Both Ferrari and McLaren can win the F1 Constructors’ Championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Here is how
After 23 race weekends the Formula 1 grid arrives at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, the season’s final race, with the Constructors’ Championship still up for grabs. Just two teams remain in contention, McLaren and Ferrari, with 21 points separating the two rivals.
McLaren had a chance to clinch the title last weekend at the Qatar Grand Prix, and a front-row lockout from Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the F1 Sprint Race in Qatar — coupled with both drivers running in the top three in the Grand Prix — put them on the verge of clinching the Championship. However, a ten-second stop-and-go penalty handed down to Norris in the closing stages of the race dropped him from second down to P15, and while Norris fought to get back into the points, it allowed Ferrari to close the gap between the two teams from 30 down to 21. Right now McLaren has 640 points on the year, with Ferrari sitting on 619.
That gives Ferrari a chance this weekend, but McLaren still holds the advantage.
Here are the title permutations for both teams heading into the final race of the season.
How many points are left to be decided in the 2024 F1 season?
With just one Grand Prix remaining, this is rather straightforward. The most a team can bank in a single grand prix is 44 points: 25 points for first place, 18 points for second place, and a bonus point for one of the drivers picking up the fastest lap of the race.
It should be noted that between the two teams, only Ferrari has accomplished this feat during the 2024 season. That came at the Australian Grand Prix back at the start of the year, when Carlos Sainz Jr. won with Charles Leclerc finishing second, and Leclerc picked up the bonus point for the fastest lap of the race.
While McLaren does have a one-two finish on the books this season, at the Hungarian Grand Prix where Piastri won and Norris finished second, George Russell took the bonus point that day.
Red Bull accomplished that feat twice earlier in the year, at the Bahrain Grand Prix and then at the Japanese Grand Prix. Max Verstappen won both races — taking the bonus point in each — with Sergio Pérez finishing second in both races.
Before diving into the various scenarios it is worth remembering how F1 allocates points in grands prix. The winner takes home 25 points, with a sliding scale from there. The second-place driver banks 18, third place 15, and then 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and down to a single point for the 10th-place driver.
How can McLaren clinch the Constructors’ Championship?
With a 21-point lead over Ferrari, McLaren needs to add 24 points in Abu Dhabi to clinch the title and prevent Ferrari from catching them. 24 points would bring their lead over Ferrari to 45 points, one point ahead of the maximum on offer this weekend.
They can also win the title if they score 43 points in Abu Dhabi, which would bring their lead to 44 points ahead of what Ferrari accomplishes in the race. However, that would require that neither Leclerc nor Sainz win the race. Should the two teams finish level on points, the first tiebreaker would be the number of race wins.
At the moment each team has five wins. But if Ferrari were to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, that would give them six, and a tiebreaker advantage should the two teams finish level on points.
The easiest way for McLaren to clinch the title? Either Piastri or Norris wins the race. That alone would give them 25 points, and an insurmountable lead for Ferrari.
Other combinations that would get McLaren the 24 points they need? A P2 (18 points) and a P7 (six points) would get the job done. A P3 (15 points) plus a P5 (10 points) would also be enough, even if Ferrari were to lock out the front row and pick up the bonus point.
McLaren has more pathways to win the Constructors’ Championship were Ferrari to finish further down the order, but assuming a Ferrari one-two, along with the bonus point, these are the results McLaren would need.
How can Ferrari clinch the Constructors’ Championship?
Ferrari, given the 21-point deficit, has a much narrower pathway to a title.
The easiest — albeit unlikely — path for Ferrari is for them to score 22 points or more, and see McLaren fail to earn a single point. If, hypothetically, one of their drivers wins the race that would give them 25 points, and a sudden four-point lead over McLaren. Then if both Piastri and Norris finish outside the points, that would be enough.
Or, as outlined above with McLaren, a P2 and a P7 would give Ferrari 24 points, and if McLaren failed to score that would amount to a three-point victory in the Constructors.
Where it gets tougher for Ferrari is when you start working through scenarios where McLaren at least finishes in the points. As noted above Ferrari could lock out the front row and pick up the bonus point, and a P3/P5 combination from McLaren would still be enough for the Woking-based team to win the title.
However, if Ferrari indeed locks out the front row and picks up the bonus point for the fastest lap, that would give them 44 points and a 23-point lead over McLaren. A P3 from one of McLaren’s drivers would cut that lead down to eight points, and a P6 from McLaren’s second driver would net McLaren another eight points, seeing the teams finish level on 663 points each.
But in that scenario, Ferrari’s win in Abu Dhabi would give them the tiebreaker advantage.
