Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Rookie punt returner Marcus Jones shocks the Jets with a punt return touchdown in the closing seconds
It looked like overtime was in the future.
But then rookie punt returner Marcus Jones sent everyone home happy.
After almost sixty minutes of putrid offensive play — or stellar defensive play depending on your point of view — the New England Patriots rookie stunned the New York Jets, and the NFL world, with an 83-yard punt return for a touchdown. The return broke a 3-3 tie, and gave the Patriots a 10-3 lead with just five second remaining.
Perhaps the most critical aspect of the play? The wind. On a gusty and blustery afternoon at Gillette Stadium, the Jets were forced to punt into the wind on the game’s biggest play. The punt was a line drive off the foot of Braden Mann, giving Jones a chance at a big return.
He delivered:
As you can see from this image, when Jones pulls in the punt, he had plenty of room to work with, and he made the most of the opportunity:
Jones picked up two critical blocks on the play, first from reserve safety Brenden Schooler (#41) and then from backup wide receiver Raleigh Webb (#44), and the returner cut upfield behind those two blocks and into open field. From there he had just the punter to beat, and with the game on the line, Jones was not to be denied.
Touchdown, New England. Bedlam in Foxborough.
The NFL shared this incredible field-level view of the return:
But for almost sixty minutes, it seemed like a touchdown — of any kind — was an impossible ask on this day.
In the 1994 comedy “PCU,” there is a scene where the character Gutter, portrayed by Jon Favreau, has a drug-fueled vision of his future, where he is testifying before Congress in a confirmation hearing. In the vision, Gutter testifies “I knew it was going to be bad. I did not know it would be this bad.”
It was hard not to think of that scene while watching Sunday’s game between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.
We knew it was going to be a defensive struggle well before kickoff. After all, these are two of the elite pass defenses in the league, with the ability to pressure the passer consistently, facing off with two young quarterbacks who have crumpled in the face of pressure this season.
Add in some blustery conditions, and you have the recipe for a tough day for the offenses.
Somehow it was worse.
The two AFC East rivals combined for what was a near-historic display of offensive ineptitude. In the first half, the two teams combined for six points, and six punts, as neither offense could get anything going on that side of the football.
New England had a chance to take a 6-3 lead before halftime, but Nick Folk’s 44-yard field goal got caught in the wind and careened off the crossbar, keeping the score tied at three.
The Patriots put together a decent driver to open the second half, but once more the drive stalled, and Bill Belichick sent his kicker out to try another field goal, this time from 43-yards out. The kick, sent in the same direction as his earlier miss, was wide to the left, and the score remained tied.
While the Patriots offense was struggling, their counterparts were even worse. Quarterback Zach Wilson could not get anything going in the passing game, and he finished the afternoon having completed fewer passes (nine) than Mann had punts (ten).
A big reason for his struggles? A relentless pass rush from the Patriots. New England got to Wilson for four sacks on the afternoon, with Matthew Judon accounting for 1.5 of those. Judon got to Wilson on the first play of the fourth quarter, setting a new career-high with 13.5 sacks on the season.
And forcing another Jets punt:
In the second half, the Jets had seven offensive possessions. They would go three-and-out on the first five of those and gain just three total yards on their sixth offensive possession of the second half, as it was Deatrich Wise’s turn to get to Wilson for a third-down sack:
The sack came after the Jets had managed to pick up their first first down of the second half.
New York’s final offensive possession of the game? Well, that ended with a punt.
One that Jones returned for the game-winning touchdown.
How pivotal was Jones’ return. On the micro level, it caused the biggest swing in win probability on a punt return in the Next Gen Stats Era:
But consider the macro level. This game was almost a playoff game, particularly for New England. According to FiveThirtyEight, prior to kickoff, the Patriots had a 39% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds would jump to 53% with a win over the Jets, while a loss to New York would see their chances at the playoffs drop to 18%.
Conversely, the Jets entered Week 11 with a 59% chance of qualifying for the postseason. Beat the Patriots, and those odds skyrocket to 83%, and their odds of winning the division increase from 10%, to 18%.
With the loss, however, the Jets’ playoff odds dropped to 44%.
More than anything else, the loss might touch off renewed debate over Wilson in New York. Because lost in this game might be the performance from the Jets’ defense, which sacked Mac Jones six times and held the Patriots’ rushing attack to under 100 yards. When you put up those kinds of defensive numbers, hold the opposing offense to just three points, force them to punt seven times, and even get a fourth-down stop, you tend to win the football game.
But that is not what happened today.
Instead, the Patriots earned their 14th-straight win over their division rivals, and put a dent in their playoff hopes.
And likely sparked another debate about the quarterback position in the Big Apple.
