How the Buffalo Bills crashed through their closing Super Bowl window

The Buffalo Bills didn’t rebuild, they reloaded around Josh Allen.

Coming into the 2024 NFL season, it certainly looked as if the Buffalo Bills were in for a reality check.

From 2019 through 2023, the Bills had a regular-season record of 58-24-0, and that win total, as well as the .707 winning percentage, ranked second in the NFL behind only the Kansas City Chiefs (63-20-0 and .759). But those iterations of head coach Sean McDermott’s teams could never quite get past other AFC contenders when it was time to move to the Super Bowl. Only the Chiefs (16) and the San Francisco 49ers (12) had more postseason games than the Bills’ 10 in that five-year stretch, but Buffalo’s 5-5 postseason record told the tale.

Following Buffalo’s 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in the wild-card round of the 2023 playoffs, the Bills looked like a franchise ready to take a step back now in order to take several steps forward into the future. With the exception of Khalil Shakir, they let every receiver who caught a pass in the 2023 season leave the building via free agency or trade. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, their starting safeties for years and the two guys who glued their defense together more than anybody else, weren’t back for 2024 along with former All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White.

The roster turnover was severe, and especially after general manager Brandon Beane authorized the trade of former franchise receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in early April, it was Beane who had to try and convince the public that this was not a rebuild.

“These moves are never easy — very hard, not made overnight, anything like that — but any time you make a move like this, as I said, very difficult, you’re doing it because you’re trying to win,” Beane said then. “Sometimes, people may not see that. This is by no means the Bills giving up or trying to take a step back or anything like that. Everything we do, we’re trying to win, and we’re going to continue to do that.”

Even the most ardent Bills fan could be forgiven for thinking that Beane was either gilding the lily, or that he was outright delusional about his team’s process – and progress. Beane didn’t have the cap space to replace his departing stars and subs with equal big names, so he would have to reinforce the team via draft, and in the relative bargain bin where he could in free agency.

All of this preamble is to point out just how remarkable it is that everything Beane said back then has proven prescient. After their 35-10 Sunday night win over the 49ers, the Bills stand at 10-2 on the season. Only the 11-1 Chiefs have a better record in the AFC, and Buffalo has the tiebreaker there, should it become a thing, because they gave Kansas City its only loss to date on the season – a 30-21 Week 11 matchup in the Bills’ favor. Only the Detroit Lions have a higher point differential (+180) in the NFL than the Bills’ +131. And as it stands right now, Buffalo ranks third in Total DVOA, second in Offensive DVOA, and sixth in Defensive DVOA.

If this WAS a silent rebuild, 31 other teams would love to know how the Bills pulled it off. So, how have they pulled it off?

Buffalo Bills ‘Holdovers’ have played to (or beyond) expectations

As much as Beane and the Bills were looking for new faces in all kinds of places, the veterans who were asked to stay have performed at exceedingly high levels. Shakir has become one of the NFL’s best and most reliable slot receivers. An offensive line with three starters in the same places from last season (left tackle Dion Dawkins, right tackle Spencer Brown, and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence) has played better this season, with new starter David Edwards at right guard moving into the lineup from being the sixth man, and center Connor McGovern moving over from left guard, replacing Mitch Morse, who signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars (ouch).

One thing the Bills are doing now is just beating the snot out of opposing teams with six offensive linemen – that’s where Alec Anderson comes into the scene as the new sixth man. The Bills lead the NFL by far with 79 rushing plays in which there have been six angry guys up front, and they completely demolished San Francisco’s defense with it on 14 plays in the snow at Highmark Stadium. This is not the half-baked run game of the recent past.

And running back James Cook? What a revelation he’s been. In 2023, Cook carried the rock 273 times for 1,262 yards, two touchdowns, four fumbles, 43 forced missed tackles, 35 runs of 10 or more yards, and 10 runs of 15 or more yards. So far this season, Cook has 151 carries for 703 yards, 11 touchdowns, no fumbles, 27 forced missed tackles, 17 runs of 10 or more yards, and seven runs of 15 or more yards. This is who the 2022 second-round pick out of Georgia has become.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills have hoped for the best from young edge rushers Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, and a healthy Von Miller, and they’ve reaped the rewards, though Miller missed four games from Weeks 5-8 due to a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Rousseau, who has seven sacks and 50 total pressures on the season, is this year’s alpha dog, but Buffalo is getting pressures and sacks in bunches from different sources. In addition, the defensive tackle duo of Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones has held up well. The Bills don’t have the heaviest defensive line, but their Rushing EPA per pay allowed of -0.12 is a considerable improvement over last season’s -0.06.

