Looking at how the top three stack up, along with the rest of the first round
The 2023 MLB Draft is just days away.
And the Pittsburgh Pirates have a fascinating decision on their hands.
Do they add Paul Skenes, the LSU pitcher who was dominant this season and looks like he could step into an MLB rotation right now? Or do they draft his teammate Dylan Crews, the outfielder who brings five tools to the table as a prospect?
Then there is a player they beat in the Men’s College World Series Finals in Florida’s Wyatt Langford, who has his own case as the top player in the class.
The three collegiate prospects are generally considered the top of the class, but there are two prep prospects lurking as well, Max Clark from Franklin, Indiana and Walker Jenkins from South Brunswick, North Carolina. While the three college prospects have generated the most buzz, either Clark or Franklin going ahead of them would not be a surprise on Sunday.
Here is a look at how the 2023 MLB Draft first round could shake out this weekend.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
In a way, I do not envy Pirates general manager Ben Cherington.
Because how do you decide between Crews and Skenes?
On one hand you have the proverbial five-tool player in Crews, who has the ability to hit for power to all fields, the ability to hit for average, and the speed to make a difference on the bases and in the outfield.
Then you have Skenes, who looks like he could step into an MLB rotation tomorrow.
So in a sense, it seems like Cherington cannot go wrong, but it remains a tough call. Skenes is enticing, but Crews is as well. And it is the outfielder’s potential to be an impact player early, and every day, that makes him the pick.
2. Washington Nationals: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
Skenes is one heck of a consolation prize.
If you watched him this year, or in particular during the Men’s College World Series, you saw why analysts and scouts alike think Skenes could step into an MLB rotation right now. I was fascinated when the ESPN crew had Roger Clemens on during the LSU-Wake Forest game, and Clemens talked about Skenes’ mechanics as well as how he would handle Skenes this fall, making sure he made a few starts at different levels before calling him up.
Still, with a glaring need to add to their pitching staff, Skenes is a perfect selection for Washington.
3. Detroit Tigers: Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
In almost any other year, Langford might be the first player picked. Frankly he still might be. Like Crews he has five-tool potential at the MLB level, and showed his power during the MCWS, blasting the two longest home runs in the history of Charles Schwab Field. He spent time in the infield and behind the plate in high school, and while he patrolled left field for the Gators, he has the speed and range to play in center field as well.
4. Texas Rangers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin (IN)
After the collegiate top-three prospects, the consensus “next two” are a pair of high school outfielders Max Clark from Indiana, and Walker Jenkins from North Carolina.
Clark, the Gatorade Player of the Year, has even been in the mix for the top-overall selection and if the Pirates want to take a big swing on potential, he could be the selection. The outfielder has a number of plus traits, and while he projects best to be an outfielder at the next level, when he took the mound in high school he could dial his fastball up into the upper-90s.
5. Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick (NC)
If the draft ends up this way, the Twins likely take the other high school outfielder in Jenkins. Jenkins is more of a power hitter than Clark, who projects more as a line driver hitter but has shown some pop recently.
While center field is his spot at the moment, Jenkins’ best fit in the bigs might be as a power-hitting corner outfielder.
6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
Wilson is a pure hitter, who posted a slash line of 412/.461/.635 for Grand Canyon this season, is the son of Jack Wilson, who was a former MLB shortstop and won the Silver Slugger Award during the 2004 season.
Feel old right now? I sure do.
Wilson might face a move to third base at the next level, as there are questions about his range at shortstop, and he played there are a freshman at GCU. But there are no questions about his ability as a hitter. He even added a bit more pop over his collegiate career, belting 12 home runs in 2022.
7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images
While Skenes dominated the headlines coming out of the epic LSU-Wake Forest tilt at the Men’s College World Series, Lowder matched him nearly pitch-for-pitch in that game. He went 15-0 this season for the Demon Deacons, and typically lives in the mid-90s with his fastball, with the ability to dial it up in the upper 90s at times. That fastball has some sink to it, allowing him to induce his fair share of ground balls. Add to that one of college baseball’s best change-ups, and you have the makings of a plus starter at the next level.
