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The Knicks have their face of the franchise, and now Jalen Brunson is an All-Star.
Jalen Brunson is set to appear in his first-ever All-Star game. An impressive feat that he should cherish for the rest of his days.
And while some may view an All-Star nomination as an award for being one of the marquee players of the first half of the year, the selection is technically supposed to symbolize that the player is one of the 25 best the league has to offer.
So, is Brunson a top-25 player in the NBA right now?
Jalen Brunson scouting report: offense
If forced to describe Brunson’s offensive game in one word, the term of choice would be “control.” Brunson doesn’t let the game come to him. He dictates the terms of engagement.
On the season, only Luka Doncic and Trae Young (the NBA’s usage kings) spend more time with the ball in their hands than Brunson (per NBA.com). Some of this is out of necessity. The New York Knicks don’t really have a better option than Brunson helio-ball. But a lot of this is due to Brunson’s ability to control the pieces on the board and constantly make the right decision.
Brunson uses his combination of handle, strength, and footwork to get as deep into the paint as his smaller stature will let him in order to fire up his patented short midrange floaters. According to Cleaning the Glass, Brunson is in the 80th percentile in short midrange accuracy (50%) among point guards.
Once you have full control of your own body, you are able to leverage that mastery to fool your opponents. Brunson uses his wide array of carefully crafted pump fakes and body flails to seduce defenders into ill-advised fouls. Like this:
On the year, Brunson averages 6.5 free throw attempts per 75 possessions, which puts him in the 94th percentile in the entire NBA (per Dunks & Threes). Being able to consistently land a spot on the free throw line helps him compensate for his below-average rim frequency (36th percentile among point guards) and accuracy (42nd percentile).
Another micro skill in his arsenal is the ability to maintain his dribble as he’s surveying the court. This has grown increasingly valuable as his reputation as an offensive player has grown – leading his opponents to throw more double teams in his direction.
Brunson’s size makes it harder for him to see over the top of these doubles (more on this in a moment). But since he can prolong his dribble, he keeps the second defender glued to him long enough for him to properly assess the pieces on the battlefield.
(Sidebar: When you get doubled and discontinue your dribble, it allows that second defender to rotate back over to their initial assignment without the defense having to pay the power play tax that they initially conceded by making the decision to double. The longer you keep your dribble, the longer the second defender has to stick to you.)
And unlike many ball-dominant floor generals of the past, Brunson has the ability to shift away from the ball and provide value as a spacer. Over the last three years, Brunson is hitting 44% of his wide-open threes (88th percentile, per Thinking Basketball database).
None of the skills we’ve outlined so far are new developments for Brunson this year (albeit some parts are more refined). Yet he’s gone from averaging 25.4 points per 75 (94th percentile) to 28.3 points per 75 (98th percentile) – while also maintaining his scoring efficiency. How is that?
Brunson is notorious for having an unbeatable work ethic. After all, you don’t get that good, at that size, without outworking the field.
Anyways, Brunson entered last offseason needing to increase his 3-point volume to make up for his subpar rim numbers. True to form, Brunson put in the necessary work and did just that. This year, he’s averaging a career-high 6.7 threes per 75 (72nd percentile) after averaging just 5.0 per 75 in 2022-23 (50th percentile).
Most of this bump has come in his pull-up three-point shooting, which has gone from 1.8 pull-ups per 36 minutes (69th percentile) to 2.5 per 36 (80th percentile). This bump in 3-point volume (while maintaining 3-point efficiency) has enabled Brunson to increase his scoring volume without a dip in his overall scoring efficiency.
Along with his rim pressure woes, Brunson isn’t a perfect facilitator. Even with his dribble skills, Brunson’s height limits some of the passing reads he can make (first clip in the montage below). He also has a tendency to be a bit score-focused on his drives, which can cause him to opt for difficult shots over passes to open teammates (second clip). Of the 196 players this year who average at least three drives per game and have played at least 20 games, Brunson’s pass rate on drives (36.4%) is in only the 42nd percentile.
Even though he’s not an elite passer, he’s still good enough to be one of the best offensive players on the planet. The Knicks, despite not possessing a gold mine of offensive talent, are in the 94th percentile in offensive rating when Brunson is on the floor. And Brunson himself is 10th in the entire NBA in Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (OFF EPM).
Jalen Brunson scouting report: defense
If it didn’t register with you the first couple of times we mentioned it, Brunson is a little guy (6’2) in a game that favors giants. This clearly affects his defense. Look here as Brunson’s sound defense is made meaningless by Kris Dunn’s superior size and strength — and Dunn isn’t even that big of a guy!
But Brunson doesn’t let his biological disadvantages slow him down. Brunson’s like a prize fighter, and it’s not just because of the way he does his hand tape. He’s a fierce warrior, willing to battle with bigger defenders in the paint like he’s the second coming of Kyle Lowry. Look at how hard he works to deny Dillon Brooks the mismatch post-up (one of the most effective types of post-ups):
The big issue with Brunson’s player archetype (the offensively-charged miniature guard) is that they often end up being a moving target on defense in the playoffs. Last season, Brunson fulfilled that prophecy – placing in the sixth percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM).
Now, he’s near league average in this metric (48th percentile). And a lot of it is due to his doubling down on his greatest defensive strength: drawing charges. After compelling 27 charges in 68 games last year, Brunson is already up to 24 charges in 51 games this year (which is tied for the league lead with rookie Brandin Podziemski). For those wondering, if he keeps up his current pace, he’ll be at 36 charges by the end of the regular season.
(Sidebar #2: Head Coach Tom Thibodeau’s legendary inclination to ride his starters hard – Brunson is in the 98th percentile in minutes per game this year – has led to lapses in the southpaw’s defensive effort from time to time.)
Overall, Brunson is still a below average defender overall. But his physicality and guile makes him a better defender than some of the other players in his archetype (i.e., Damian Lillard, Trae Young, and Tyrese Haliburton).
Bottom line
That recipe of world-class offense with below average overall defense (average for his position) can take you a long way in 2023-24.
EPM (arguably the best publicly-available one-number metric on the market) has Brunson at 14th in the entire NBA. Basketball Reference’s BPM has Brunson at 18th. And The Ringer, in their top-100 rankings, has him as the 15th-best player in basketball.
His standing in these databases pretty accurately summarizes Brunson’s standing in the league’s hierarchy. Brunson currently is a solid All-Star/fringe All-NBA caliber player. I, personally, can only name 17-18 NBA players that are pretty clearly better than Brunson right now.
All things considered, there likely aren’t 25 people in the world better than Brunson. It looks like he truly is worthy of his All-Star nomination.
Statistics in this article are updated as of Wednesday afternoon.
