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Diving into the playoff picture as Week 14 draws to a close
Chaos reigns in the NFL
As Week 14 winds down, with only three games left on the schedule, we can take a look at how things stand in the current playoff picture. Thanks to results during Sunday afternoon’s slate of games, things have gotten very chaotic in both the NFC, and the AFC.
Ahead of the remaining games, we can take a look at the current playoff picture. That includes what games each team has left on their schedule as well as the hypothetical playoff matchups in both the AFC and the NFC. There are still three games left this week, starting with the massive matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys that is just about to get underway.
Then there are a pair of games on Monday night, one in each conference. On the AFC side of things, the Tennessee Titans visit the Miami Dolphins. Over in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers visit MetLife Stadium and the New York Giants.
We will update the NFL playoff picture after each of those three games, but here is how things stand after the Sunday afternoon games.
Also, before we get going you might want to familiarize yourself with the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures. We’re gonne be using them … a lot.
NFC
In right now
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Remaining games: at Cowboys, at Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, at Giants
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
Remaining games: at Cardinals, Ravens, at Commanders, Rams
3. Detroit Lions (9-4)
Remaining games: Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Remaining games: at Packers, Jaguars, Saints, at Panthers
5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Remaining games: Eagles, at Bills, at Dolphins, Lions, at Commanders
6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Remaining games: at Bengals, Lions, Packers, at Lions
7. Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Remaining games: at Giants, Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, Bears
Let’s start with the chaotic NFC South.
While the Carolina Panthers have already been eliminated from playoff contention, the other three teams are still alive. Thanks to results on Sunday — New Orleans defeating Carolina, and Tampa Bay defeating Atlanta, who came into the day leading in the division — those three teams now all sit at 6-7.
Thanks to tiebreakers, the Buccaneers lead the division at the moment. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans earlier this season, and the Buccaneers hold a tiebreaker over the Falcons at the moment, due to their winning percentage against common opponents.
But there is a lot of football left to be played among these three teams, including a Week 18 game where the Saints host the Falcons. My dear friend JP Acosta and I have been saying for a long time that the Saints-Falcons game will be put into the Sunday night window to close out the 2023 season, as it might determine who wins the division. So … prepare yourself.
And as we will see in a moment, thanks to results on Sunday the teams in the NFC South now have a path to the Wild Card.
Turning to the Wild Card, Minnesota’s thrilling win over the Raiders keeps them in the sixth spot, and even if the Packers win tomorrow night, the Vikings own the tiebreaker thanks to their win over Minnesota earlier this season. These two teams meet again in Week 17.
The Rams, Seahawks, Falcons, and Saints all have matching 6-7 records at the moment. Under the NFL tie-breaking procedures, when there are ties between three or more teams from multiple divisions, division matchups are used first to “eliminate” teams from each division, leaving just the highest-ranked team in each division. Then, additional tiebreakers are applied.
Under this formula, the Seahawks are “eliminated” by the Rams, as Los Angeles has swept that season series. Atlanta currently has the tie-breaker advantage over the Saints, thanks to their head-to-head results.
Then between the Rams and the Falcons, the Rams come out ahead and are therefore in the eighth spot due to a better record in the NFC. The Rams are 4-4 in the conference, while the Falcons are 4-5.
When it comes to the ninth spot, Atlanta still has the advantage over New Orleans, but the Seahawks have an advantage over the Falcons, based on a 5-5 record in the NFC, compared with Atlanta’s 4-5 conference record.
Got it?
Good.
In the hunt
8. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
Remaining games: Commanders, Saints, at Giants, at 49ers
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
Remaining games: Eagles, at Titans, Steelers, at Cardinals
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Remaining games: at Panthers, Colts, at Bears, at Saints
11. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Remaining games: Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, Falcons
NFC playoff matchups if the postseason started today
If the NFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Philadelphia Eagles would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the NFC.
The NFC playoff picture will be updated following Sunday Night Football.
AFC
In right now
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
Remaining games: at Jaguars, at 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers
2. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
Remaining games: Titans, Jets, Cowboys, at Ravens, Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
Remaining games: at Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Remaining games: Ravens, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
Remaining games: Bears, at Texans, Jets, at Bengals
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Remaining games: at Colts, Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Remaining games: Steelers, at Falcons, Raiders, Texans
In last week’s playoff picture, we noted that things were “fascinating” in the AFC.
They got even more fascinating on Sunday with the early results.
Let’s start at the top. Thanks to the dramatic punt return touchdown from Tylan Wallace in overtime, the Baltimore Ravens not only pulled out the win against the visiting Los Angeles Rams, but they moved into the top spot in the AFC.
For the moment, as the Miami Dolphins have a chance to pull back into the top spot with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. That would give Miami seven conference wins, juxtaposed to six for Baltimore.
However, those two teams are set to meet in Week 17.
The Jaguars and Chiefs have matching 8-5 records, but Kansas City’s win back in Week 2 gives them the edge for the third spot in the conference.
Now let’s look at the cloudy Wild Card picture in the AFC. As things stand right now, the Browns are the fifth seed, thanks to their 8-5 record.
Behind them, a glut of six teams sit at 7-6 on the season. As outlined above, division tiebreakers are used to get the top team from each division, leaving us with Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Denver, and Buffalo. Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker over Cincinnati, and Indianapolis has the tiebreaker over Houston.
The Steelers then come out on top among those four teams, thanks to five wins in the AFC (ahead of both Denver and Buffalo), and then a better record among common opponents than Indianapolis.
With Pittsburgh slotted in at six, we do this again with Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, and Buffalo. As we saw a moment ago, Indianapolis “eliminates” Houston thanks to a win back in Week 2. That leaves the Colts, the Bengals, the Broncos, and the Bills vying for that final spot.
The tiebreakers then advance to conference records. Right now the Colts have five AFC wins, while the Bills and Broncos each have four. The Bengals have just three. That puts the Colts in.
For now.
Among the four teams left on the outside looking in, Houston has the advantage at the moment, with a 4-4 record in the AFC. Denver slots in at the ninth spot, thanks to a better conference record than Cincinnati, and a head-to-head win over Buffalo. That leaves Cincinnati and Buffalo left, and thanks to the Bengals’ win back at the start of November, Cincinnati comes out ahad.
As for the Raiders and the Chargers, they dropped to 5-8 with their losses this week, and are thus dropped from the “In the hunt” category
In the hunt
8. Houston Texans (7-6)
Remaining games: at Titans, Browns, Titans, at Colts
9. Denver Broncos (7-6)
Remaining games: at Lions, Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
Remaining games: Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, Browns
11. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Remaining games: Cowboys, at Chargers, Patriots, at Dolphins
AFC playoff matchups if the postseason started today
If the AFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Baltimore Ravens, as outlined above, would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the AFC.
