NBA predictions for championship, MVP, Rookie of the Year, and more in 2022-2023

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11 predictions for the 2022-2023 NBA season from our team.

Another NBA season is upon us with the opening of the 2022-2023 campaign, and this one feels more wide open than ever. FiveThirtyEight’s models suggested 11 teams have at least a five percent chance at the championship, and that group doesn’t include the teams that currently employ LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Kawhi Leonard. The old adage is that the best team normally wins it all in the NBA, but this year no one knows who the best team even is entering the season.

The Golden State Warriors, fresh off their fourth championship in eight years, deserve to be viewed the favorites. The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets also return to the championship mix after both teams were compromised by star players missing last season with injuries. In the East, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are trying to get back to the mountaintop after Khris Middleton’s injury sabotaged them last year. The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics believe they have what it takes to come out of the East, too.

With the season finally here, our panel of experts gave their predictions on the year’s biggest questions. Making the picks are Nicole Ganglani, J.P. Acosta, Jacolby Hart, Brady Klopfer, Sabreena Merchant, and Ricky O’Donnell.

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1. Who wins the most regular season games?

Nicole: The Philadelphia 76ers. Despite Doc Rivers’ notorious reputation in the Playoffs, he’s still an excellent regular-season coach. Since his tenure in Philadelphia, Rivers’ winning percentage in the regular season is up to 64.9%, and this season, he’s about to lead a pretty stacked Sixers team built around Joel Embiid, who also wants that MVP trophy more than ever.

Ricky: The Nuggets. Nikola Jokic carried a woefully undermanned roster to 48 wins last season. He gets his two best teammates back this year with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. both returning from injuries, and the team added even more talent during the offseason. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown were inspired additions that should bring a defensive edge, and sophomore shooting guard Bones Hyland feels like he’s on the verge of a breakout as a microwave scorer. The Nuggets are stacked, and this time they feel built for a deep playoff run.

J.P.: The 76ers. This feels like the best team that Joel Embiid has around him. James Harden and Tyrese Maxey work extremely well together in the backcourt, and the acquisition of P.J. Tucker allows for the Sixers to be more versatile defensively, and use Tobias Harris as a matchup problem on smaller wing players or slower big men. Embiid is coming off of leading the league in scoring, and could come into this year with added motivation from not winning MVP. This might finally be the year the Process works in Philly.

Colb: The Nuggets. Getting Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back should make the Nuggets one of, if not the, best offenses in the entire league. Nikola Jokic is arguably the best offensive player in the league, and having his second and third best players available sounds like a recipe to win a bunch of regular season games.

Brady: The Nuggets. Defense may win championships, but offense wins regular season games. There is just too much firepower on this Denver squad, which has already proven to be elite in the regular season. They won 48 games last year … despite a combined nine games from their second and third-best players. The real benefit of welcoming Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back into the fold is that Nikola Jokić won’t be overworked during the season, and the Nuggets can compete for a title. But it sure will help them win a boatload of games, too.

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2. Which team will be this year’s biggest surprise team?

J.P.: The New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans pushed the Suns in the first round of the playoffs last season, and that was without having forward machine of destruction Zion Williamson healthy. Now he’s back, and the nucleus of the Pelicans is built for him to thrive as the star of the team. Herb Jones proved to be one of the best young defenders in the league and Brandon Ingram with CJ McCollum can get a bucket at any time. The Pelicans are going to be really fun this year.

Colb: The Pelicans. Anytime a team is getting their best and most important player back in the lineup that usually means a jump is coming. Zion Williamson will look like a miniature version of Shaq this season as long as he stays healthy, and a Pelicans team that made the postseason last year without him seems poised to go even further this season.

Brady: The Pelicans. A year on the sidelines made many forget that Zion Williamson has already morphed from a never-before-seen athletic specimen into an unquestioned basketball superstar. And he did that when he was 20! Now he’s 22 and healthy (knock on literally every piece of hardwood in the NBA). Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are dreamy second/third options. Jonas Valančiūnas is the perfect center to pair with the trio – a floor-spacing, board-crashing, behemoth of a human who is happy to do the dirty work. New Orleans is full of the type of role players that the average NBA fan might not have heard of, but the hardcore fans will absolutely geek out over. Injury histories mean that the Pelicans have a pretty low floor. But talent and fit mean they have a sky-high ceiling, and will be one of the most fun teams in the league to watch if things work.

