NFL Week 16 playoff and elimination scenarios

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A number of teams can clinch playoff spots this weekend, while a few more could be eliminated

Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season is underway.

And it started with a critical game for playoff implications.

The Los Angeles Rams hosted the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football, in a matchup of 7-7 teams. The game had significant playoff implications for both teams, as well as for some teams who were watching the game along with the rest of us. With the Rams winning that game, a few teams saw their fortunes change overnight.

As for how that game impacts the playoff chase, as well as the other playoff and elimination scenarios in the weekend ahead, let’s dive in.

Because there is a lot to get to.

NFC

Playoff-clinching scenarios

Three teams — the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Philadelphia Eagles — have clinched already. One team can join them this weekend.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are the only team that can clinch a playoff spot this week in the NFC. There are a few different ways they can clinch a spot. With a win over the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit clinches the division, and thus a playoff spot.

However, they can still clinch a spot — just not the division — regardless of how they fare against Minnesota. With a Seattle Seahawks loss or tie to the Tennessee Titans, the Lions are in. They could also have gotten in if the Rams lost or tied with the Saints on Thursday night, but the Rams’ win eliminated that pathway.

First-round bye scenario

San Francisco 49ers

It is worth mentioning that the San Francisco 49ers can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs this weekend. If the 49ers beat the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night, they have a chance. But they would need: The Philadelphia Eagles to lose to the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys to lose to the Miami Dolphins, AND the Detroit Lions to lose to the Minnesota Vikings.

If all four results go their way, they will have the top spot clinched.

Elimination scenarios

Two teams are facing playoff elimination this week in the NFC. In addition, the Vikings are knocked out of title contention in the North with a loss or a tie against the Detroit Lions. As for the teams purely facing elimination, here are the two.

Chicago Bears

The Bears can be eliminated from the playoffs this week via a few different pathways. The first six start with a Chicago loss to Arizona. Should the Bears lose, they would be eliminated with:

A Seahawks win or tie against the Titans and a Vikings win or tie against the Lions, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Packers win or tie against the Panthers, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Buccaneers win or tie against the Jaguars, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie and a Vikings win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie and a Packers win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie and a Giants win against the Eagles

There are also 15 different combinations — all beginning with the Bears finishing tied with Arizona — where Chicago could be eliminated. If that game ends in a tie, the Bears would be out with:

A Vikings win and a Rams win (which happened Thursday night), OR
A Vikings win, a Buccaneers win, and a Falcons win, OR
A Vikings win and a Seahawks win, OR
A Vikings tie, a Packers tie, and a Rams win, OR
A Vikings tie, a Packers tie, a Buccaneers win, and a Falcons win, OR
A Vikings tie, a Packers tie, and a Seahawks win, OR
A Packers win and a Rams win, OR
A Packers win, a Buccaneers win, and a Falcons win, OR
A Packers win and a Seahawks win, OR
A Seahawks win and a Rams win, OR
A Seahawks win, a Buccaneers win, and a Falcons win

New York Giants

There are, according to NFL Playoff Scenarios, 43 different ways the Giants can be eliminated. For ease of reference, we will outline the simplest paths to elimination for Big Blue. You can see all 43 ways here.

All of these scenarios begin with a Giants loss to the Eagles on Christmas Day. Then the Giants would be eliminated with:

A Seahawks win or tie and a Vikings win or tie, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Packers win or tie, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Buccaneers win or tie, OR
A Seahawks win or tie, a Falcons win, and a Bears win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie and a Vikings win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie and a Packers win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie, a Falcons win, and a Bears win or tie, OR
A Buccaneers win or tie, a Falcons tie, and a Bears win, OR
A Vikings win or tie, a Packers win, a Falcons win, and a Bears tie, OR
A Packers win or tie, a Bears win, and a Falcons win

There are also pathways involving strength of schedule calculations, as well as pathways that begin with a Giants tie. Again, you can check those out at NFL Playoff Scenarios.

