Here’s our NFL MVP ballot.
The NFL regular season has wrapped up, and now it’s everyone’s favorite time of the year: AWARDS SEASON!
That’s right, ballots made by websites such as this one will give you their takes on the Most Valuable Player, the highest award that can be given to an individual in the NFL. This year it feels like there are multiple candidates for MVP, with each of them having a very good case to win the award.
Here’s our top six candidates, as voted on by Mark Schofield, JP Acosta, James Dator, and Ricky O’Donnell, starting at the sixth-place finisher and counting down to our winner.
A. defensive player has not won MVP since 1986, when the fearsome Lawrence Taylor took home MVP honors after notching 20.5 sacks and 105 total tackles. That is unlikely to change this season, but the player with perhaps the best chance is Nick Bosa, the pass rusher from the San Francisco 49ers.
Bosa is having a monster year in his own right, as his 18.5 sacks led the NFL, and represent a career-high mark for the pass rusher. Bosa is also second in the NFL in tackles for a loss, and he led the NFL with 56 pressures this season.
DeMeco Ryans has put together one of the league’s best defenses this season, and Bosa is a huge reason why.
There are a number of reasons why the Cincinnati Bengals are considered one of the favorites to come out of the AFC, but the play from quarterback Joe Burrow is atop the list. Burrow has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns, against 12 interceptions, and his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.76 ranks him seventh in the NFL.
Burrow is also seventh in Expected Points Added per Dropback among NFL quarterbacks, and ranks fourth in Completion Percentage Over Expectation. Burrow also ranks sixth in EPA+CPOE Composite scoring, which examines quarterback efficiency.
An area where Burrow stands out is in the pocket, and in the face of pressure. Burrow is elite at moving in the pocket to create space, while keeping his eyes trained downfield to pick out a target in the passing game. Studying him in the face of pressure unveils coaching tape for playing the position. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Burrow has an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 71.6 percent this year when pressured, tops among the quarterbacks on this list.
Justin Jefferson has posted eye-popping numbers this season. He led the NFL in receptions (128), receiving yards (1,809), first downs (80), and receiving yards per game (106.4). His 128 receptions are nearly double that of the players who finished second and third on the Vikings in receptions, Adam Thielen (70) and K.J. Osborne (60). Jefferson also accounts for 38 percent of Minnesota’s receiving yards on the year.
In addition, according to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, Jefferson led all wide receivers with 628 yards after the catch. Not only did Jefferson create opportunities for the Vikings with his route-running, and at the catch point, but also after the reception.
Then there were plays like this:
A wide receiver has never won MVP. It is likely that Jefferson falls short when all is said and done, but he has earned the right to be in the discussion with his play.
Josh Allen is in this conversation because of how much the Buffalo Bills ask him to do. The Bills have run the ball 430 times this season—124 of them are Josh Allen carries, second behind Devin Singletary. Among all Bills with double digit carries, Allen leads the team in EPA/rush. He’s second in QBR and second in Success Rate, while his receivers outside of Stefon Diggs haven’t been as good.
Allen will still throw the red zone interception, but overall his play has been stellar and a large part of why the Bills are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Jalen Hurts has been nothing short of a revelation this season, and his MVP candidacy is based on how much he elevates the run game of the Eagles in addition to the steps he’s made as a passer. If you examine the games that Jalen Hurts missed compared to the ones he played in (he missed two games due to injury in weeks 16 and 17), those were two of the three worst games the Eagles had in terms of EPA/rushing attempt.
Their first down rate in those games was also two of the worst outings they had over the season. Yes, the Eagles offensive line is fantastic, but much of the Eagles rushing success could be attributed to Hurts as well. He’s third in EPA/rushing attempt and first in rushing TDs with 13 on the ground. In addition, his total EPA is higher in the passing game, and his development as a passer unlocked the Eagles offense and made it the most dynamic in the league. That screams MVP worthy to me.
Mahomes has been the best QB in the NFL this year, and his efficiency has been off the charts. Mahomes has thrown for a career high 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, and also thrown in 358 rushing yards as well. His 5,614 yards of total offense set an NFL record, breaking Drew Brees’ record set in 2011. Reminder: he’s doing this without Tyreek Hill as well.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the 2022 Chiefs’ total passing EPA is the 4th-highest in the NFL since they started keeping track of the stat in 2015. Only the 2016 Falcons, 2018 and 2020 Chiefs were higher. Mahomes’ total EPA this year is almost 50 points higher than the next QB, and since 2015 it’s the fifth highest total recorded. Oh, and the other guys on that list won MVP except for Drew Brees, because his year was also the same as 2018 Patrick Mahomes, who has the highest total EPA ever recorded by SIS.
The Chiefs offense had to change after the Tyreek Hill trade, and it simply became one of the best we’ve ever seen in the NFL. Mahomes is the engine behind that, and for that he is leading the MVP consideration.