Nicole: The New Orleans Pelicans. The same team that’s carrying over momentum after almost upsetting the number one seed Phoenix Suns in the Playoffs last season. The Pelicans are entering the season with more camaraderie, experience, an identity, and oh, Zion Williamson. The trio of Williamson, year seven of Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum alongside defensive-minded role players will put the league on notice by climbing the Western Conference ladder.

Ricky: The Knicks. Okay, I honestly said the Pelicans too, but I have to switch it up because no team can be a true surprise if everyone sees it coming. The Knicks’ preseason win total is 38.5, and I like them to jump over that pretty easily. The Knicks were a disappointment last season, but their point differential was that of a .500 team. They added a good point guard in Jalen Brunson for nothing but cap space, get Derrick Rose back healthy, and should see their young core improve with Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickely, and Quentin Grimes all expected to take on bigger roles. This feels like a bounce-back season for Tom Thibodeau and company.

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3. What team will be the biggest disappointment this season?

Colb: The Bulls. I’m sorry Ricky, but I just don’t see them as a real threat in a loaded Eastern Conference. Demar DeRozan was great last season, and Zach LaVine is amazing, but the Bulls feel like the team that all the other playoff teams in the East want to play so they can advance. Lonzo Ball being injured doesn’t help their cause either.

J.P.: The Chicago Bulls. Look, as much as I love Demar DeRozan and his game, it’s really hard to be as efficient as he was on contested midrange jumpers year in and year out. DeRozan shot at an absurd clip on midrange jumpers last year, but repeating that efficiency this year might be more difficult. In addition, Lonzo Ball not being healthy could be a major issue, and the Bulls already struggled against teams that made the playoffs.

Nicole: The Phoenix Suns. After notching their best franchise regular season record with 64 wins last season, it’s likely that this doesn’t translate this year again given the series of events that transpired around the team in the past couple of months. Phoenix is entering the season with an older version of Chris Paul, a disgruntled Deandre Ayton (who apparently doesn’t communicate with his coach often), without Jae Crowder, and a tougher competitive field. There’s a good chance that the Suns slip down the Western Conference standings.

Ricky: The Timberwolves. Expectations are going to be super high after essentially trading five first round picks for Rudy Gobert, but I’m still not sure this team has enough juice to battle the big boys in the West. I’m worried about Karl-Anthony Towns’ perimeter defense, I’m worried about Gobert beating switches at the offensive end, and I’m worried about the lack of a truly great table-setter at point guard. They need a mega-star leap from Anthony Edwards to make everything make sense.

Brady: The Mavericks. I’m always wary of teams that perform well in the first year of a new coach. Once the league adjusts, and once the honeymoon phase ends, then what happens? Don’t get me wrong, the Mavs will still be very good – any team with Luka Dončić will be. But there are a lot of issues once you get past Luka. Dallas was eighth in the league in garbage-time adjusted defensive rating last year. What about their personnel suggests they should be a top-10 defense, or even an above average one? The Milwaukee Bucks had the fourth-best defense in Jason Kidd’s first year as coach there … and were 23rd the next year. Jalen Brunson’s loss will hurt, and I’m dubious that Spencer Dinwiddie can make up for it. He looked good last year, but that was propped up by shooting dramatically better from three than he had at any other point in his career. Dončić guarantees a playoff visit, but I’m not sure the Mavs can give us much more than that.

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4. Name a player who will be a first time All-Star this season.

Nicole: Anthony Edwards. I went back and forth between the Minnesota Timberwolves forward and CJ McCollum, but this season just feels like a breakout opportunity for the Edwards. With Gobert now part of the team, the Timberwolves’ ceiling increases, and it can either make or break them. Edwards has now enough support to easily average at least more than 20 points and five rebounds a game. Plus, who doesn’t want to see Ant-man in the All-Star game? His persona alone makes him a popular choice for All-Star votes.

J.P.: Cade Cunningham. Detroit got themselves a good one when they selected Cunningham last year. He averaged 17 points to go with six assists and five rebounds, while providing the Pistons with a franchise centerpiece to be excited about. Now that he’s got a good running mate in Jaden Ivey and more shooters around him, expect his efficiency to go up while he runs the Pistons offense.

