Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images
If past is prologue, Goff might be in for a big year thanks to Detroit’s schedule
One of the biggest pieces of NFL offseason news to break in the past few weeks? The news of Jared Goff’s big-money contract extension with the Detroit Lions. Fresh off helping Detroit advance to the NFC Championship Game Goff got PAID, putting pen to paper Thursday on a new four-year, $212 million extension with $170 million guaranteed. The contract will keep Goff in Detroit through 2027, and has an option for the 2028 season.
And, thanks to the NFL schedule makers, Goff might live up to that deal in 2024.
On the contract, the new deal for Goff has the potential to dramatically shape the quarterback landscape. As we have seen over the years, every new quarterback contract reshapes the market at the position, and Goff’s deal is no exception. As our own J.P. Acosta wrote earlier this week: “No team wants to be the last to give their QB the extension that breaks the game, but every new QB deal is more than likely going to warrant a big market reset.”
So while Goff is certainly happy with this news, he is not alone. Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and their representatives are likely giddy with the Goff news.
But can he live up to that contract?
Thanks to the NFL schedule makers, he has a fantastic shot to do just that, at least this season.
First, let’s start with some statistics from last season, specifically Goff’s indoor/outdoor splits from 2023, courtesy of ESPN:
Goff had a fantastic season a year ago, but there is a big difference between how he performed indoors, and how he performed outdoors. Goff played 11 games in a dome, with one more at AT&T Stadium. In those 12 games the Lions posted a 9-3 record, and Goff posted those above numbers, including a 23/8 TD/INT ratio, and an NFL Passer Rating of 104.
But in the five games Goff played outdoors the Lions posted a 3-2 record, and Goff finished with a 7/4 TD/INT ratio and an NFL Passer Rating of just 87.9.
In fact, since joining the Lions Goff’s indoor/outdoor splits have been striking. When playing outdoors for Detroit Goff has posted a completion percentage of 63.7%, throwing for 3,929 yards and 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, for an NFL Passer Rating of 88.6.
In his indoor games, Goff has a completion percentage of 68.1% while throwing for 8,061 yards and 60 touchdowns, against 18 interceptions. That works out to an NFL Passer Rating of 101.43.
Now let’s take a look at Detroit’s schedule:
Goff and the Lions do not play outdoors until Week 9, when they visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Then they have just two remaining outdoor games, one at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears in Week 16, and the other at Levi’s Stadium the following week against the San Francisco 49ers.
Other than that, every single game Goff has is either at home in the friendly confines of Ford Field, or on the road in another indoor stadium.
Given his splits, Goff might very well live up to his new deal, at least this year.
And if you are heading into a fantasy draft anytime soon, you might want to keep these splits — and Detroit’s schedule — in mind.