8. Kansas City Royals: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest (FL)
Nimmala is one of the more fascinating stories in this draft class. Nimmala grew up with a bat in his hand, but a cricket bat at that. During family trips from Florida to India each summer, cricket became a frequent pastime for him growing up.
But Nimmala gave up cricket, as well as basketball and soccer, to focus on baseball when he entered high school. And he might be glad he did. He can hit with power and to all fields, and shows the range to stick at shortstop in the next level.
9. Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Chase Dollander began the 2023 season as the top collegiate pitching prospect, but his slide to third here speaks more about Skenes and Lowder than it does Dollander. The Tennessee right-hander has a number of strong pitches, beginning with a fastball that is consistently in the mid-90s and can top out around 99.
His next-best pitch is a slider that has some good movement to it, followed by a curve and a change that he could turn to at times to get swings and misses. He was also the SEC Pitcher of the Year in 2022, so he has performed at a high level against elite competition.
10. Miami Marlins: Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
The top catcher in college baseball a season ago, Teel checks a number of defensive boxes behind the plate, starting with catching 15 of 24 base stealers in 2023, while posting pop times around 1.90 seconds.
Offensively, he entered the 2023 collegiate season facing questions about what he can do at the plate. His slash line of .276/.402/.439 for Virginia in 2022, followed by a difficult season at the dish in the Cape Cod League last summer — where he posted a batting average of just .125 — led to those concerns. But he answered them in a big way for Virginia this spring, batting .407 and belting a career-best 13 HRs.
11. Los Angeles Angels: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit (OR)
Noble Meyer is considered by-and-large to be the top prep arm in the class, with the frame to add even more consistency and power to his fastball. Right now he can dial it up to triple digits on occasion, and follows that two-seamer with a decent slider.
He also added a curve to the arsenal, and at the National High School Invitational Meyer put his arm on display. “He also threw 16 of the 20 hardest fastballs in the tournament, ranging from 95 mph up to 96.5. He also lit up Trackman with the spin rate on both his slider and newer curve, topping 3,000 rpm with 26 of his breaking pitches,” noted MLB.com in this recap of the NHSI.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell (FL)
Miller has committed to Arkansas, but his bat and power might see him head to the minors out of high school. While he has dealt with injuries this year, his ability to hit for power is going to entice MLB clubs.
What else will entice MLB clubs? What he did just over a year ago. Miller was the MVP of the All-American Game ahead of the 2022 MLB All-Star game, thanks to a 4-for-5 effort at the dish. He followed that up by taking home top honors in the High School Home Run Derby. That power is going to see him come off the board early this year.
13. Chicago Cubs: Colin Houck, SS, Parkview (GA)
Houck’s hitting and pop might see him move to third base in the future, but those two plus traits are more than good enough to see him come off the board in the top half of the first round. While he has committed to Mississippi State to play baseball — having spurned Power 5 programs such as Arkansas and Georgia Tech to play quarterback — sliding in the top-15 of the draft likely sees him heading to the minors this fall.
14. Boston Red Sox: Tommy Troy, IF, Stanford
Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Tommy Troy has been a consistent player at Stanford for the past three seasons, putting up impressive numbers for the Cardinal since day one. This past year for Stanford, Troy slashed .394/.478/.699, while belting a career-high 17 home runs.
He has a number of things working in his favor. First is his consistency at the plate. Troy had just 42 strikeouts in 249 plate appearances this past season at Stanford. Second is his positional versatility. Troy has played at shortstop — most notably on the Cape, more on that in the second — and third for Stanford, and some scouts believe he could stick at second or even in center field at the next level.
Finally is what he has done in his time in the Cape Cod League. Troy made his debut in the CCL back in the summer of 2021, hitting .299 with four home runs. Then in the summer of 2022, Troy slashed .310/.386/.531 in the CCL, cementing himself as one of the top prospects in the league.
15. Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi
Gonzalez burst onto the national scene in 2021, as he was named the National Freshman of the Year following his first year at Mississippi. He posted a slash line of .355/.443/.561 as a freshman, belting 12 home runs.
The following year, Gonzalez was an integral part of the Mississippi team that won the MCWS. He launched a solo shot to give Mississippi an early 1-0 lead in Game 2 of the Finals against Oklahoma, and his clutch RBI single later in the game tied it at 2. Mississippi went on to take Game 2, and the series, 4-2.