Ricky: Jamal Murray. He’s back from a torn ACL after missing all of last season, and he’s clearly the Nuggets’ second most important player after Jokic. Murray was on the cusp of All-Star status before the injury, and he’s in a great situation to get more national exposure this season on a Denver team with title aspirations.

Colb: Evan Mobley. When we did this last year I picked Darius Garland and was correct, so why not pick another Cavalier? Mobley could end up being the best player on a Cavs team that already has three All-Stars 26 or younger currently on the roster. He averaged 15 points and 8 rebounds as a rookie and looks poised to take a leap on both ends this season.

Brady: Scottie Barnes. Even with the NBA being a more equal landscape these days, my general rule of thumb is to always pick a first-time All-Star from the East. The West is still too packed. And who better than the reigning Rookie of the Year, who already looked like a top-12 player in the East when his debut season concluded? Not only will Barnes put up huge numbers and impact the game on both ends of the court, but he’ll do it for a Raptors team that will be very, very good. Good enough that they’ll for sure be rewarded with an All-Star. They already have two in Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam, and Barnes has a great chance at being better than either of those players this year.

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5. Who is your MVP pick?

Ricky: Joel Embiid. Embiid came close each of the last two years, and has a better team around him this season. The Sixers are going to win a ton of games in the regular season, and Embiid will be the singular star at the center of it all. This is the year he breaks through to actually win the award.

J.P.: Joel Embiid. After leading the league in scoring last year, he has every opportunity to win the award with a team better built around his talents.

Colb: Joel Embiid. It just feels like this is the season he finally breaks through and wins the award after coming close the last two seasons. As long as he stays healthy, I believe it’s his.

Nicole: Joel Embiid. This is finally his year to claim what he’s wanted for a long time, especially after failing behind Nikola Jokic in MVP votes for two seasons in a row. It also helps that Embiid’s entering year two of his partnership with James Harden as the hope to finally unleash the best of each other. The Process will get his stats, lead his team to regular-season victories, and has the narrative on his side — for as long as he stays healthy.

Brady: Giannis Antetokounmpo. My heart wants to say Joel Embiid, who will certainly be sending a gift basket to the loser of the Aaron Judge/Shohei Ohtani MVP race. Some things just aren’t fair, and some years deserve two MVPs, and Embiid was on the losing end of that a year ago. But he’s also an injury-prone player on a team that has the ability to combust. Antetokounmpo is as sure a thing as exists in the NBA: a top-five offensive and defensive player on an elite team, who has never missed more than 11 games in a season in his career.

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6. Who is your Rookie of the Year pick?

Ricky: Paolo Banchero. The Magic might not be good this year, but they’re going to be fun. Banchero’s game is built to translate immediately on the offensive end, where he should rip mid-range pull-ups, bully people down in the paint, and show off his impressive live dribble passing chops for a 6’10, 250-pound mega-wing.

J.P.: Jaden Ivey. The Pistons might actually be fun, and Ivey could put up both the numbers and highlight plays to win the award. With Cade Cunningham handling most of the on-ball duties, Ivey should flourish in transition and attacking the lane.

Nicole: Paolo Banchero. It’s simple, the Duke product is a tier above everybody else in his draft class, especially since Chet Holmgren will be sidelined for the whole season. The Rookie of the Year award is honestly Banchero’s to lose.

Colb: Bennedict Mathurin. The 6’6” wing from Arizona is going to have plenty of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet and get his game off on the Pacers. Tyrese Halliburton loves to set his teammates up to score and I believe Mathurin will have a phenomenal rookie season as a result.

Brady: Paolo Banchero. I don’t have a nuanced answer for this. Banchero was arguably the top prospect in the draft, and one of the most NBA ready. He plays on a team bad enough for him to be The Guy, but good enough to help him prop up his numbers. With Chet Holmgren out, this is an easy pick.

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7. Donovan Mitchell, Dejounte Murray, Rudy Gobert … which of these star additions will look the best after the season?

