Mark Henle/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Arizona Cardinals set themselves up for success in 2024
Before diving into this topic we need to establish two ground rules.
First is a lesson from my lawyering days. This is a lesson you learn early in law school, or if you do not learn it then, are quickly introduced to it in a hard way when practicing.
Never, under any set of circumstances, use the word “clearly.”
Because the second you tell a judge, or say to a jury, that “clearly X or Y happened,” they are going to look for evidence that you are wrong. It is almost human nature when confronted with that phrase. And if you have unfortunately missed something, a set of facts or a case that contradicts your point, “clearly” becomes “cloudy” in a hurry, and your credibility is shot.
The second rule comes from my second life. The idea of draft grades, or winners and losers, following the NFL draft can be a mixed proposition. Certainly, it is fair to look at a team’s process, or assign grades based on our evaluations of a roster, or a prospect, but there is a long way to go before final grades are in. Think of them as more of a progress report.
Now that we have set these two ground rules in place, let’s break them.
Because last week the Arizona Cardinals won the draft.
The 2024 NFL Draft.
We knew going into the 2023 NFL Draft that the Cardinals were looking to get out of the third-overall selection. They accomplished that goal, executing a trade with the Houston Texans on the first night of the draft. Houston came up to select Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. moments after drafting C.J. Stroud, the Ohio State quarterback.
Arizona moved back to No. 12, before coming up in a trade with the Detroit Lions back to No. 6, where they drafted Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.
Ultimately, the trade between the Texans and the Cardinals saw Arizona add Houston’s second-round pick in 2023 (No. 33, which Arizona later traded to the Tennessee Titans as part of a move for Tennessee to draft Will Levis), along with Houston’s first- and third-round picks next season.
As things stand right now, the Cardinals have two picks in the first round next year (theirs and Houston’s), a pick in the second round, and then three more in the third. In addition to receiving a 2024 third-round pick from Houston, the Cardinals received a 2024 third-round pick from the Titans as part of the Levis deal.
Six picks in the first three rounds.
That is a lot of draft capital.
But that is not all. Consider this. Right now, using reverse Super Bowl odds as a means of determining draft order, the Cardinals and the Texans are the two longest shots to win Super Bowl 58, with both teams currently listed at +20000 on Draft Kings.
Tennessee is fourth-longest, at +8000.
That means that, theoretically, the Cardinals could own not just the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft — as you see in this early 2024 mock draft from Pro Football Focus — but six of the first 68 selections.
That is a chance to add a tremendous amount of talent.
Of course, things could change. One, or all, of these teams, could surpass expectations, shaking up that draft order. There is a long way to go until training camp, and moves could still be made to improve each roster, along with their chances for next season.
There is also the chance that despite these long odds for Tennessee, Arizona, and Houston even another team — or teams — struggles, pushing some of these picks deeper down the board.
But as it stands right now, the Cardinals could have the first two picks in the draft. This leads to a scenario like we see in that early mock draft from PFF, where Arizona adds quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick, and gives him Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to with the second.
That is in line with our own J.P. Acosta’s 2024 big board, which has Harrison and Williams at the top.
Just for giggles, I took a hand at a three-round mock draft using the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator. Here is what I came away with for the Cardinals:
That is a lot of new talent to add to a roster over the first two nights of the draft. Now, the names likely change, the evaluations certainly will over the next 11 months, but this offers just a glimpse of the potential ahead for Arizona.
And, to spin this scenario forward even more, if the Cardinals are indeed holding the first two picks in the draft and intend on using one on a quarterback, moving Kyler Murray in a trade likely nets them even more draft capital.
Or, the Cardinals could be one of the teams that surpasses current Las Vegas expectations. In that scenario they forge ahead with Murray under center, but if their Texans pick is atop the draft board, they can pull off a trade with a team looking to move to the start of the draft for a quarterback, bringing even more draft capital to Arizona.
As noted, this could all change. Clear could become cloudy over the next 11 months.
But with what they did over the past few days, the Cardinals have a chance to dramatically retool — or even rebuild — their roster in 2024.
That much, at least, is clear.
