Men’s Olympic basketball teams at 2024 Paris games, ranked by gold medal chances

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Let’s rank every men’s basketball team at the 2024 Paris Olympics by their gold medal chances.

USA Basketball can no longer claim to be the single dominant international force it once was in the men’s division. Poor showings at the last two FIBA World Cup competitions — a seventh place finish in 2019 and a fourth place finish in 2023 — showed cracks in the armor. The end of Team USA’s 25-game Olympic winning streak to France at the 2021 Tokyo games proved that even the program’s best rosters can be beaten. There’s no doubt the rest of the globe is catching up. With the arrival of the 2024 Paris Olympics, Team USA is out to prove it still runs the world.

The Americans called in their biggest stars for Paris, with LeBron James returning to the team after an eight-year hiatus at age-39, and Stephen Curry signing on for the first time in his career. USA Basketball did well to put together its best possible roster, but with so many NBA superstars playing for other countries, another gold medal is far from assured.

Nikola Jokic leads Serbia. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray power a talented Canadian team. Giannis Antetokounmpo stars for Greece. Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert carry the host country dreams for France. This is the most talented men’s Olympic tournament ever, and anything can happen in a single-elimination format in the knockout rounds. Before the 2024 Paris Olympics begin, let’s rank every team in the field by their gold medal chances.

12. South Sudan

South Sudan is in the Olympics for the first time ever with a roster put together by former Chicago Bulls All-Star forward Luol Deng. There’s some legitimate NBA talent here: JT Thor, Wenyen Gabriel, and Carlik Jones each have experience at the highest level. There’s are also some former college stars on the roster, including Iowa’s Peter Jok, Louisville’s Deng Adel, and Virginia’s Marial Shayok. The real player to watch here is Duke incoming freshman Khaman Maluach, a mobile 7-footer with a chance to be a top-5 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. South Sudan may be last on this list, but they have enough length and ball handling to be competitive.

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11. Japan

Los Angeles Lakers forward Rui Hachimura is the headline star for Japan, and it will be fascinating to see how he performs in a high-usage role as the first name on the opposing scouting report. Hachimura will have some shooters around him: Yuta Watanabe cashed 37 percent of his three-pointers in 213 NBA games, while former Nebraska star Keisei Tominaga (currently on a try-out deal with the Indiana Pacers) has so much range he earned the nickname “the Japanese Stephen Curry” in college. France and Germany will be expected to come out of Group B, but Japan would be happy to play the spoiler with a couple hot shooting nights.

10. Brazil

This isn’t the strongest Brazil roster compared to what its sent to the Olympics in the past, but there are a few familiar names to NBA fans. Bruno Caboclo is no longer “two years away from being two years away” — he’s a 28-year-old ready to play a starring role for his home country. Raul Neto will add a steady veteran ball handler who can create his own offense, while Golden State Warriors forward Gui Santos adds some length and strength on the wing. Former Pelicans draft pick Didi Louzada and former Bulls center Cristiano Felicio should round out Brazil’s five-best group. Brazil and Japan face a steep climb to advance out of Group B, but their matchup will be a blast to watch.

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9. Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is back in the Olympics after a thrilling win over Domantas Sabonis and Lithuania in the qualifying tournament. The strength of the team is the backcourt of Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado, former NBA guard Tremont Waters, and former Marquette star Jordan Howard. Alvarado will have his plate full as the team’s best scorer, best defender, and emotional leader, but the 6-foot guard appears up for the challenge. Puerto Rico has some legit size in the middle with former Iowa State center George Conditt IV, while former San Diego college star Isaiah Piñeiro adds some might on the wing. This feels like Alvarado against the world with the U.S. and Nikola Jokic looming in Group C, but he won’t go down without a fight.

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8. Greece

Greece beat Croatia in the qualifying tournament to punch its first men’s Olympic basketball berth since 2008. Everything runs through Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a chance to be the best player in the tournament if he’s in peak form. There is some talent around Giannis: former Kings lottery pick Georgios Papagiannis is a massive 7-footer in the middle, while Nick Calathes and Thomas Walkup man the perimeter as former college stars. There’s only one problem for Greece: they’re in the Group of Death with Spain, Australia, and Canada all included in Group A. Antetokounmpo is going to have to be amazing just advance to the knockout rounds.

