Here’s our first 2024 NFL mock draft of the new season.
With the first quarter of the NFL season almost in the books, we have a pretty good feel for which teams are truly going to contend for a Super Bowl and which teams will be pinning their hopes on the NFL Draft in April. The pretenders are being separated from the contenders, and that’s setting up for some interesting possibilities come draft time.
Since most fans of certain bad teams in the NFL at this point are beginning to look at mock drafts (cough cough Chicago), let’s throw our names into the pot here as well. We put out a preseason board the day after the 2023 NFL Draft. This is our first updated projection since the new season began.
The Chicago Bears lead the way with the top two picks in the draft. Find more analysis after the table.
The Chicago Bears reset their offense—again
It’s entirely possible that the Chicago Bears have two of the top five picks in the NFL Draft come April. The Bears are reaching historic levels of ineptitude, and coming off a loss to the second-worst team in the NFL in the Denver Broncos, a game that they were leading 28-7 before losing 31-28. If the Bears are picking anywhere within the top five, they have to use one of those picks on another QB. The Justin Fields experiment hasn’t worked for Fields or for the Bears, and Fields needs a different environment to grow in.
In this first mock draft of the season, USC’s Caleb Williams becomes a Chicago Bear with the first overall pick. Williams is a magician outside the pocket, with the creativity to throw the ball off platform while being very good from the pocket as well. He also is a very good athlete who can take designed runs. He’ll give whoever is coaching that team next year a new QB to build around. With their next pick, Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. becomes a Bear. There’s an argument that can be made about Harrison being the top overall player in this entire draft class, and his body control, athleticism and finesse as a route runner make him the perfect outside receiver in the modern NFL.
Williams and Harrison Jr. give the Bears offense an instant facelift, and some actual excitement in the city of Chicago.
How many QBs come off the board early?
In this mock draft, four QBs went within the first 11 picks and six in the whole first round, but I have a feeling that number could increase by the time we come to draft season. This QB class has a lot of guys that teams will talk themselves into, even past presumed top guys Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has had a stellar start to the season for the Wolverines, and in this first mock draft he heads to the Minnesota Vikings. Current Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is in the final year of his contract, and with the Vikings wanting to “competitively rebuild”, this could be the time for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell to draft a guy to hitch themselves to.
The New England Patriots were next up on the clock, and they also went QB, taking Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. Sanders is a question mark not because of his play—his processing and touch as a passer in the intermediate levels of the field is stellar—but because some believe he could return to school for another year. There have been rumors floating that he could opt to return for another season to play with Travis Hunter again and be considered QB1 in 2025, but we’ll have to wait and see. If he does decide to enter the draft, the Patriots can make him the new face of the franchise. The Mac Jones experience has just not been fun for anyone involved, and it might be time for a change. Sanders is good enough as a point guard to run the Bill O’Brien offense, but still has tremendous upside and potential beyond being a facilitator.
Later, the Atlanta Falcons go QB and take Duke’s Riley Leonard later on. Leonard is an interesting case, as he’s a player who is a legit athlete and can make the throws in the short to intermediate parts of the field, but the downfield passing leaves some to be desired. However, Leonard could potentially be an upgrade over current starter Desmond Ridder if the Falcons decide to go draft their next QB. Atlanta could also trade for a QB, but that remains to be seen.
Finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take a QB, drafting Texas’ Quinn Ewers in the first round. Ewers is an interesting prospect, with the highs being extremely high (see: both Alabama games) and the lows being very very low (see: most of 2022 outside of the Alabama game). Ewers has easy arm strength and a quick release, but is most effective off play action, and has enough athleticism to work off platform. In Tampa, that’ll be a great fit in Dave Canales’ offense. QB Baker Mayfield has surprised some, but he’s on a one-year deal. This is a great opportunity for the Bucs to cash in on their QB of the future, and they get one in Ewers.
This is even without QBs like Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Michael Pratt, who could all fight for a potential first round spot if the season continues like this. The upcoming QB class might be good, with multiple guys not becoming stars, but being serviceable starters (which is saying a lot considering the past few drafts).
Keon Coleman leaps into the first round
When Florida State WR Keon Coleman transferred from Michigan State to Tallahassee, I imagine it was for this reason. His play has elevated the Seminoles to one of the best teams in the nation and has him in the top half of the first round. The former basketball player displays legit above-the-rim athleticism and is a ball winner at the catch point, routinely making plays like this:
Coleman’s size, athleticism and catch point prowess make him a legit WR with top guy potential.
In this first mock draft, Coleman goes to the New York Giants. The Giants are in desperate need of some legit outside receivers, with Isaiah Hodgins being the only true boundary receiver they have. Coleman has the field stretching ability to create lanes for TE Darren Waller, while also giving QB Daniel Jones a guy who can win at the catch point and create after the catch as well.
