NFL rookie QB evaluations after preseason for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and more

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How did all of the top 2024 NFL rookie QBs perform this preseason?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

That bit of wisdom applies to rookie quarterbacks in their first preseasons as they work to get the hang of the NFL and its faster, more complex defenses, bigger playbooks, and new targets and blockers.

For a lot of rookie signal-callers, their first reps in the NFL – even against preseason defenses filled with more rudimentary concepts and lesser players – can be like trying to jump on a bullet train at full speed.

Based on the tape, here’s how the top seven drafted quarterbacks in the 2024 selection process fared in their first go-rounds at the (nearly) highest level of competition.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

What he did: In two preseason games, Williams completed 10 of 20 passes for 170 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.2. He ran twice for 20 yards and a touchdown.

What went well: When throwing out of boot and throwing passes outside of structure, WIlilams was absolutely incendiary at times. His ability to maintain his mechanics when on the move showed up in more than one highlight play, and never so much as on this ridiculous 45-yard completion to Rome Odunze against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. There are a handful of veteran NFL quarterbacks who can make precision throws like this downfield against one’s own physical momentum.

What needs work: Williams completed just one of five passes when under pressure, and as cool as the off-script stuff was, he got a bit frenetic when pressured if he didn’t see the superhero play. Williams’ passer rating dropped from 130.1 to 81.3 with USC last season, so this bears watching. He’ll need to advance his pocket-movement skills to make hay in the NFL.

Williams has every tool required to break the Bears’ 75-year quarterback curse. And once he slows his process down a bit when there’s bodies around him, that will be the most important addition to his bag.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

What he did: In two preseason games, Daniels completed 12 of 15 passes for 123 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 100.8. He ran the ball three times for 16 yards and a touchdown.

What went well: Daniels started his first NFL preseason against the New York Jets by overshooting a screen pass to running back Austin Ekeler. Then, his second professional pass showed us that Daniels is still the best boundary and fade thrower in this draft class. He hit receiver Dyami Brown on a beautiful go ball out of four verts against the Jets’ spinning Cover-1. Just 42 yards later, the Commanders had seen all they needed to see.

At the end of that first drive, Daniels ran for a 3-yard touchdown out of a zone read. That was pretty much case closed as far as what Daniels needed to show anybody.

What needs work: Daniels had a couple of throws he’d like back where his ball location wasn’t where it should have been. This was especially true on this moonball to receiver Terry McLaurin against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. As Daniels torched the NCAA last season on these kinds of backside fade balls, we’ll chalk this up to rookie yips.

Overall, when he stayed within himself, Daniels was the guy the Commanders wanted with the second overall pick. He ran the offense with confidence, showed both touch and velocity on his passes, and proved to be a threat in the run game.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

What he did: In three preseason games, Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 192 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.9. He ran seven times for 32 yards, one touchdown… and three fumbles.

What went well: Perhaps most importantly, Maye survived his own offensive line, and that was most difficult in New England’s preseason finale against the Commanders. All three of his fumbles had bad center exchanges at their roots, and Maye was pressured on 34.2% of his dropbacks. Maye was especially under siege in that Commanders game, and the extent to which he was able to move in the pocket and mitigate all that pressure with big-time throws was singularly impressive. One of those bad snaps put the Patriots at their own 4-yard line, and Maye responded brilliantly with what turned out to be a 101-yard drive, if you throw in the one of many penalties from New England’s offensive line.

And this 29-yard pass to fellow rookie Ja’Lynn Polk was everything you want your rookie quarterback to see and respond to.

What needs work: Maye had a weird tendency to sail intermediate throws at North Carolina, and that rogue thing has extended itself into the NFL. I’m not sure where this comes from, but there are still too many pop-offs that should be easy completions.

Maye was probably the toolsiest quarterback in this class; the question was whether he could iron out the rough spots to make himself NFL-conversant as soon as possible. The improvement in pocket movement is very nice. Jacoby Brissett was named the Patriots’ starter so Maye has time to develop, and if he is able to reduce those odd easy throw issues – and survive his front five – he should be good for a ton of explosive plays through the air and on the ground.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

What he did: In two preseason games before the Falcons shut him down for whatever unknown reason, Penix completed nine of 16 passes for 104 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 76.0. He had no rushing attempts.

