NFL playoff and elimination scenarios for Week 15

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The Philadelphia Eagles are in the playoffs already, now who can join them in Week 15?

The Philadelphia Eagles are in the playoffs.

Now who can join them?

The Eagles punched their ticket to the postseason with Sunday’s victory over the New York Giants. With the win, the Eagles are guaranteed of at least a playoff berth, but their hopes of clinching the NFC East might need to wait a few more weeks. Their Christmas Eve meeting with the Dallas Cowboys looms large.

The Kansas City Chiefs came close to clinching a berth, but the Los Angeles Chargers’ victory on Sunday night over the Miami Dolphins means they cannot clinch the AFC West until this weekend.

Here are the playoff scenarios for Week 15.

Playoff Scenarios

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs

As noted, the Chiefs entered Week 14 with a chance to clinch the AFC West for the seventh-straight season. While Kansas City got the victory over the Denver Broncos they needed, the Chargers’ win over the Dolphins at least kept Los Angeles’s slim division title hopes alive.

Still, that win over Denver inched the Chiefs closer to the division title. They can lock up the AFC West with a win Sunday over the Houston Texans, who gave the Cowboys fits last weekend but enter Week 15 with a 1-11-1 record on the year. Kansas City can also clinch the AFC West if they lose, provided the Chargers lose as well to the Tennessee Titans.

The Chiefs can also clinch the division with a tie against Houston, if the Chargers tie Tennessee as well.

Beyond just clinching the division, the Chiefs can punch a playoff ticket through a few different combinations. First, if they tie the Texans, then a loss from both the New York Jets and the New England Patriots would guarantee the Chiefs a playoff berth. The Jets host the Detroit Lions on Sunday, while the Patriots take on the Las Vegas Raiders.

Second, the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth with a tie against the Texans, coupled by a Jets loss, a Patriots tie, and a Dolphins loss. Miami takes on the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night.

Finally, Kansas City locks up a playoff spot with a tie, a Jets tie, a Patriots loss, and a Dolphins loss.

Buffalo Bills

The other AFC team that can clinch a postseason spot is the Bills. Buffalo hosts Miami on Saturday night, and they lock up a playoff spot with a win over the Dolphins. They can also clinch a spot in the postseason with a tie and either: A Chargers loss; a Jets loss coupled with a Patriots loss; or, a Chargers tie, a Patriots tie, and a Jets loss.

NFC

Three teams enter Week 15 with a chance to secure postseason spots.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings had a chance to lock up the NFC North with a win last week, but their loss to the Lions put those plans on hold.

Still, with their four-game lead in the division, they remain on the cusp of clinching the division. Here is how they can do just that this weekend. First, with a win or a tie, they win the division. Even if they lose to the 4-8-1 Indianapolis Colts on Saturday afternoon, then if the Lions either tie the Jets on Sunday, or lose to them outright, then the Vikings clinch the division.

Looking ahead, there is a path for the Vikings to reach the postseason even if they lose out to finish 10-7. Using the 538.com Playoff Predictions model, even with four-straight losses to end the season the Vikings finish with a 99% chance to reach the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers

Thanks to last week’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — which made yet more history for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy — San Francisco is on the cusp of the postseason. How can they clinch? By beating Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.

Do that, and the 49ers clinch the division.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot this week, through six different combinations of results.

The easiest? A win over Jacksonville on Sunday. With a win the Cowboys are in the playoffs. Their hopes of a division title largely rest on their Christmas Eve meeting with the Eagles.

If the Cowboys can only tie the Jaguars on Sunday, they can still clinch a playoff spot. How? With either a New York Giants loss or a Washington Commanders loss.

Those teams play each other.

Dallas can also clinch a playoff spot with a tie against Jacksonville, and a Seahawks loss or tie with San Francisco.

Even with a loss to Jacksonville, two different combinations of results could see Dallas lock up a spot. If the Seahawks and Commanders lose, then Dallas is in. If the Seahawks lose, and the Lions either lose or tie, Dallas is in.

Elimination Scenarios

And now, some bad news.

Seven teams in the NFL are on the verge of being eliminated from postseason contention.

AFC

Four teams in the AFC — the Colts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Cleveland Browns, can be eliminated this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts can be eliminated this weekend in two different ways. In the first scenario, a loss to the Vikings coupled with both a Titans win or tie, and a Jets win, eliminates the Colts.

In the second scenario, a loss to the Vikings coupled with both a Titans in or tie, and a Patriots win, eliminates the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers

There are three ways the Steelers can be eliminated this weekend.

First, a loss to the Carolina Panthers and a Patriots win over the Raiders knocks Pittsburgh out.

Second, a loss to the Panthers coupled with both a Jets win and a Chargers win or tie, and Pittsburgh is out.

Third, a loss to the Panthers along with both a Chargers win, and a tie between the Raiders and the Patriots, and the Steelers are home for the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns can be eliminated from the playoffs through three different scenarios.

First, a Browns loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, coupled with a Chargers win, eliminates Cleveland.

Second, a Cleveland loss along with a Jets win knocks out the Browns.

Third, a Cleveland loss plus a Patriots win knocks out the Browns.

Las Vegas Raiders

Their recent success — Las Vegas has won three of their last four games — has likely come too late in the season to save their playoff aspirations. Here is how the Las Vegas Raiders can be eliminated this weekend. First, a loss to the Patriots coupled with a Dolphins win or tie on Saturday night, and the Raiders are out. Second, a loss to the Patriots coupled with a Jets win or tie on Sunday, and Las Vegas is out.

NFC

Now to the NFC side of things, where three teams could start making vacation plans come next week: The Los Angeles Rams, the Arizona Cardinals, and the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans Saints

The only viable path for the Saints to make the playoffs is by winning the NFC South. Since, well, someone has to win that division, they are technically alive. But a loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, coupled with either a win or a tie from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who play the Cincinnati Bengals) would eliminate New Orleans.

In addition, a loss to the Falcons coupled with a Panthers win or tie against the Steelers, would eliminate the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals received some bad news on Monday night when starting quarterback Kyler Murray was lost with a knee injury. While they still have a shot at making the playoffs, they have no margin for error. A loss to the Denver Broncos would eliminate them from the playoffs.

Furthermore, a tie with Denver could still see the Cardinals eliminated in two ways. First, a tie plus a Seahawks loss or tie, would eliminate Arizona. Second, a tie plus a tie between the Giants and the Commanders, would eliminate Arizona.

Even if the Cardinals win on Sunday against Denver, they are not in the clear. A Seahawks win on Thursday night, coupled with either the Commanders or Giants winning their game on Sunday night, eliminates the Cardinals.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams received an injection of energy last week with the arrival of Baker Mayfield, but their slim playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.

A loss to the Green Bay Packers on Monday night, and the Rams are eliminated.

If the Rams were to tie the Packers Monday night, they could still be eliminated. A tie coupled with a Seahawks win or tie, and the Rams are out. A tie coupled with a Giants win or tie, and Los Angeles is home for the playoffs.

Even if Los Angeles wins on Monday night, they could still be eliminated before even taking the field. A Seahawks win Thursday night, coupled with either the Giants or the Commanders winning their game Sunday night, eliminates the Rams before their game Monday night.