Colb: Donovan Mitchell. Listen, the Cavaliers needed literally anyone other than Darius Garland to be a threat on the perimeter last season and they went out and got one of the best 20-25 players in the entire league. His ability to create offense for himself and other, combined with how well he fits with Darius Garland, should catapult the Cavaliers to heights they’ve only reached when LeBron was on the roster,

Nicole: Donovan Mitchell. With Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Caris LeVert by his side, Mitchell will seamlessly fit in Cleveland and blossom their offense. A guard with his skillset is just so much easier for a team to adjust for, especially considering that the Cavaliers already have a defensive anchor (in Mobley) and shot-creators and shooters who can back Mitchell up. Plus, it helps that the Cavaliers are in the top-heavy Eastern Conference, which arguably isn’t as difficult compared to the loaded Western Conference.

Ricky: Mitchell. I love that acquisition for Cleveland. Now please just get him to put those wonderful physical tools to use on the defensive end.

J.P.: I think it’ll be Gobert. He provides so much help on the interior for the Timberwolves, who sorely needed it last year. He allows Karl-Anthony Towns to play more on the perimeter where he’s more comfortable, and can be a lob threat any time the Timberwolves attack the basket. Gobert gets a lot of flak from people, but his defensive impact will be massive in Minnesota.

Brady: Gobert. I’m picking him mostly because he’s viewed as the lowest of the three in the public eye, despite being the best player here. That said, his public perception would have really been aided by Utah not trading Mitchell, so NBA fans could see just how bad the Jazz were with Gobert removed from the fold. Still, Minnesota, despite its 90s approach to roster size, feels like a great fit for Gobert. Karl-Anthony Towns may be one of the NBA’s largest players, but he’s really a 4 masquerading as a 5. It’s good to view KAT as a power forward who did the Monstars thing to steal some of the skills and size of a center. I think that pairing will work beautifully on both ends, and Anthony Edwards’ perimeter defense will make Gobert more at home in the playoffs than ever before.

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8. Which team will have better vibes this season: Nets or Lakers?

J.P.: Nets, although I have no comfort in saying that. The Nets are finally bringing Ben Simmons into the equation, which should equate to wins and good vibes. The Lakers are trying to add Patrick Beverley into an equation that already includes Russell Westbrook. That feels more like adding explosives to a volcano. Nobody knows whether Westbrook will come off the bench or start, which will inevitably cause a circus off the court. Just doesn’t seem like good vibes.

Ricky: The Nets. Joe Harris’ ankle injury could again be a big problem for Brooklyn, but they have better wing depth now, in addition to the debut of Ben Simmons. I’m a little lower on Brooklyn’s place in the East than most, but they should be better than the Lakers.

Colb: This is disrespectful to the Nets honestly. I know they got put out in the first round of the playoffs last season but I still feel much better about them than I do about the Lakers. The Nets will definitely be a playoff team this season. As currently constructed, the Lakers are probably a play-in team unless LeBron and Anthony Davis are healthier this season than they have been in recent years.

Brady: The Nets. Brooklyn is a high variance team. Their best case scenario is better vibes and more wins than the Lakers’ best case scenario, and their worst case scenario is worse vibes and fewer wins than the Lakers’ worst case scenario. There’s still a chance for the vibes to be, as the kids say, immaculate. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are still close friends who love hooping more than anything else, save for a few conspiracy theories in Irving’s case. The tension with Ben Simmons seems to be more from NBA fans than from the players. It’s easy – if not likely – to imagine a world where they all just ball out and have a good time. Crypto.com Arena will get renamed to PETA Arena and snow will fall in Los Angeles before that happens to the Lakers.

Nicole: The Nets but not by a mile. Los Angeles’ situation with Russell Westbrook at this point isn’t salvageable as both parties are literally just waiting to part ways. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has the opportunity to start the season on a good note by winning a couple of games early, which they could build on. The prospect of Ben Simmons finally playing a full season for the Nets also could be something to look forward to unlike in L.A. where the organization no longer wants part of the Westbrook experience.

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9. Will this be Draymond Green’s final season in Golden State?

Brady: No. The Punch Heard ‘Round The Hardwood World and the contract extensions for Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole may have muddied the waters, but I think people are overreacting. Green staying in the Bay beyond this season is still the most plausible scenario. First off, his player option for 2023-24 is much larger than he would get on the open market. Perhaps he opts out and chases long-term stability, but I think it’s more likely he opts in and gets one more year of making big money. And if he opts in, there is zero chance he gets traded, barring another punch. So that right there puts him as likely to play at least one more season. Then there’s the Steph Curry connection, with people close to the team reporting that Curry sees he, Green, and Klay Thompson as a packaged deal. And that’s before getting into the fact that, as recently as last season, Green was the second-best player on a championship team. He’s still vital to their success, he’s still close with Curry and Thompson, and he still wants to be a Warrior. It may be uncomfortable, and it may cost Joe Lacob more money than I can even conceptualize, but I don’t think Dray is going anywhere.