Eliminated teams

The Washington Commanders, the Carolina Panthers, and the Arizona Cardinals have already been eliminated.

AFC

Playoff-clinching scenarios

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens became the first AFC team to clinch a playoff spot last weekend. They can clinch the division with a win against the San Francisco 49ers, coupled with a Cleveland Browns loss or tie to the Houston Texans. Baltimore can also clinch the division with a tie against San Francisco, but only if the Browns lose to the Texans.

A few teams can join them this weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs can lockup the AFC West — and thus a playoff spot — depending on a few things this weekend. A win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day would clinch the division for them, and put the Chiefs in the playoffs. However, they can get in with just a tie against the Raiders, provided the Denver Broncos lose to the New England Patriots on Christmas Eve.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins can also lockup a playoff spot this weekend. Their easiest path is a win on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, and they are in the playoffs. There are also five different ways the Dolphins can clinch a playoff spot with a tie against Dallas. Should that game end in a tie, then they would be in if:

The Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, OR
The Cincinnati Bengals lose or tie to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts lose or tie to the Atlanta Falcons, OR
The Bengals lose or tie and the Houston Texans lose or tie to the Cleveland Browns, OR
The Texans lose and the Colts lose, OR
The Browns lose and the Colts lose or tie

Miami can also clinch the AFC East this week with a win and a Buffalo Bills loss or tie against the Los Angeles Chargers. They can also clinch the division with a tie against Dallas, but only if the Bills then lose to the Chargers.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a number of ways to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, all of which begin with a win against the Texans. Here are the possibilities, starting with a Browns win plus:

A Broncos loss or tie, a Colts loss or tie, a Bills loss, and a Dolphins loss or tie, OR
A Steelers loss or tie, a Broncos loss or tie, a Colts win, and a Jaguars loss, OR
A Steelers loss or tie, a Broncos loss or tie, a Dolphins win or tie, and a Bills loss, OR
A Steelers loss or tie, a Broncos loss or tie, a Dolphins win or tie, and a Colts loss, OR
A Steelers loss or tie, a Broncos loss or tie, a Dolphins win or tie, and a Jaguars loss, OR
A Steelers loss, a Bills loss, a Dolphins win or tie, a Colts win, and a Jaguars win, OR
A Steelers loss, a Bills loss, a Chiefs win, a Colts win, and a Jaguars loss, OR
A Steelers tie, a Bills loss, a Colts win, and a Jaguars loss

Easy enough.

Elimination scenarios

As noted above, we are focusing on straight playoff elimination, and not on seeding. Again, if you want to dive into more scenarios we highly recommend NFL Playoff Scenarios. There you can learn how the Broncos, Bills, and Browns can be eliminated in their respective divisions, as well as how numerous teams can be eliminated from the top-overall seed.

Las Vegas Raiders

At the outset, the Raiders are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs on Christmas Day. However, they can also be eliminated if they tie the Chiefs, in the following scenarios:

A Bengals win and a Bills win, OR
A Bengals win, a Jaguars win, and a Colts win or tie, OR
A Bengals win, a Jaguars win, and a Texans win or tie, OR
A Bengals win, a Colts win, and a Texans win, OR
A Bengals win, a Jaguars win, and a Colts win or tie, OR
A Bills win, a Jaguars win, and a Texans win or tie, OR
A Bills win, a Colts win, and a Texans win, OR
A Jaguars win, a Colts win, and a Texans win

Los Angeles Chargers

Yes, the Chargers are still technically alive. However, a loss to the Bills ends their season. In addition, a Jaguars win ends their season, no matter how the Chargers fare on Saturday.

Beyond that, there are almost 60 different scenarios where the Chargers can be eliminated, regardless of the result in their game against the Bills. If you want to see all 59 different ways the Chargers can be eliminated, NFL Playoff Picture has you covered, Mr. Staley.

Eliminated teams

The New England Patriots, the New York Jets, and the Tennessee Titans have all been eliminated.