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Breaking down the NFL playoff picture ahead of Ravens-Jaguars
When Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season finally drew to a close, the playoff picture was rather chaotic.
In the AFC alone, six teams boasted matching 7-6 records, crowding the field for the final two Wild Card spots. Over in the NFC, a glut of teams with identical 6-7 records left us resorting to multiple tiebreakers to see who would be in, and who would be out, if the playoffs were upon us.
Thanks to results this weekend, the picture has become the slightest bit clearer. There are still two games remaining this week — the Sunday Night Football tile between the Baltimore Ravens and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and a big NFC clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night — but here is how things stand at the moment.
We will update the NFL playoff picture after each of the final two games this week.
Also, before we get going you might want to familiarize yourself with the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures. We’re gonna be using them … a lot.
NFC
In right now
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
Remaining games: Ravens, at Commanders, Rams
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
Remaining games: at Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, at Giants
3. Detroit Lions (10-4)
Remaining games: at Vikings, at Cowboys, Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Remaining games: Jaguars, Saints, at Panthers
5. Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Remaining games: at Dolphins, Lions, at Commanders
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
Remaining games: Lions, Packers, at Lions
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-7)
Remaining games: Saints, at Giants, at 49ers
In the hunt
8. New Orleans Saints (7-7)
Remaining games: at Rams, at Buccaneers, Falcons
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
Remaining games: Eagles, at Titans, Steelers, at Cardinals
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Remaining games: Colts, at Bears, at Saints
11. Green Bay Packers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Panthers, at Vikings, Bears
We can start at the top of the NFC. San Francisco inched closer to clinching the top spot with their win over the Cardinals. Dallas, due to their loss to the Bills, drops out of the top spot in the NFC East for the moment, although they could move back there if the Eagles lose Monday night to the Seahawks.
It was not all bad news for the Cowboys, as they clinched a playoff spot thanks to losses by the Packers and the Falcons. Philadelphia clinched a playoff spot as well, thanks to results in other games.
When it comes to the Wild Card spots, the Saints, Rams, and Vikings are all tied with matching 7-7 records. Minnesota has a tie-breaker advantage over both teams due to a better record in the conference. The Vikings have a 6-3 conference record, while the Rams are 5-4 and the Saints are 4-5.
That leaves the Saints and the Rams fighting for the last playoff spot, and at the moment the Rams have the advantage as they are 5-4 in the NFC, while the Saints have a 4-5 record in the conference, as outlined above.
However, these two teams play Thursday night, in a game that suddenly looms large.
NFC playoff matchups if the postseason started today
If the NFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The San Francisco 49ers would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the NFC.
AFC
In right now
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
Remaining games: at Jaguars, at 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers
2. Miami Dolphins (10-4)
Remaining games: Cowboys, at Ravens, Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Remaining games: Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Remaining games: Ravens, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans
5. Cleveland Browns (9-5)
Remaining games: at Texans, Jets, at Bengals
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Remaining games: at Steelers, at Chiefs, Browns
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Remaining games: at Falcons, Raiders, Texans
In the hunt
8. Houston Texans (8-6)
Remaining games: Browns, Titans, at Colts
9. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
Remaining games: at Chargers, Patriots, at Dolphins
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Remaining games: Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
11. Denver Broncos (7-7)
Remaining games: Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders
Let’s start at the top. With their win on Sunday against the Jets, the Dolphins moved to 10-4 on the year. But they are still behind the Ravens for the top spot in the conference at the moment. However, should Baltimore lose tonight, Miami would slide into the top spot, as they would have the better conference record.
Regarding the final two spots, the Bengals are tied with the Colts, the Bills, and the Texans. Under the tiebreaker rules, the two AFC South teams are pitted against each other until one is left standing. In this process the Colts “eliminate” the Texans, as Indianapolis has the better head-to-head record.
Then between the three. remaining teams, Cincinnati has wins over both Indianapolis and Buffalo, so they slide into sixth. Between Indianapolis and Buffalo, the Colts have the better conference record, so they drop into seventh, while the Bills slide out of playoff position.
Between the Texans and the Bills, Houston has the edge right now due to a better conference record. So the Texans are in eighth, and the Bills in ninth.
AFC playoff matchups if the postseason started right now
If the AFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
The Baltimore Ravens, as outlined above, would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the AFC.
This will be updated after both ‘Sunday Night Football’ and ‘Monday Night Football’.
