NBA MVP candidates, ranked for 2024 by who is most likely to win

Ranking 2024 NBA MVP candidates so far.

The NBA MVP award is a snapshot of where the league is at and where it’s headed. Giannis Antetokounmpo won MVP in 2019 and 2020 before leading his Milwaukee Bucks to the championship in 2021. Nikola Jokic won MVP in 2021 and 2022 before leading his Denver Nuggets to the championship in 2023. Postseason success is the only thing eluding Joel Embiid to this point in his career, and the 2023 MVP hopes to follow a similar pattern in the playoffs this year.

With 40 percent of the 2023-24 season in the books, this feels like a great time to check in on the MVP race. The actual NBA MVP ballot only has five spots, but the race feels so competitive to this point that we decide to rank 10 players. The biggest omission here feels like De’Aaron Fox, whose incredible play for the Sacramento Kings deserves recognition with everyone else on this list.

Here’s how we would rank the NBA MVP candidates for 2024 so far.

10. Tyrese Haliburton, G, Indiana Pacers: Haliburton is more than the quarterback of what is currently the most efficient offense in NBA history. The 23-year-old point guard is putting together one of the most efficient offensive seasons by any player of the last 20 years according to all-in-one super stat EPM. In layman’s terms, Haliburton has become a master Point God capable of controlling the game in full with his mind, and skilled enough to pick apart the defense from any area of the floor. He’s leading the NBA in assists, he’s hitting 42 percent of his threes on a high volume of attempts, and he’s been an assassin in the pick-and-roll. The Pacers have been dragged down by one of the league’s worst defenses, and Haliburton is a major contributor to that, but his offensive output is pure joy and nearly unstoppable.

9. Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics: Tatum’s MVP case rests on being the best player on arguably the best team in basketball. Tatum’s numbers are down a bit from last year, but that’s part of what being a leader on a team integrating high-usage players Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday is all about. The 25-year-old forward has the best two-point field goal percentage of his career (58 percent) thanks to improved mid-range shooting and his best rim finishing numbers since being drafted. The fact that the Celtics actually out-score teams more with Tatum on the bench rather than on the floor will continue to spark questions about whether he’s good enough to be the top option on a championship team. Individual awards shouldn’t mean much to Tatum at this point — everyone knows he’s a top-10 overall player — which puts the focus strictly on his postseason production. For Tatum, nothing that happens in this season really matters unless it ends in a ring.

8. Kevin Durant, F, Phoenix Suns: The Suns have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments so far, but it’s not Kevin Durant’s fault. The 35-year-old has been durable, productive, and insanely efficient by averaging more than 30 points per game on nearly 64 percent true shooting so far. KD currently owns the highest three-point percentage of his career at time of writing (46.7 percent) while also having the second-best assist rate of his career. The Suns are 10 points per 100 possessions better with Durant on the floor than when he sits. Durant isn’t playing with quite as much force these days in terms of getting to the rim or making plays defensively, and he should probably be shooting more threes. Still, KD remains a nuclear offensive weapon who has done his best to keep the Suns afloat while his co-stars try to get and stay healthy.

7. Kawhi Leonard, F Los Angeles Clippers: It has been ages since Leonard has been a full-time participant in an NBA regular season, but it’s actually happening so far this year. Still only 32 years old, Leonard has maintained his status as one of the best two-way players in the league with increased durability this year. He’s been scorching hot from all over the floor, shooting 71.3 percent at the rim, 49.8 percent from mid-range, 42.9 percent from three, and 87.7 percent from the foul line. Even if he’s no longer the best perimeter defender in the league, he still ranks in the 90th percentile on that side of the ball this season, per EPM. Leonard had two dominant playoff games last year before another season-ending knee injury. At this point, the only question he must answer is if he can remain available through the end of the Clippers’ season.

6. LeBron James, F, Los Angeles Lakers: It’s wild to think that LeBron is having the third-most efficient scoring season of his career at age-39. James is somehow still improving certain parts of his game in Year 21, with his three-point shooting leap — 41.3 percent from deep, the best mark of his career — enduring as the biggest example. The Lakers are 11 points better with LeBron on the floor, which is the biggest gap for any of his teams sine the 2016-17 season with Cleveland. James shouldn’t be carrying an offense every game anymore (he’s posting the second lowest usage rate of his career), but on the right night he can still be just about as good as any player in the league. We’ve never seen a 39-year-old like this before, but then again, we already knew there’s never been anyone like LeBron.

Photo by Amanda Loman/Getty Images

5. Luka Doncic, G, Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has always been a one-man offensive supernova — the difference this season is he’s playing his game more efficiently than ever before. Doncic’s 61.8 true shooting percentage is the highest of his career, and he’s doing it while controlling the ball more than any player in the NBA (as defined by time of possession). Doncic is shooting threes (38.4 percent) and free throws (78.5 percent) better than he ever has before, and he’s also posting the second-lowest turnover rate of his career. With co-star Kyrie Irving in and out of the lineup, Doncic has carried Dallas to playoff position by creating everything for a team full of gritty defenders and play finishers. The supporting cast in Dallas is improved only so much as it lets Doncic be the best version of himself: he has a lob threat in rookie center Dereck Lively II, a defensive enforcer and spot-up shooter in Grant Williams, and pogo stick finisher in Derrick Jones Jr. filling in the cracks. Meanwhile, Luka is somehow getting even more deadly with the ball in his hands, operating like a player at the total peak of his powers.

Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

4. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets

It’s a testament to Jokic’s greatness that he can be turning in another mind-melting season of scoring, playmaking, and rebounding, and it still feels like he’s slipped a bit. Jokic’s true shooting has fallen from 70 percent last year to 63 percent this year, and he’s scoring his fewest points per shot attempt since the 2019-2020 season that predates his two MVP runs. Jokic has uncharacteristically missed some shots he usually makes within 10-feet so far, but there remains so much more to his game than just scoring. He is still one of the great facilitators in the game, combining a super computer brain with deft touch with the size to see over any defender to again position himself as one of the league’s leaders in assist rate. Jokic also might be the best rebounder alive despite that part of his game rarely getting attention. The Nuggets still look like the best and most complete team in the NBA to these eyes (they were my preseason title pick) and that is largely because Jokic is still so dominant even in a slightly “down” year. At this point, Jokic wants a second championship much more than a third MVP.

Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks

It’s hard to believe that a player with two MVPs, one Defensive Player of the Year award, an NBA championship and Finals MVP, and 10 seasons under his belt is still firmly in his prime, but that’s exactly the case with Giannis Antetokounmpo. At 29 years old, Giannis is turning in one of the greatest seasons of his career. The Bucks upended so much of their foundation coming into this season by hiring Adrian Griffin as head coach and swinging a huge trade for Damian Lillard late in the summer, but Antetokounmpo’s elite two-way play has been the rock Milwaukee needed to survive the turbulence. Giannis is playing his game as well as ever: he’s shooting better than 60 percent from the field for the first time in his career, he’s scoring more points per shot attempt than he ever has before, and he’s routinely dominating fourth quarters. The only player to ever equal Giannis’ stat line so far this season is Giannis himself during his 2019 MVP run. Antetokounmpo feels like the second-best player in the world at minimum, a force of nature at both ends of the court whose ability to own the rim and handle in the open floor simply can’t be equaled. As his chemistry with Lillard in the two-man game continues to develop and Griffin gets more comfortable at pushing the right buttons, the Bucks look like championship contender they were always supposed to be.

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

2. Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers could have been on the brink of collapse with James Harden hijacking their offseason with another trade demand, but Joel Embiid has simply been too great to let it happen. The departure of Harden has ushered in the arrival of Tyrese Maxey to NBA stardom and kept the Sixers near the top of the East, but Embiid’s dominant two-way game is the foundation that made it all possible. At 7-foot, 280 pounds, Embiid is the biggest giant in a league full of them, and he is impossibly skilled for a player with this size. Only three players have averaged 35 points per game for a season since Michael Jordan did it in 1988: Kobe Bryant, James Harden, and Embiid this year. Embiid has stockpiled points in every way possible: he shoots 50 percent from mid-range, nearly 90 percent from the free throw line, and can still dominate at the rim despite multiple defenders typically draped all over him. The biggest leap in Embiid’s game this season has been his decision-making with the ball. His assist rate has jumped from 23 percent last year to 32 percent this year, punishing defenses for double-teaming him by quickly reading the floor and finding open shooters. As he puts up a league-leading usage rate for a top-3 offense, Embiid is also the anchor of a top-5 defense. It’s incredible to think Embiid is actually scoring more efficiently than Nikola Jokic this year, and he’s closed the gap enough as a facilitator to make him arguably as effective when you factor in his superior defense. Embiid has one MVP win and two second place finishes in the last three years, but this feels like the best version of him so far. The only test left is the one Embiid has never aced: staying healthy and dominant for a full playoff run. The Sixers have no time to waste with their superstar big playing at this level.

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1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the NBA on notice at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, when he emerged as the best player in the tournament and carried Canada to its first medal in a major international competition since 1936. He picked up where he left off when the new season began, putting up MVP caliber numbers while taking the Thunder from a play-in team to a true Western Conference contender. No one slices and dices opposing defenses off the dribble quite like SGA: he can get to the basket at will with a slippery handle, long strides, and extension finishes, all while eschewing three-point shots for a mid-range heavy attack. He has been on fire as a shooter this year from inside the arc — 70 percent at the rim, 53 percent on all mid-range shots, per Cleaning the Glass — but there’s more to his game than just buckets. Gilgeous-Alexander is an incredible caretaker of the ball, boasting a 7.6 turnover rate despite dribbling nearly as much as any player in the league. He’s become the league’s premier defensive thief, too, leading the NBA in steals by a landslide. The league hasn’t seen a player average more than 31 points per game on above 50 percent shooting with a steal rate greater than three percent since … Michael Jordan, who did it four times in his mid-20s. That’s the level SGA is playing at right now. With ascendant co-stars in Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder are loaded for now and in the future, led by a 25-year-old who is tracking as the best guard in the world.

SGA vs. Embiid is too close to call, but we give the slightest edge to Gilgeous-Alexander for a few reasons. While the Sixers and Thunder have nearly identical records, SGA has lifted a younger team in the better conference against a more difficult strength of schedule. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed one game while Embiid has missed seven. Embiid’s Sixers are +7.3 points per 100 possessions better when he plays than when he sits; SGA’s Thunder are +18.2 points per 100 possessions better when he plays than when he’s on the bench, per basketball-reference. Embiid would be wise to throttle it back in the second half of the season and save himself for the playoffs, similar to the Nuggets’ plan with Jokic last year. SGA may not have the same luxury with younger legs and less separation across the West standings.

You can’t go wrong with either pick, but for now we’ll say Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is this season’s NBA MVP.