What went well: The Falcons were clear in their intent to have Penix go through his progressions in the one game he actually played, and at times, he was all over that in a positive sense. His 16-yard pass to fellow rookie Casey Washington against the Dolphins had Penix looking to his right at first, finding the coverage unfavorable to that side, and then hitting Washington on the backside dig with a flat-footed throw that showed some of Penix’s velocity.

What needs work: Penix was the NCAA’s most prolific deep passer last season (117 attempts of 20 or more air yards for the Washington Huskies last season, which was 20 more than any other college quarterback), so it was quite odd to see so many incompletions on deep passes, especially to the sideline. Casey Washington would have had a Day For the Ages against the Dolphins if half of these passes were remotely in Washington’s vicinity.

Penix’s numbers when pressured and blitzed (which raised concerns among those who studied his college tape) were suboptimal – he was one of three for nine yards when pressured and three of seven for 48 yards when blitzed – makes one wonder, again, why Penix wasn’t given more time in the preseason to work out the bugs. We can but wait and see what it all means once the regular season rolls around, and whether Kirk Cousins is 100% ready to go after last season’s torn Achilles tendon.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

What he did: In one preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders, McCarthy completed 11 of 17 passes for 118 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 116.8. He had no rushing attempts. He also suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, which will end his 2024 season before it could officially begin. Ugh.

What went well: McCarthy completed just 25 of 46 passes over 20 air yards for Michigan last season, so it was a bit surprising to see him successfully hurling the ball all over the field for the Vikings when he did. McCarthy was accurate deep to all levels of the field, and in conjunction with head coach Kevin O’Connell’s brilliant passing game designs, it really showed up.

What went wrong: Well, besides the season-ending injury (How was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?), McCarthy did get a bit loose with his mechanics at times, and that led to some less-than-optimal throws. That included the interception he threw to Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Jack Jones.

It’s obviously a shame that McCarthy’s rookie season will be a wash, but there’s a lot to work with here. As McCarthy recovers from the injury, he’ll be able to take the gap year to refine what needs refining. Overall, I’d say that McCarthy was a pleasant surprise with the reps he was able to take.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

What he did: In two preseason games, Nix completed 23 of 30 passes for 211 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 117.5. He also ran the ball six times for 29 yards.

What went well: Nix’s 23-yard completion to Cameron Sutton against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 of the preseason said a lot about why he’ll work well in Sean Payton’s offense. Nix had a drag/stop route over the middle and two vertical routes to his front side. He looked the Cover-3 safety to the middle of the field where receiver Tim Patrick was headed, and then turned to hit Sutton nearer to the numbers.

What needs work: Sean Payton doesn’t want his quarterbacks wasting opportunities from the pocket; one of many reasons he was so frustrated with Russell Wilson last season. Nix did have a tendency to throw wild passes from the pocket when pressure was converging – this cemetery ball to tight end Greg Dulcich was one example.

Overall, Nix acquitted himself as expected in his first preseason. He’s more of a Payton quarterback than Russell Wilson was ever going to be – a very football-conversant player who will learn the structure of Payton’s offense and spit it back over and over on the field.

Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints

What he did: In three preseason games, Rattler completed 20 of 38 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 76.9. He also ran the ball seven times for 26 yards and another touchdown.

What went well: Selected with the 151st overall pick in the fifth round, Rattler had more than enough first-round tape from his South Carolina days – especially considering the fact that he was working behind what may have been the NCAA’s worst offensive line. It didn’t take long for semi-astute observers to note that Rattler had enough on the ball to perhaps compete with Derek Carr for the starting job. Rattler’s arm talent, as well as his ability to throw on the move and navigate pressure, were NFL-ready more often than not this preseason.

What needs work: Like a lot of quarterbacks who are used to porous offensive lines (and it appears that he’ll have more of that with the Saints this season), Rattler can get… well, rattled at times when things start to collapse. He needs to work a bit on staying within himself and the structure of the play for that split second longer in the pocket so he can take advantage of the reads and routes that are available.

Overall, Rattler did a lot to prove that the NFL underestimated him throughout the draft process. It remains to be seen whether he’ll get a legitimate shot to usurp Carr as the Saints’ starting quarterback. But if head coach Dennis Allen and his staff are tired of the same old, same old from Carr as the season progresses… well, don’t be surprised if something happens.