Heisman finalists in 2023, ranked by likelihood to win college football’s top award

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Let’s break down this year’s Heisman race after the four finalists were announced.

We now know the four finalists for the 2023 Heisman Trophy award.

But which of these four college football standouts will hear their name called on Saturday night?

The four athletes heading to New York City are Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Oregon QB Bo Nix, Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., and LSU QB Jayden Daniels. There is a case to be made for — and against — each player. So let’s do just that, ranking the four Heisman finalists along with outlining why, or why not, they could take home the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night.

4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the 2023 college football season facing huge expectations, and he largely lived up to the hype. After catching 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns as season ago, Harrison nearly duplicated those numbers, catching 67 passes for 1,211 yards and 14 more scores.

The case for Harrison: The Heisman Trophy is not an award for the “best NFL draft prospect,” but rather for the “most outstanding college football player in the United States whose performance epitomizes great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work.”

Under either criteria, however, you can make a case for Harrison.

Of these four finalists, there is a strong likelihood that Harrison is the first player taken in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even in a year with Ohio State breaking in a new starting quarterback, Harrison matched his production from a season ago, despite the eyes of the football world — as well as every opposing defensive coordinator and defensive back — on him.

And he was a huge reason the Buckeyes finished the season with 11 wins.

Because Harrison showed up in the big games. Against Michigan in the regular-season finale, Harrison caught 5 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. Against Penn State, a team that was ranked in the top ten, he caught 11 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. He caught a TD in all but two games this year, and both (Notre Dame and Indiana in the season opener) were games the Buckeyes struggled on offense. He is the best player at his position, and arguably the best football player in this class.

The case against Harrison: It might start with those two letters after his full name: “WR.” Because the Heisman Trophy has been dominated by quarterbacks in recent years. Out of the last 20 winners, 17 were passers. Only two running backs — Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram — won the award.

And just one wide receiver, DeVonta Smith in 2020.

That season the four finalists who attended the virtual ceremony were Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask. It was not the strongest quarterback class of finalists, and consider the numbers Smith put up that season: He caught 98 passes for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns, surpassing the production from Harrison this season.

And he also did it on a team that was headed into the College Football Playoff. Which might matter, because voters had one extra look at two of the other finalists, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., during Conference Championship weekend.

In another year, Harrison might fare better. But this year, given recent history, he might face some long odds.

3. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

The Bo Nix we have seen the past two years at Oregon is the quarterback many expected to see when his college career began at Auburn. Last year Nix completed 71.9% of his passes for 3,583 yards and 29 touchdowns, but this year he took a huge step forward in production. Nix connected on nearly 80% of his throws — 77.2% — for 4,145 yards and 40 touchdowns, leading Oregon to the Pac-12 Championship Game.

The case for Nix: It starts with the production. Nix was among the FBS leaders in a number of statistical categories, including completion percentage (first), yards (second), yards per attempt (fourth), adjusted yards per attempt (fourth), touchdowns (tied for first), and NCAA passer rating (second).

He has been one of the most efficient passers in all of college football, while still pushing the ball downfield in the vertical passing game. While he still trails Mac Jones’ 2020 completion percentage record of 77.4%, early reports indicate that Nix is going to play in the Fiesta Bowl, which could see him break that mark.

If an efficient, aggressive passer who put up big numbers sounds like a Heisman winner, then Nix might be your candidate.

The case against Nix: It begins with the fact that Nix and the Ducks lost twice to Washington, and fellow Heisman finalist Michael Penix, Jr.. While Nix played well in both games, throwing for a combined five touchdowns and just one interception, Oregon came up short in both contests.

Including in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

The other strike against him? While his numbers were good … another finalist’s were better.

2. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

The Michael Penix story is one of resilience and resurgence. After transferring from Indiana to Washington after multiple knee injuries, Penix has been nothing short of masterful as QB of the Huskies. In two years with the Huskies, Penix has thrown for 8,859 yards and 64 touchdowns, but this year might be his overall best. In 2023 Penix has thrown for 4,218 yards and 33 TDs and adding three rushing touchdowns as well.

The case for Penix: If this award were for the QB on the best team in the country, it should be given to Penix. The Huskies are undefeated and finished with the number 2 seed in the final CFP rankings, and Penix wasn’t just a point guard of that offense. Penix finished the regular season first in the nation in passing yards, third in passing touchdowns and top ten in Adjusted Net Yards per attempt. If you see those stats and think they don’t compare to the other QBs on this list, Penix leads the pack of Heisman QBs in Average Throw Depth. He’s taking trick shots and nailing them across the board.

In addition, Penix has the Heisman moments, namely beating Oregon and fellow finalist Bo Nix twice this year. Standout duels with former Heisman winner Caleb Williams and USC are also on the chart as well. If you want a guy with gaudy stats and the wins to back it up, Penix is your guy.

The case against Penix: I guess the biggest case against Penix is that his numbers are just a little bit worse than the guy in the top spot, which should tell you all about the year it was for QB’ing at the college football level.

1. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

What an individual year for Daniels. After flirting with entering the NFL Draft last year, Daniels returned for his senior season and simply lit the college football world on fire. This year Daniels accounted for almost 5,000 yards of total offense and 50 total touchdowns, and guiding the Tigers to one of their best offensive seasons ever.

The case for Daniels: All. Those. STATS! Daniels is third in the nation in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns and seventh in completion percentage. Oh and ALSO finished in the top 25 in the nation for rushing yards and added ten touchdowns on the ground. LSU finished in the top five in terms of yards per game (first) and points per game (fourth), and it was mainly because of Daniels. His deep ball accuracy took off this year, and with it came an offensive explosion from the Tigers. He also has Heisman moments, stat-wise. Running for 234 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing for 374 yards and three touchdowns against Florida comes to mind.

Daniels was the best QB in college football this year, and should win the Heisman because of that.

The case against Daniels: Did LSU win enough games for Daniels to win the Heisman? Yes, Daniels put up insane stats, but LSU went 9-3 and lost almost every big game they had against top competition. They lost to Florida State to open the season, then lost to Ole Miss, and Daniels was knocked out of the Alabama game with a concussion, which LSU lost. The biggest win LSU has against a team that finished with a winning record is Missouri on the road, but outside of that LSU and Daniels didn’t get enough wins against top opponents to raise his Heisman stock.

Even when Lamar Jackson won the Heisman in 2016, he had the major blowout win against then-number 2 Florida State and took then-number 5 Clemson to the limit. Daniels doesn’t have those games on his record, and it might keep him away from the Heisman.