets a fairly favorable draw in the knockout round, going up against a Switzerland side that emerged as the winners of Group A with a win and a pair of draws. Switzerland was ranked 20th in the FIFA World Cup rankings coming into the tournament, which could work in Spain’s favor this weekend.

8. United States

Let’s just say this: the vibes are in shambles right now for the USWNT. After two consecutive draws to the Netherlands and Portugal, the US Women’s team enters the knockout round with a lot to prove. Manager Vlatko Andonovski has to manage his substitutions better, and get the team to play a more attacking, free flowing style of football.

Yes, teams are putting five at the back and daring them to get past, but the US should have answers for this. I’m not buying the ideas that this is the least talented women’s soccer team in a long time, but in order for them to make a deep run, they’re going to have to find ways to consistently get into attacking position.

Luckily, they don’t play anyone super dangerous in the Round of 16, right?

(/checks notes)

Oh. They play Sweden. Let’s hope for the best.

9. Colombia

Reaching this point is a phenomenal achievement for Colombia, but a lot is still unknown about how good this team is moving forward. Obviously making it out of groups against Germany and Korea was a massive achievement, though it’s difficult to discern how much of that was due to their own talent — or whether it was more a case of collapse from them competition.

This leaves them as one of the biggest question marks moving forward. We could equally expect to see Colombia dominate and prove they’re a legitimate threat, or flame out against Jamaica on Tuesday.

Losing to Morocco to close out groups didn’t exactly inspire confidence, but anything could happen.

10. Nigeria

The Super Falcons are soaring into the round of 16 after comfortably finishing second behind Australia in their group. The offense gets most of the attention (three goals in three matches so far), and their ability to create offense in the final third has been pretty good so far. However, they do allow quite a bit of progressive passes into their final third, which could be a problem against the more impressive offenses they’ll see in the knockout rounds, like England, who they match up against on Aug. 7. Forward Uchenna Kanu is one to watch for Nigeria, as she leads the Super Falcons in progressive passes received and has one goal in the tournament.

11. Denmark

Everything on paper tells you that Denmark should be rated higher. They had a convincing performance in groups, losing only to powerhouse England — but this was a very weak group stage to get out of with China and Haiti.

Their biggest test comes immediately against Australia, who will have the home crowd behind them to such an extent that they will need to overcome the psychological edge that brings.

The big thing for Denmark in the knockout stage is to find more goal scoring. The team only managed a +2 goal differential in their three group games, and with Sam Kerr returning to Australia’s lineup it’s going to be a big ask to make it through.

12. Norway

It has been a shaky few weeks for Norway, but thanks to a 6-0 thumping of the Philippines in the final match of group play, The Grasshoppers will move on.

Norway got off to a slow start, losing 1-0 to New Zealand and settling for a scoreless draw with Switzerland. Making matters worse, Caroline Graham Hansen blasted coaching decisions following the Switzerland match, as she was benched following a disappointing performance against New Zealand.

Graham Hansen subsequently apologized for her comments, and was back in the lineup against the Philippines, netting one of the team’s six goals. A hat trick from Sophie Román Haug was critical as well, as Norway advanced.

However, they face a challenging road ahead, as they’ll face Japan, perhaps the hottest team in the tournament, in the Round of 16.

13. Switzerland

Thanks to a 2-0 victory over the Philippines, and a pair of goalless draws against Norway and New Zealand, Switzerland not only advanced to the knockout round for just the second time in Women’s World Cup history.

A case for the Swiss begins with their defense. They have yet to concede in the tournament, and in their finale against New Zealand — needing just a point to advance as the winners of Group A — they were more than content to park the bus and look for opportunities on the counterattack. While that worked in group play, they’ll need to get more from their forwards, in particular Ramona Bachmann, if they are going to keep this run alive.

14. Jamaica

Perhaps the best story of the Women’s World Cup so far? Jamaica. A team that needed to set up a GoFundMe to help fund their journey, due to failures of the Jamaica Football Federation to adequately support the team.

However, the Reggae Girlz are through to the knockout round for the first time in history, their 0-0 draw against Brazil being enough to send Jamaica on, and the powerhouse Brazilians home.

Jamaica has been stout defensively during the tournament. They have yet to concede and held both France and Brazil scoreless, and have been content to pack things in defensively and live for the counterattack. That got them through to the knockout round, but will it be enough to keep their dreams alive?

15. Morocco

In a bit of a stunner, Morocco advanced to the Round of 16, tying Colombia in wins in group play. The Atlas Lionesses stunned powerhouse Germany, eliminating them from the World Cup despite losing 6-0 to the German team to open group play. The Moroccan national team is battle tested, winning both of their games 1-0 in their WWC debut. Midfielder Fatima Tagnaout leads the team in Shot Creating Actions (take-ons, fouls drawn and passes leading to shot attempts), while forwards Ibtissam Jraïdi and Anissa Lahmari have scored the only two goals of the tourney for Morocco.

16. South Africa

Rounding out the top 16 is South Africa, who come in finishing second behind Sweden in their group. After an injury-time winner to qualify for the knockout rounds, South Africa creates a historic event for the continent. This is the first time three African teams have made the round of 16 in the Women’s World Cup. Forward Thembi Kgatlana is tied for the team lead with two goals and leads the team in assists, while Hildah Magaia also has two goals. Most of the offense runs through those two, leading the team in progressive passes received, so for them to advance past the knockout rounds, they’ll have to be in their best form.