He projects as a solid contact hitter at the next level, and his feel for the position may see him stick at shortstop, although a switch to third or second could also be in the cards.
16. San Francisco Giants: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
When you draw comparisons to Kenny Lofton, you are likely headed for the top of the first round. Bradfield could have been a first-round selection in recent years, but was committed to playing at Vanderbilt.
He made the most of his time on campus, leading the NCAA with 47 steals en route to being named SEC Freshman of the Year in 2021. He snagged another 46 bags in 2022 — on 46 attempts — and swiped 37 more this spring.
Speed is his calling card, and it shows not just on the bases but in the outfield. But he does have a little pop, as he homered eight times in 2022 and another six times this past spring.
17. Baltimore Orioles: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
It was not the best time in Omaha for Wilken, who went just 2-for-14 with 2 RBI at the Men’s College World Series. But we are talking about a corner infielder who tied the ACC career home run record this year, as the 31 he hit this season saw him finish his college career with 71 to his credit.
Wilken also posted a slash line of .345/.506/.807 this season while belting those 31 home runs.
Adding him to the young core in Baltimore would be a great addition for the Orioles.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Waldrep began his collegiate career at Southern Miss, starting out in the bullpen before joining the rotation in 2022. That season he helped Southern Miss reach the Super Regionals, and went 6-2 on the year with a 3.20 ERA and a 14.0 K/9 rate.
Waldrep entered the transfer portal, and signed with the Gators. He helped Florida reach the Men’s College World Series Finals against LSU, and went 6.0 innings in a win over Oral Roberts with 12 strikeouts.
Waldrep brings three strong pitches to the table, starting with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball along with a split-change, and a slider. He has struggled with location at times — his BB/9 rate ticked up to 5.0 from 3.3 this season, and you saw that in his last appearance, where he walked six in just 2.1 innings against LSU — but when he is on, he is tough to hit.
19. Tampa Bay Rays: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison (VA)
Eldridge might be the most enticing prospect in the entire class. A legitimate two-way option, the Alabama recruit could see his future at 1B, on the bump, or given current trends, maybe at both spots.
On the hill, Eldridge looks imposing with his 6-foot-7 frame, and has a plus fastball along with a solid slider that sticks in the lower 80s. He is working on a change-up as well, and if he adds that to his arsenal that would give him three solid pitches to work with.
At the plate, Eldridge’s strength is his power, and he generates his power with a relatively compact swing, although that swing can get long when he sees pitches he likes. He also shows some good patience at the dish.
He could come off the board well before this spot, but if he is available, the Rays might leap at the chance.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA)
The top left-handed pitcher in the class, Thomas White could come off the board before the Blue Jays are on the clock, but this would be a “run to the podium” situation if the class falls this way. He has a fastball that clocks in around the mid-90s with some rise to it, which has led to some swing-and-miss strikeouts up in the zone.
He also brings a good curveball to the table, as well as a developing change-up that, once he hones in, could give him three plus-plus pitches at the next level.
White, who is committed to Vanderbilt, is looking to make a little MLB draft history. If taken in the first round, he would be the first LHP from Massachusetts drafted in the first round in the history of the MLB draft.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
Morales, whose father is former Cuban National Team member Andy Morales, who spent time with both the Yankees and the Red Sox, went undrafted in the 2020 draft. While that was largely due to his commitment to Miami, that looks to change in a few days.
Power is his strongest trait, as he consistently gets the barrel to the ball and can hit for power to all fields. He stepped into Miami’s lineup as a freshman and never looked back, hitting 11 HRs as a freshman and then 18 as a sophomore. He also started all seven games for the 2022 Team USA Collegiate National Team, batting .400 with eight hits, four RBI and a home run.
22. Seattle Mariners: Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Taylor is a solid all-around prospect, who played a big role in getting TCU to the Men’s College World Series. He posted a .308..430/.631 slash line for the Horned Frogs this year, complete with 23 home runs.
While in Omaha he struggled a bit, going 4-for-18 at the plate, but did go 2-for-5 in TCU’s final game, a 3-2 loss to Florida. He takes a patient approach at the plate, and that certainly paid off for him this year, as his 23 home runs set a new school record. He also leaves campus as the school’s all-time HR leader with 48.
