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This idea isn’t as wild as you think.
The QB carousel we thought the offseason would provide hasn’t fully manifested yet. Aaron Rodgers is still with the Packers, Lamar Jackson remains in limbo. Outside of Derek Carr joining the Saints and Jimmy Garoppolo heading to Las Vegas it’s been rather quiet — but now rumors are swirling about a QB who wasn’t on the radar: Kirk Cousins.
On the surface Cousins moving is wholly bizarre. The Vikings were one of the best teams in the NFC a year ago, and their window is wide open in the NFC North to try to run this back. However, with new leadership in Minnesota finding its footing, this might be the perfect time to take advantage of a weird QB market to set the Vikings up for sustained success, rather than a short sprint.
What are the rumors right now?
Publicly everything the Vikings are saying is peachy when it comes to Cousins. Co-owner Mark Wilf has called him “the leader on the offense,” while head coach Kevin O’Connell has mentioned “excitement” when it comes to Cousins’ second year in his system.
The undercurrent is a little different. Last week there were credible rumors that the 49ers and Vikings discussed a potential trade at the combine — presumably one that would have brought Trey Lance to Minnesota.
This has opened up the floodgates on speculation that Minnesota might deal Cousins if the right deal presented itself, and that might be easier to find than one might think.
Who could be interested in Cousins?
So let’s start with the 49ers, because that’s where these rumors began. At this point everyone knows what Cousins is. He is never going to be the guy who can put a team on his back and drag it to a championship like Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, but he’s still a plus-level starter who can succeed inside a system.
The 49ers unquestionably have the best defense in the NFL. They have offensive weapons to get the job done. They even have a potential QB waiting in the wings, depending on how much you believe in Brock Purdy. Cousins slots in perfectly here and could legitimately be the positional upgrade needed to win a championship in San Francisco. It allows for Purdy to recover and develop for a year or two, then turn the reins back over to him.
Trey Lance is the wildcard here, and on paper provides a lot of interest for Minnesota. Sure, he hasn’t done a lot on the field to show he’s a starting-caliber talent, let alone justify the No. 3 pick he was taken with in 2021 — but this could be a huge boon for the Vikings. Not only does the team land a young, developmental QB to mold inside the team’s new system, but getting a beloved North Dakota State player is the kind of PR move that help ameliorate any bad feelings from trading away Cousins and taking a step back.
The question is: Is Trey Lance still a better prospect than anyone the Vikings could take at No. 23 this year? Yes, absolutely. That’s cause to give this potential scenario some legs.
Meanwhile the Jets are a team who shouldn’t be slept on. New York pushed all their chips to the middle in this gambit for Aaron Rodgers, and right now things aren’t going well. The sides can’t agree on compensation, with the Packers knowing they’re in the power position right now. It’s resulted in the Jets missing out on any potential free agent QB, and building an entire roster to win now, without the passer to show for it.
Settling for Cousins after being all-in on Rodgers is settling to the highest degree. Still, it might be the best the Jets have to hope for if a trade with Green Bay goes belly up. Whether its future draft assets, or a wild deal involving Zach Wilson, there is a chance here for the Vikings to ask for substantially less than Green Bay might put the Jets through the ringer for, but still set themselves up better for the future.
What could the future of the Vikings’ QB position be?
This is a really interesting discussion which exists independently of what happens with Kirk Cousins. As it stands Minnesota is locked in draft limbo. The team isn’t good enough to contend for a championship, or bad enough to draft in the Top 10 and find a top-tier quarterback.
This has led to speculation they could target someone like Hendon Hooker in the draft, which is a hell of a leap of faith considering the offense Hendon ran at Tennessee — paired with the fact he’s coming off an ACL injury.
Getting an extra pick(s) from either San Francisco or New York could give the Vikings the firepower to move up in the draft without risking their entire future. The Jets would not give the Vikings the No. 13 pick for Cousins, but back-to-back 2nd round picks, paired with future assets could give the Vikings the ability to move up into the Top 10 to potentially target someone like Will Levis, who seems like the most likely QB to fall out of the Top 5.
Meanwhile the 49ers have substantially less draft capital, but the aforementioned Lance is a much more intriguing trade piece that’s attainable, potentially with more picks thrown in to round out the deal.
If Minnesota sat at No. 23 with some more draft capital it would justify rolling the dice on someone like Hooker a lot more than selecting him with Cousins still on the roster, and hoping to fill the team’s other needs elsewhere.
What are the odds Cousins is traded?
This still feels very much like an outside chance and entirely dependent on the desperation of other teams. Much of this is based on how discussions with other QBs are progressing, and whether the 49ers are really sold they can win a championship right now if they had Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Meanwhile it presumes the Jets are freaking out about losing Rodgers to the point where they’d make a desperation trade to stop the bleeding — especially after so many Jets players gleefully threw Zach Wilson in the trash publicly by being excited at the prospect of Rodgers. The damage is done there, and it’s unclear if it can ever be corrected.
I’ll put the odds of a deal at a conservative 15 percent right now. It wouldn’t shock me to see this happen, and honestly, taking advantage of a dicey QB market could be Minnesota’s ticket to finding sustained success. I don’t believe this team can win a title as constructed, and setting themselves up for the future could be one of the best possible moves the Vikings could make. Now we wait to see what will transpire.
