How much will Russell Wilson’s contract be in 2025?
It wasn’t too long ago that Russell Wilson was an albatross to the Denver Broncos and they benched him in order to not have to pay him more money in the future. Now after a redemptive season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wilson is in line to cash in again.
Wilson is already the fourth-highest paid player in NFL history and even a mediocre deal would allow him to pass Tom Brady for third on the list.
But how do you establish a market value for Wilson, a player who was paid the league’s minimum salary by the Steelers in 2024 while his former team foot the bill? Do you go off his previous contract, which the Broncos were willing to eat just to get rid of him, or do something else?
Comparable ceilings for a new Russell Wilson contract
Let’s start with Wilson’s age. The QB just turned 36 this season, so he won’t be signing a long-term extension at the top of the market like the guys in their 20s did over the past few offseasons. He’s more in line with deals for Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins. None of them are in the top 10 in terms of average compensation per year.
Russell Wilson’s 2022 deal
- Age at signing: 34
- Length: Five years
- Average money: $48.5 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $124 million (first three seasons)
- Additional info: Broncos also sent trade compensation to Seahawks
- 2021 stats: 64.8% completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 222.4 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)
Matthew Stafford’s 2022 deal
- Age at signing: 34
- Length: Four years
- Average money: $40 million/season ($44.5 million/year first two seasons)
- Fully guaranteed: $63 million (first two years $89 million)
- Additional info: $57 million rolling guarantee in 2023 offseason for 2024 season
- 2021 stats: 67% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt, 287.4 yards per game, 102.8 rating
Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 deal
- Age at signing: 39
- Length: Three years
- Average money: $37.5 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $75 million (first two years)
- Additional info: Jets had to send trade compensation to Green Bay
- 2022 stats: 64.6% completions, 6.8 yards per attempt, 217.4 yards per game, 91.1 rating (MVP in 2020 and 2021)
Kirk Cousins’ 2024 deal
- Age at start of season: 36
- Length: Four years
- Average money: $45 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $90 million (first two years)
- Additional info: Was the only one of the three who who signed as a free agent
- 2023 stats: 69.5% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 291.4 yards per game, 103.8 rating (only played 8 games due to Achilles injury)
Russell Wilson’s current numbers
- Age at signing: 36
- 2024 stats (as of this writing): 64.7% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt, 239 yards per game, 103 rating
Potential takeaways from the four contracts
Wilson’s 2024 numbers line up with those other older quarterbacks, so if you take these four contract details and piece them together, you’re looking at two years guaranteed at around $40-$45 million per year with one or two team option years tacked on the end. It may tick slightly higher on average since, like Cousins, Wilson will be potentially hitting the free-agent market.
Let’s also be incredibly clear — the only deal on this list that worked out for the team that signed it was the Stafford deal. To get there, the Rams had to live through a very down 2022 season, too.
Comparable floors for a new Russell Wilson contract
Wilson is going to be signed to start somewhere, so that takes the ultra-low dollars off the table. That establishes his absolute floor at Jacoby Brissett bridge quarterback level of $8 million, but we aren’t even going to break that out because it’s unrealistically low.
Geno Smith’s 2023 deal
- Age at signing: 33
- Length: Three years
- Average money: $25 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $27.3 million (first year only)
- Additional info: Played in 2022 on a one-year, $3.5 million deal in Seattle.
- 2022 stats: 69.8% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 251.9 yards per game, 100.9 rating
Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal
- Age at start of season: 36
- Length: One season
- Average money: $35 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $35 million
- Additional info: He was already signed for 2022, so this contract added a fully guaranteed 2023 year, ostensibly making it a two-year, $70 million fully guaranteed contract.
- 2021 stats: 66.3% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 263.8 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)
Potential takeaways from the two contracts
Smith coming off his own reclamation project in Seattle wanted to stick around in 2023, especially because there was ample opportunity in the NFL Draft for teams to select QBs. Three of the top four picks were quarterback while another was taken 33 overall. This firmly established the middle class of quarterbacks, a place into which Baker Mayfield has subsequently slotted but he’s much younger.
With the Cousins deal, he wasn’t a true free agent and he was looking for multiple years of fully guaranteed money. A two-year, $70 million deal for Wilson would probably make the new team pretty happy.
That makes the absolute floor for Wilson the Smith contract at $25 million per season, but with Wilson’s much more established track record, I think it’s reasonable to think he’s going to make at least Cousins/Vikings money.
What is the quarterback market going to look like?
The QB market this offseason is going to be absolutely fascinating.
Which teams could be on the starting QB-needy list?
- New York Jets
- New York Giants
- Cleveland Browns
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers- Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco 49ers
Lets say the 49ers are okay keeping Brock Purdy despite his down year and the Panthers stick with the glimpses they have seen from Bryce Young. Aaron Rodgers has said he wants to be back and with the Jets, but their situation is so up in the air, I want to keep them on here.
2025 NFL Draft prospects at quarterback
In 2024, the NFL Draft saw multiple players taken in the top 12 picks but in 2025, the NFL Draft looks pretty slim. There may only be one QB taken in the first round, so if teams want a new quarterback, they will have to look at free agents.
With six teams looking for a starting quarterback with one NFL Draft prospect capable of stepping into the role (and it’s going to be argued he needs some seasoning, anyway).
2025 NFL free agent quarterbacks class
There will be at least some competition on the free agent market alongside Wilson. If the Jets need a quarterback, Aaron Rodgers were theoretically be available after a release, so we are going to put him on here. Some really interesting starting-level options here.
Here are the current free agents plus Rodgers:
- Aaron Rodgers
- Sam Darnold
- Justin Fields
- Joe Flacco
- Jameis Winston
- Jimmy Garoppolo
You could also see a Kirk Cousins on the trade market alongside Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew, or Aiden O’Connell.
On this list, who would you take over the way Wilson has played in 2024? The list probably starts and ends with Darnold in Minnesota’s QB-friendly system with three outstanding receiving weapons and a running game.
Contract projection for Russell Wilson in the 2025 offseason
Three years, $135 million
Including two years, $95 million guaranteed
This is higher than I was expecting to go when I started writing this article, but I think the lack of medium-end starters in the draft and free agent markets is going to work in Wilson’s favor and he’s going to be the cream of the crop.
The Steelers have plenty of cap space to get this done because they were prepping their roster for an eventual Kenny Pickett extension after drafting him high and then they only paid Wilson $1.2 million in 2024. If these two sides can come together on language, it feels like a no-brainer.
Wilson visited with the Giants in the 2024 offseason and if Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are given another year, they’ll want an established starter. The same can be said for Tom Telesco and the las Vegas Raiders, though they may have a longer time horizon on desperation with Tom Brady stepping into an organizational role.
The $95 million guaranteed would eventually put him over $400 million for his career, and into at least third place on the career earning list behind Rodgers and Stafford. Cousins is nipping at his heels at the moment.
It’s clear he is going to have suitors this offseason and will cash in.
