How Tua Tagovailoa won with his mind in Miami’s comeback against Detroit

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tua Tagovailoa has one of his best NFL games in a comeback win over the Lions

You have probably heard a lot about Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa over the past week or so. Not due to the concussion he suffered earlier in the season, and the alterations to the NFL’s concussion protocols implemented after the injury, but rather due to NFL analyst Emmanuel Acho. Last week, Acho made the case multiple times that Tagovailoa was a better quarterback than Justin Herbert, who was selected after him in the 2020 draft, touching off a firestorm of debate on social media that lasted well into the weekend.

Acho’s comments could not have come at a better time, because Tagovailoa went out on Sunday and put together his best game of the season, completing 29 of 36 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns, without an interception. His NFL passer rating of 138.7 was the best single-game mark of his entire career.

To put his performance in the win over the Detroit Lions in perspective, consider this graph from RBSDM.com:

Tagovailoa is almost off the scale. His Expected Points per Play (EPA/Play) of 0.701 led all quarterbacks this week, as did his Completion Percentage over Expectation (CPOE) of 23.1% Tagovailoa did this while averaging 11.4 Air Yards per Attempt, third-most among quarterbacks in Week 8.

Furthermore, Tagovailoa did this while leading the Dolphins back from a 14-point deficit. Twice.

What stands out regarding his performance is how well Tagovailoa handled things from a mental perspective. Yes, we all know that he has a lot of help, from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside to head coach Mike McDaniel using schematic elements to put him in a position to succeed. But watching Tagovailoa on Sunday you saw a confident quarterback winning with his mind, as much as he was with his arm.

We can start with this play from late in the first quarter, with the Dolphins trailing 14-0. Facing a 3rd and 13 near midfield, the Dolphins align in an empty formation, and see this look from the defense:

Given this pre-snap look, Tagovailoa might be expecting a Cover 0 blitz call from the defense, with Detroit playing man coverage on the receivers and bringing the house after him. However, as we have seen this year defenses are getting better and better at disguising their intentions before the play, so Tagovailoa still needs to confirm this after the snap.

Miami runs this mirrored route combination, with the slot receivers releasing vertically while the outside receivers run slant routes:

Detroit indeed blitzes, playing straight man coverage in the secondary. Tagovailoa makes an aggressive decision, targeting Hill on his vertical route out of the right slot:

The play goes for a huge gain, giving the Dolphins a fresh set of downs, and Miami would finish the drive with a touchdown pass from Tagovailoa to Waddle to cut the Lions’ lead in half. As many immediately pointed out, the pass was underthrown, and if Tagovailoa puts this out in front of Hill, it is likely a walk-in touchdown. And there are reasons why it was underthrown, starting with Tagovailoa’s feet. Rather than stepping through this throw — perhaps a tough ask due to the defender bearing down on him — Tagovailoa steps towards the sideline with his front foot, preventing him from getting more on the throw.

This is not the first time we have seen this from Tagovailoa. He made a similar underthrow on a deep shot to Hill in the preseason, as broken down by Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner here:

Putting aside the mechanics and the technique, what I love about this play from Tagovailoa is the read, and the decision. After the snap, Tagovailoa confirms the Cover 0 blitz scheme from Detroit, and makes an aggressive, yet appropriate, decision to target Hill on the vertical route. He makes it quickly in the down too, as you can tell from the state of play when Tagovailoa lets this fly:

Hill still has about five yards of cushion to erase, but Tagovailoa trusts his receiver to win with speed, and gives him a chance with this decision. Yes, Tagovailoa’s tendency to step in the bucket on throws like this one is something I would love to see him clean up, but I love the read and his aggressive decision in this situation.

Tagovailoa’s second quarter touchdown to Waddle offers another example of a great read and quick throw from the third-year passer. The Dolphins face another third down, this time a 3rd and 6 at the Lions’ 29-yard line. They line up with Waddle as the inside trips receiver on the left, with Hill in the slot and Trent Sherfield to the outside:

This is a tricky pre-snap picture to sort out. Detroit shows Tagovailoa two deep safeties, and with the rest of the coverage players showing him man technique — hips parallel to the line of scrimmage, eyes on the receivers — Tagovailoa could anticipate Cover 2 Man on this play.

But the presence of safety Kerby Joseph over Waddle, “capping” the cornerback aligned across from the receiver, is a sign that perhaps the Lions are going to blitz that cornerback, and ask Joseph to cover Waddle in man coverage.

What happens instead? The Lions are trying to bracket Hill off the line with Joseph, and as the play begins, that safety drops down to wall off Hill on the inside, while cornerback Jeff Okudah covers him with outside leverage. Tagovailoa sees that, and knows that Waddle’s route, a slot fade, is the play:

This is a great read from Tagovailoa, as he adjusts to a different post-snap look than the one he likely anticipated, and punishes the defense. He knows that the other safety, JuJu Hughes, has a lot of ground to cover to help on Waddle’s slot fade, and quickly snaps his eyes to Waddle and drops in a perfect throw for the touchdown.

In a similar vein is this play from later in the second quarter, with the Dolphins facing another 3rd and 6. Again, you see the Lions showing pressure before the snap, with a pair of safeties deep:

However, this time the Lions drop into zone coverage. Watch as Tagovailoa reads the coverage rotation and throws Waddle open, making an anticipation throw around linebacker Alex Anzalone, dropping into underneath zone coverage:

Miami would finish the drive with a field goal, cutting Detroit’s lead to 24-17 with just over two minutes left in the first half.

Miami would finally take the lead at the end of the third quarter, on this completion from Tagovailoa to Mike Gesicki for an 11-yard touchdown:

I love both the design of this play and the execution from Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have Sherfield as the single receiver on the right side of the field, and motion running back Raheem Mostert to the left side right before the play, giving them four receiving threats to that side of the field with Sherfield alone on the right. One of those threats is Waddle, as the receiver aligns in the backfield along with the quarterback, and he will run a vertical route. Miami is hoping to get him matched up with a linebacker if the Lions are in man coverage.

Tagovailoa’s eyes come to Sherfield right at the snap, as the receiver runs a slant route. That draws the attention of both Hughes, aligned underneath, and Joseph, the deeper safety in the middle of the field. Both defenders step towards Sherfield’s slant route, making that throw a tougher proposition for Tagovailoa. What does he do in response? He flips his eyes to the left side of the field, and Gesicki’s out route. Tagovailoa’s glance towards Sherfield has created a window between the safety and the cornerback, and the quarterback exploits that by hitting Gesicki between those defenders for the go-ahead score.

There is still the issue of under-thrown deep balls, which as many have pointed out can be due to his footwork on those throws, but what truly stands out with Tagovailoa each week is how he is improving with his mind. He is making quick reads and smart decisions with the football, even when the post-snap picture does not align with his pre-snap expectations.

When you are doing that as a quarterback, you are doing your job, and doing it well.