Tommy Fleetwood poses for a photo with the Olympic rings at Le Golf National. | Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images
The Men’s Olympic Golf Competition kicks off Thursday at Le Golf National in Paris; here are the latest odds and predictions.
Some of the best players in the world have arrived in Paris for the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition, a 72-hole stroke-play event featuring 60 golfers.
This tournament is smaller than a PGA Tour Signature Event, but its significance carries greater weight, especially for Matthieu Pavon and Victor Perez, the two Frenchmen in the field. Other top players include Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm, as eight of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) will tee it up in Paris this week.
On the other hand, 25 players in this week’s field at Le Golf National, the site of the 2018 Ryder Cup, have an OWGR ranking of 100 or higher, meaning the competition is quite top-heavy. But anything can happen in golf, especially in a limited-sized field with fewer variables.
Olympics Men’s Golf Odds
Here are the latest odds for players to win this year’s competition at Le Golf National, courtesy of DraftKings:
Scottie Scheffler +330
Xander Schauffele +600
Rory McIlroy +750
Jon Rahm +1000
Collin Morikawa +1000
Ludvig Åberg +1200
Tommy Fleetwood +1800
Joaquin Niemann +2200
Viktor Hovland +2500
Tom Kim +2500
Shane Lowry +2500
Corey Conners +3000
Alex Noren +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Sepp Straka +4000
Byeong Hun An +4500
Min Woo Lee +5000
Jason Day +5500
Thomas Detry +5500
Wyndham Clark +6000
Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images
The 8th green at Le Golf National.
Predictions and Insight for Le Golf National
Frenchman among Top 10 picks we love
In his session with the media ahead of this week’s competition, Matthieu Pavon spoke about the significance of winning a gold medal and what it would mean for him to capture one in his home country.
“After a few days in the Olympic Village, the Opening Ceremony in Paris with all the crowds in front of the Eiffel Tower, and all the great moments we spent the last few days, it really feels like a Gold Medal would now be ranked higher than a major for me,” Pavon said.
“It’s an amazing opportunity for us. We usually represent ourselves and now it’s something just bigger.”
Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images
Matthieu Pavon during a practice round.
Since winning the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in dramatic fashion in January, Pavon has notched three top-5 finishes, which includes a solo fifth result at the U.S. Open. But he also has four missed cuts dating back to The Players Championship in mid-March. Nevertheless, Pavon will rely on his ball-striking to post a top 10 finish in his home country this week. His passion for his native France is second to none, so we like Pavon at +360.
Alex Noren and Corey Conners are two other players we like to finish among the top 10. Both players are priced at +175, and both have shown tremendous consistency throughout the season. Noren, currently ranked 24th on DataGolf, recently tied for 10th at the Scottish Open and 13th at The Open. Conners, meanwhile, has not missed a cut in 2024 and ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green. The Canadian would have fared better than a T-25 at Royal Troon, but a third-round 80 in harsh conditions ultimately sealed his fate.
Luck of the Irish
We like Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy to finish among the top five at Le Golf National this week.
Lowry put in a strong performance at Royal Troon, but The Postage Stamp did him in on Saturday, as he wound up finishing in solo sixth. The man from County Offaly is one of the more accurate players on the PGA Tour, and he also ranks 10th in strokes gained approaching the green, two attributes that will suit him well at Le Golf National. A top-5 finish for Lowry is currently listed at +400.
Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images
Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy during a practice round ahead of the 2024 Olympic Golf Competition.
McIlroy, meanwhile, looked lost at Royal Troon, missing the cut by five shots. But before that, the Ulsterman posted seven straight top-15 finishes, which includes his two wins in New Orleans and Charlotte.
McIlroy will bounce back this week and finish in the top-5 at +130.
Scottie Scheffler’s price too high
Once again, Scottie Scheffler arrives at a tournament as the odds-on favorite. He is still the top-ranked player in the world despite Schauffele winning two of the last three majors. But Scheffler’s +360 price to win and a preposterous -400 price to finish among the top 10 is not worth the gamble. It simply does not yield a return. If you take Scheffler, however, you might as well take him to win, which is never a bad pick, considering he has already captured six victories this season.
Four Winners
One of these four players will take home the Gold Medal in Paris this week: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800), Collin Morikawa (+1000), Jon Rahm (+1000), or the reigning gold medalist, Xander Schauffele (+600).
At the 2018 Ryder Cup, Fleetwood posted a remarkable 4-1-0 record against the Americans, helping lead Team Europe to another dominant victory on their home turf. Fleetwood also won the 2017 French Open at Le Golf National, so he will undoubtedly begin this competition with plenty of confidence.
Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images
Tommy Fleetwood celebrates Europe’s win at the 2018 Ryder Cup.
The Englishman has also had a solid 2024 campaign, recording three top 10s this season. He did have a disappointing early exit at Royal Troon two weeks ago, but Fleetwood will bounce back.
Morikawa, meanwhile, has turned things around dramatically since his strong showing at Augusta National. He has not finished outside the top 25 since then, and a Gold Medal would serve as the highlight of his season. He has played well in each of the four majors but has fallen short each time. He’s due for a big win.
Much unlike Morikawa, Rahm has struggled at numerous points during the majors but finally put together a strong showing at The Open. He parlayed that with his first LIV Golf win of his career last week in Great Britain, so we expect Rahm to continue to play well this week in France. When Rahm is on, he is hard to beat, and it seems like he has re-discovered his form for the first time since joining the Saudi-backed circuit.
And then there is Schauffele, the now two-time major champion who put together a round for the ages on Sunday at Royal Troon. He hit seemingly every single shot long and straight, avoiding the pot bunkers and making birdies with ease. His final-round 65 will live in Open lore forever, and remarkably, Schauffele has entered the Player of the Year conversation with Scottie Scheffler thanks to his two major titles. Another Gold Medal could tip the scale in his favor, which is certainly a real possibility.
Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.