7. Australia

Australia basketball has been steadily on the rise over the last decade, and it earned its first Olympic men’s medal ever in the Tokyo games behind a superstar performance from Patty Mills. Mills is back again as team captain just ahead of his 36th birthday, and he’s surrounded by a veteran team with plenty of NBA talent. Joe Ingles and Matthew Dellavedova are fellow elder statesmen who will provide shooting and defensive toughness. Dante Exum and Josh Green add speed and driving on the perimeter, while big men Jock Landale and Duop Reath clean up inside. Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels might be the two most exciting prospects to track here as former NBA top-10 picks still early in their careers. Giddey will have the ball in his hands a lot as a lead guard, and will need to have a strong performance if the Boomers want to get out of Group A alongside Spain, Greece, and Canada.

6. Spain

Spain has been a powerhouse in men’s basketball for nearly 20 years and is currently No. 2 in the world rankings, but there isn’t as much star-power here as there typically is. The Hernangomez brothers have replaced the Gasol brothers as a new twin towers inside, and Memphis Grizzlies forward Santi Aldama could be poised to become the team’s new leading man. There are still some familiar faces here — Rudy Fernandez is still playing at 39 years old! — but this mostly feels like a team in a transition phase. Only two teams are getting out of Group A with Canada, Australia, and Greece ready to knock out Spain, making this feel like the biggest test of Spanish basketball’s supremacy yet.

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5. France

Victor Wembanyama’s Olympic debut in front of a hometown crowd in Paris will be one of the tournament’s biggest storylines. The 20-year-old was one of the most hyped rookies in NBA history last season, and somehow exceeded expectations. Now he’s joining loaded roster coming off a silver medal in Tokyo. Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert form a monster front line with unprecedented length and rim protection. Nic Batum is back for one more run at the Olympics as a versatile forward, and Evan Fournier will add shooting on the wings. The big question here is the guard play. Can a team medal at the Olympics playing almost exclusively through their big men? France will try.

4. Germany

Germany is fresh off a stunning gold medal run in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, and now it’s ready to earn its first Olympic medal ever in men’s basketball. Brothers and Orlando Magic teammates Franz and Moritz Wagner are Germany’s biggest stars, with Franz as an oversized ball handler and Mo doing the dirty work inside. Dennis Schröder adds a super fast ball handler on the perimeter whose game might work better in FIBA play. Don’t sleep on Andreas Obst either as a critical floor spacer and outside shooter. The Germany-France game in Group B should be electric.

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3. Serbia

The best player in the world plays for Serbia. Nikola Jokic is competing for his home country at the Olympics for the first time since 2016, and this time around he’s at the peak of his powers. Serbia proved its an excellent team even without Jokic by earning a silver medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, and it can realistically dream about Olympic gold with Joker in the lineup. Bogdan Bogdanović is the only other major NBA contributor on the roster, and he’s arguably the second-best shooter in the field behind Stephen Curry. Serbia doesn’t have the same volume of NBA players as other gold medal contenders, but it’s a team that knows how to play together. With Jokic in the middle, Serbia can get a good look on nearly every possession. If you’re looking for a sleeper who could end up on top of the podium, this is it.

2. Canada

This is the moment Canadian men’s basketball has been waiting for. After earning its first medal in a major international competition with a bronze in the 2023 World Cup, Canada joins the Olympic stage with its best roster ever. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a true superstar at the controls for Canada, and has a case as the best guard in the field. Jamal Murray joins SGA for a star-studded backcourt as a dangerous three-level scorer who can takeover a game when he has to. Canada has tough, defensive-minded wings in Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort, and some versatile bigs with Kelly Olynyk and Trey Lyles. With 11 NBA players on the roster, Canada has the type of depth and star-power that only the U.S. can match. Just making it out of Group A will be an accomplishment, but Canada can realistically dream much bigger than that.

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1. United States

It’s gold medal or bust for the United States at every Olympics, and there are truly no excuses this time around. USA Basketball got every commitment it wanted to send its best possible team to Paris. The names on the roster read like a list of all-time great players: LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant are top-20 players in NBA history who still perform at an incredibly high level late in their careers. Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo form a dream big man room for Team USA. Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards are the future of the program, while Jrue Holiday and Tyrese Haliburton can expertly fill their role. For as good as this American team is, it’s important to remember there are no best-of-7 series in the Olympics — one bad night, and you’re out in the knockout rounds. Can the U.S. stay on top of the podium? With gold medals in seven of the last eight summer Olympics and one of its strongest rosters ever on hand, Team USA is the obvious favorite heading into the tournament. It just won’t be easy with the rest of world doing their best to dethrone the Americans.