We break down everything you need to know about the Big Ten championship game, which will have serious College Football Playoff implications.
The Big Ten Championship has officially arrived, as the No. 1 Oregon Ducks will take on the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions in a game that has significant College Football Playoff implications.
Oregon is looking to complete an undefeated season and earn the No. 1 overall seed, while also being the lone team in the playoff field to go without a loss this season.
On the other hand, Penn State is looking to pull off a major upset in its biggest test yet, hoping to exploit the Ducks’ flaws and steal the No. 1 overall seed away from Oregon as the Big Ten conference champion.
In a game that should be tightly contested, what will be some of the top matchups to watch?
Abdul Carter vs. Oregon OL
Penn State outside linebacker/edge rusher Abdul Carter is one of the most talented players in the country and is currently projected as a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
After being used in more of a hybrid role over the past two seasons, Carter transitioned to being more of a true edge rusher this year, as 85.7 percent of his snaps came along the defensive line on the outside.
As a result, he put together his most productive season yet, accumulating 45 pressures and 10 sacks in a monster year for Penn State, while also being a good edge-setter with 36 stops.
Carter had six games with at least four pressures this season, ending the year with a win rate of 21.6 percent.
Getting pressure on quarterback Dillon Gabriel will be key on Saturday, as the signal-caller sees his numbers drastically drop when under pressure.
In a clean pocket, Gabriel has completed a whopping 79.9 percent of his passes this season, while averaging nine yards per attempt and throwing for 19 touchdowns as opposed to four interceptions.
However, when facing pressure, Gabriel’s completion rate plummets to 48.8 percent as he looks more downfield with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards.
Gabriel has been strong against the blitz, completing over 70 percent of his passes, while having a 12:2 touchdown-interception rate, so the pass rush will need to come from rushing four. That places a bigger emphasis on Carter and his ability to rush the passer, as Oregon’s offensive line will have a tough matchup ahead of them on Saturday.
Tyler Warren vs. Oregon secondary
Tight end Tyler Warren has been a positional mismatch for opponents all year long as arguably the best tight end in the country.
Racking up 81 catches for 976 yards and eight touchdowns thus far in 2024, Warren has easily led the Nittany Lions in all receiving categories, serving as quarterback Drew Allar’s clear No. 1 target.
For reference, Penn State’s next receiver, Harrison Wallace III, has 35 catches on the year.
At 6’6”, 257 pounds, Warren moves very fluidly and has great hands at the position, while even taking some touches on the ground, rushing for 189 yards and four touchdowns off 21 carries.
Warren lines up all over the field, seeing 46.5 percent of his snaps in the slot, 35.4 percent as an in-line tight end, and even 12.7 percent of his snaps out wide as a receiver.
While his average depth of target is just 6.4 yards per target, in part due to his usage all over the field, he’s a yards-after-the-catch machine, averaging over seven per reception in 2024.
Warren has just one drop this season, despite the volume, so he’s a sure-handed threat as a receiver for Penn State, and will be the top matchup to watch for Oregon in the passing game.
The Ducks have a good secondary, spearheaded by top cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, as each of their top four cornerbacks have allowed a completion rate of under 60 percent, as well as a passer rating under 82.3 this season.
Oregon has the eighth-best pass defense in the nation, allowing just 171.8 yards per game through the air, so this matchup should be a fun one to watch, and could very well be a key to whoever wins on Saturday.
Run game vs. Front 7
While both of these teams have different offensive approaches, they’re at their best when they can effectively run the football on offense.
Oregon has running back Jordan James, who has rushed for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry this season, while catching 21 passes for 182 yards as well.
Meanwhile, Penn State has an elite duo of running backs with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. Allen has gotten more volume, rushing for 698 yards and five touchdowns, albeit on 4.4 yards per carry. On the other hand, Singleton has been the more explosive back, going for 733 yards and seven touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry.
Penn State throws out a lot of looks in the run game offensively, as quarterback Drew Allar, as well as tight end Tyler Warren are run threats to complement the lead duo, giving defenses fits on the ground.
In a game as important as Saturday’s, both teams will look to establish the run, and they’ll also face two of the best fronts in college football.
Penn State has been stout against the run all year long, ranking sixth in the FBS by allowing just 97.2 yards per game on the ground, while Oregon isn’t too far behind, ranking 23rd in the country by allowing 118.2 rushing yards per game.
Both teams have NFL-caliber players along their front seven, which will be crucial to stopping the run on Saturday. Even with their different offensive approaches, it feels like the team that is able to set up the run more will come out the victor and the Big Ten champion.
Much is on the line Saturday, as the Ducks are currently 3.5-point favorites over the Nittany Lions. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, with the Big Ten Championship, and potentially even the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, on the line.