Buffalo Bills ‘Replacements’ have stepped up

With Poyer and Hyde both gone, safety responsibility has fallen on veterans Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, as well as second-round rookie Cole Bishop from Utah. All have played well, especially Hamlin, whose presence on the field is a miracle after he nearly died on the field after a cardiac arrest incident against the Cincinnati Bengals on January 2, 2023. Now, Hamlin is more than a feel-good story. This season, he’s allowed 16 catches on 23 targets for 167 yards, 71 yards after the catch, one touchdown, two interceptions, two pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 68.6. Rapp, who the Bills signed to a three-year, $10.625 million deal with $3.675 million guaranteed after a good 2023 season with the team, has been even better in coverage – nine catches allowed on 17 targets for 114 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, three pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 34.6. Bishop has fit in as an injury replacement with a defense that requires its safeties to play interchangeably from the deep third to the box to the slot.

The Bills were without linebacker Matt Milano, perhaps their best defensive player, until Week 13 as Milano recovered from a torn biceps. As Milano is perhaps the team’s best defensive layer, that appeared to be a major problem. But it hasn’t been, as Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard have performed well enough to keep things in line. Now, the Bills can further benefit from Milano’s acumen and athleticism down the stretch.

And now, instead of the mercurial Stefon Diggs and a group of receivers behind him, Josh Allen’s targets are now a more integrated group. Shakir leads the way from the slot, tight end Danton Kincaid has become a major part of the passing game, and veteran Amari Cooper, acquired via trade from the Cleveland Browns in mid-October, has fit in rather nicely as well. Cooper had six dropped passes in six games with the Browns this season, he has one in four games with the Bills. So maybe we can blame that on Deshaun Watson and move along.

Speaking of Josh Allen… that dynamic has changed as well.

The Bills are no longer trying to build the entire plane around their quarterback

The Bills replaced offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady last November when the results predicated that move. There wasn’t too much Brady could do to change things in-season, but in the transition from 2023 to 2024, Josh Allen was clearly inspired by the difference.

I spoke with Allen in May, and he broke down how much Brady had him wanting to improve.

“I think the No. 1 thing he brings is juice and energy to our offense,” Allen said, when I asked him what makes Brady great at what he does. “Guys can feel how much he loves the game and how much he cares about it. We see how much work he puts into it — he’s in the facility all frickin’ day. And then, I’m actually so excited to make this his offense. I’m just an extension of what he’s trying to call, so I’m making sure we’re on the same page. He brings a lot of different concepts to our offense, which is a lot of fun for me.

“It’s not the same mundane things we’ve been doing for the last six years. It’s different stuff. My eyes have got to be better, my footwork has to be better, and ultimately, the ball placement has got to be better. So, it’s forcing me to be a better quarterback, and to learn different things, which I’m all about.”

So far, it’s resulted in Allen’s best season as a pure quarterback. His metrics are outstanding; 230 completions in 356 attempts for 2,691 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 100.3. Allen isn’t just chucking the ball downfield anymore, hoping for something good to happen. He’s in command of an offense that plays to his strengths.

And he’s also confident that he doesn’t have to be both perfect and amazing for the Bills to win. Though, as we have seen, he’s still capable of making the near-impossible look routine.

The field is clear for these new-look Bills

When you’re clicking on all cylinders as a team, that’s a great thing. But it also requires a bit of a nod from the Football Gods to put together a Super Bowl season. While the Bills are in place to be that team, the Chiefs are still struggling on offense as they were last season, and the Steve Spagnuolo-led defense that basically dragged that offense to last season’s Super Bowl win has regressed a bit. There are other respected contenders in the AFC, but how many would you say could easily beat these Bills on an even field?

The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings are among the teams presenting serious threats on the NFC side should Buffalo ascend to their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season. But again, looking at this team as assembled, how many opponents on that side of the league have the Bills in an overmatched state?

There’s still much work to be done before we can talk about Super Bowls, but it’s time to recognize that while most observers were sure that this team was going to step out of the octagon to rebuild, the idea was actually to reload and contend at the same time.

Not an easy thing to do, and worthy of much respect. Now, as Jake Taylor said in Major League,

“There’s only one thing left to do.”

“Win the whole [bleeping] thing.”