The men’s NCAA tournament is down to four teams, and only the No. 1 seeds are still dancing. Let’s rank them by their championship chances.
The top teams during the 2024-2025 men’s college basketball season always seemed a cut above the rest of the country. That idea was confirmed forever when all four No. 1 seeds reached the men’s Final Four for the first time since 2008.
This tournament never produced a real Cinderella, and only had one true buzzer-beater. The good news is that the best is yet to come. The Auburn Tigers face the Florida Gators in an SEC showdown in one national semifinal. The Duke Blue Devils and the No. 1 offense takes on the Houston Cougars and its No. 1 defense in the other Final Four game. The stage is set for some incredible basketball, and each one of these teams has reason to believe it can win it all.
The conclusion of this tournament is going to be worth the wait. Let’s rank the four teams still standing in men’s March Madness by their chances of winning it all.
4. Houston Cougars
Kelvin Sampson has had some great teams at Houston, reaching the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for six straight years. Sampson took the Cougars to the Final Four in 2021 before falling to eventual champion Baylor. Now Houston is back in the Final Four, and there’s a case to be made that this is Sampson’s best team yet. The Cougars are No. 1 in defensive efficiency as they often are, but this year’s team doesn’t just have defenders: it has shooters, too. Houston is No. 1 in the country in team three-point percentage at just under 40 percent. Emanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer, and Milos Uzan is a great perimeter trio. Jo Tugler brings length and rim protection to the defensive front court, while J’Wan Roberts can wall off the paint. Houston’s aggressive ball screen hedging is going to be something Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel have never seen before in the Final Four. If Uzan can break down Duke’s defense off the dribble and hit his shooters, Houston has a pathway to pulling the upset.
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
3. Auburn Tigers
Auburn is so much more than a one-man show, but it doesn’t hurt to get a reminder that the Tigers have a top-2 player in college basketball on their side. Johni Broome took over the Elite Eight against Michigan State to push the Tigers into the Final Four and give his team the chance to realize their national championship dreams. Broome dominated the Spartans with 25 points and 14 rebounds on 10-of-13 shooting. Front court partner Dylan Cardwell might be the best defensive center in America, and freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has supernova scoring ability when he’s locked in. In some regard, wings Chad Baker-Mazara and Miles Kelly feel like the best gauge of how well Auburn is playing: when they’re on, this team is virtually unbeatable. Auburn has already played all three Final Four teams this season, losing to Duke and Florida and beating Houston. Going through that type of gauntlet should only help them in San Antonio, and no one should doubt their talent.
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
2. Florida Gators
Florida looked like a powerhouse after rolling through the SEC tournament, but the Gators have flirted with disaster multiple times since the NCAA tournament started. UConn had Florida on the ropes in the round of 32, but star guard Walter Clayton Jr. saved the day with a pair of dagger three-pointers late. After a Sweet 16 domination of Maryland, Florida was again in danger in the Elite Eight, and again it was Clayton Jr. who delivered. Florida was down 10 to Texas Tech with under six minutes left when Clayton ripped three huge three-pointers and set up teammate Thomas Haugh for two more threes. Haugh’s emergence gives the Gators another valuable tough cover as an athletic 6’9 sophomore with skill. Clayton is on his way to March Madness forever hero status with two more wins, but it’s Florida’s depth that really gives them a chance to win every night. The Gators might not be playing their best ball right now, but this team still has an appealing combination of a high-floor and high-ceiling that lets it grind out games and turn on the jets in big moments. That’s a winning combination at the highest levels.
1. Duke Blue Devils
It’s a testament to Duke’s firepower that Cooper Flagg can play a B- game and the Blue Devils can still rout an great opponent like Alabama as they did in the Elite Eight. Flagg’s ball handling was exposed a bit in an inefficient scoring night, but Duke has so many other weapons who were ready to step up. Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel is an NBA lottery pick in his own right, and he showed he can create offense with the ball in his hands and knock down shots all over the floor in the win over Alabama. Knueppel has a special connection with freshman center Khaman Maluach in the pick-and-roll, and the big man used every bit of his length to finish inside and protect the rim. Duke only needs one other role player to get hot to run teams off the floor, and Tyrese Proctor was up for the task in the regional final. Duke has the best player left in the field in Flagg, the biggest player left in Maluach, and the most impressive depth of any team still dancing. It feels like Duke’s best performance is still better than anyone else’s. We’ve seen a strong freshmen core lead Duke to a national championship before in 2015 when it was Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Grayson Allen powering their success. This year’s group is every bit as good, and it feels destined for the same ending.