Nicole: No. Draymond Green, who still has the choice to opt in his contract for next season, knows more than anyone how special this Golden State Warriors dynasty is. Is he pissed that he didn’t get the extension he wanted this summer? Probably, but it just doesn’t seem like Draymond to let go of the opportunity to win more championships and prolong one of the greatest dynasties of all time. It seems like Green’s decision will depend on how the Warriors perform this season and if he wins his 5th championship, it’s likely he stays.

Ricky: I’m going to say yes, tentatively. Draymond has a $27.5 million player option for next season. He turns 33 years old in March. If he wants to cash in on one more lucrative long-term payday, it’s best to get it as soon as possible. Green has always been underpaid in Golden State relative to Klay Thompson, and he’s probably not thrilled seeing Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole get extensions before him. He should have a big market for a three or four-year contract.

J.P.: Yes. With Wiggins and Poole getting extensions before him, it seems like he’s on the way out already. It’s only a matter of when at this point.

Colb: No. Draymond has a player option for 2023-2024 and I believe it is in his best interests to opt into that. I don’t believe the market for his services will be worth more than the $27.5 million he’s set to earn next season, so he’ll be a member of the Warriors beyond this season.

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10. What’s the most fun (realistic) Victor Wembanyama landing spot with the No. 1 pick?

Nicole: Portland Trail Blazers. The Basketball Gods need to finally reward Damian Lillard for his loyalty and bullishness to stay with the organization that believed in him first. Since the Blazers barely look like a competitive team in a stacked Western Conference, there’s a decent chance that they falter once again. They need to chase after Wembanyama (by trading for first-round picks) for Lillard’s and the organization’s sake.

Ricky: Spurs. For all the reasons I detailed in this post.

J.P.: Spurs. Giving Wembanyama to Gregg Popovich seems like the best fit for his development given Pop’s history with big men. The Spurs are in the middle of rebuilding, and have a bunch of solid role players without the big fish. Wembanyama has the potential to be just that.

Colb: The Spurs. I can’t really think of a better landing spot for Wembanyama than getting to be coached by one of the best coaches in NBA history. If I’m being completely honest though, as long as he doesn’t end up on the Utah Jazz I’ll be happy.

Brady: The Thunder. Sure, the NBA would cry if Wembanyama ends up in one of the smallest markets in the league, but I don’t care. I have a vision of Wembanyama sharing a court with Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, forming the longest, rangiest, most slithery trio in NBA history. I need to see this.

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11. Give us your 2023 NBA Finals prediction: teams, winner, and number of games.

Ricky: Clippers over Bucks in six. The Bucks have the best player in the world in Giannis Antetokounmpo. I think the Clips have the best overall roster, the best head coach (hot take, I know), and the best governor. LA’s depth over Milwaukee is their real advantage in this hypothetical series.

J.P.: Bucks over Warriors in seven. Giannis is the best player on the planet, and despite some issues with depth, the Bucks should be right back in the thick of the title hunt. When Khris Middleton gets healthy, they’ll be difficult to stop. The vibes in Golden State are very weird now, but they return almost everyone from the title winning team last year. This time, they run into Giannis, and he’s ultimately too much for the Warriors to handle.

Colb: Cavs over the Warriors in seven games. I know, I know, I know. No one thinks the Cavs are ready to take it all the way in their first season with this new young core, and if I’m being real with you they probably won’t, but I believe they have the talent to take it all the way. Doing it against the Warriors would also make it that much sweeter.

Nicole: Los Angeles Clippers versus Milwaukee Bucks, with the former winning its first-ever championship in six games.

Brady: Warriors over Bucks, seven games. Two of the deepest and most well-rounded teams in the NBA, with two of the best players alive, and four of the best second fiddles. It was meant to be.

What do you think? Who do you think got it right? Let us know and vote below. Don’t forget to sign up for our weekly NBA Reacts surveys to answer more questions like these all season long!