23. Cleveland Guardians: Nolan Schanuel, 1B, FAU
Come this weekend, there is every reason to believe that Nolan Schanuel will become the highest-drafted player out of FAU in MLB draft history.
After a stellar high school career, Schanuel stayed close to home to play at FAU. He was a starter from day one, putting up a .357/.462/.619 in his first two years on campus. His strength is his bat, and while he struggled a bit in the Cape Cod League — batting just .200 with a single dinger — he rebounded for another solid year for the Owls at the plate.
He has primarily played first base, but a switch to a corner outfield position could be in his future. Still, it is what he does with the stick that will see him come off the board in the first round.
24. Atlanta Braves: Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK
Shaw is one of the most consistent hitters in the 2022 class, and he showed that as a freshman for the Terrapins, stepping on campus and batting .332 his first year in College Park. He was a standout last summer in the Cape Cod League, posting a slash line of .360/.432/.574 and earning CCL MVP Honors.
In his final college season Shaw had his best year yet, slashing .341/.445/.697 along with a career-high 24 home runs. With some of those home runs going the other way, Shaw has demonstrated true power to all fields.
He has played all over the field for the Terrapins, and while the bulk of his experience is as shortstop Maryland inserted in him the lineup at third, second, and even in the outfield. Concerns over his arm could see him slide to second in the majors, but it will be his bat that gets him drafted in the first round.
25. San Diego Padres: Kevin McGonigle, IF, Monsignor Bonner (PA)
A standout for Monsignor Bonner/Archbishop Prendergast Catholic High School just outside of Philadelphia, McGonigle is another complete hitter in this draft class. He batted .530 in his final high school season, and leaves Monsignor Bonner behind with a career slash line of .498/.638/1.014.
He was also part of the Team USA 18U team that won a gold medal, where he batted .240 with a home run and eight RBI over nine games.
While he spent the bulk of his time at Monsignor Bonner at shortstop, a move to second may be in his future. Power might not be his strong suit at the next level, but his scrappy base-running skills and ability to find gaps with his bat — much like his idol Chase Utley — will serve him well in the bigs.
26. New York Yankees: Sammy Stafura, SS, Panas High School (NY)
If you take a spin around the internet, one of the most common pairings in MLB mock drafts is this one, sending local hero Sammy Stafura to the Yankees.
And with good reason.
The Gatorade New York Baseball Player of the Year put up big numbers for Panas HS this year, and according to Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report the Yankees have more than done their homework on Stafura. He has committed to Clemson, but his strong final season in high school has him moving up draft boards as July unfolds.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (TX)
MLB teams tend to shy away from high school catchers in the first round, but for a variety of reasons, Mitchell is a likely exception. He has a pair of fall-back plans if catching does not work out, as he has the bat to stick as a corner outfielder and if all else fails, he has a fastball that tops out at 97 along with a curve and a change that both show promise.
So he could even make the move to the mound.
But as a catcher, Mitchell has the defensive chops to stick, including an impressive pop time around 1.86 seconds and a plus-arm behind the plate:
So, I’ve watched this catch-and-throw from Sinton C Blake Mitchell no less than 10 times already. Haven’t clocked anything more than a 1.85 pop. From a one-knee down, no less.
The physical tools on that kid are just tremendous.
@3aSTXFan pic.twitter.com/eQRAAHDdZ0
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) May 26, 2023
Honestly, he could go much higher than the end of the first round, the only reason I could see him sliding is that hesitancy MLB teams have regarding prep catchers.
28. Houston Astros: Colt Emerson, IF, Glenn (OH)
Emerson was a big part of the 18U Team USA National Team that won a gold medal last September, starting all nine games at third base and slashing .360/.515/.520. He was also the Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year as a senior, posting a slash line of .446/.594/.1013.
He may have even been the Gatorade Football Player of the Year, but he put his wide receiver dreams aside to concentrate on baseball his senior year.
Emerson is primarily a gap-to-gap hitter but has flashed power as a pull hitter, and defensively has seen time at short and second as well as his duties at third for Team USA.
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