Ranking the WNBA’s 12 teams by their 2024 championship chances

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The WNBA is back. Let’s rank every team by their chances of winning the championship.

The 2024 WNBA season is set to restart after a lengthy Olympic and All-Star Break, a layoff that feels even longer than the month taken. In one of the most anticipated and tightly contested seasons in W history, much is still up in the air as we hit the back third of the schedule.

How will the break impact the title race? Will teams that had most if not all of their players back in market fare better or see a boost in play immediately out of the gates?

Here’s how the WNBA stands with respect to the Championship race as the season starts back up.

12. Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks are in the midst of a rebuild, and this 12th spot will undersell their competitiveness. They’ve given the best teams in the league a run for their money, including two wins over the Las Vegas Aces.

Dearica Hamby’s All-WNBA caliber, career-year is propelling this group, and the growth of youth down roster has impressed. Rickea Jackson takes another step as a player every other week, and has the makings of a future All-Star. Rae Burrell and Li Yueru have both shown flashes of their potential in expanded run. Aari McDonald has put together the best stretch of her young career, recapturing some of the offensive oomph she showed in college.

However, along with that youth comes inconsistency. The defensive output of this group is never in question, but easy offense does not come easy to the Sparks.

With Azura Stevens back in the fold for four games before the break, averaging 15 points and 9 boards, this group could play themselves into a higher position.

11. Washington Mystics

The Washington Mystics do not play like a team with their record, 6-7 after a franchise worst start. Washington is in every game, rarely blown out, and riding a solid defensive infrastructure. Of note, the Mystics are No. 6 in offensive efficiency over that stretch in the WNBA, crucial in winning some of those tight games they’ve been in all year.

Ariel Atkins has quietly played some of the best basketball of her career after a slower start to the year. Her two-player game with Stefanie Dolson, a pick and pop threat at the five, has led to one of the most productive stretches she’s ever had as a pick and roll scorer and playmaker.

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough is found her footing in late June and has looked like a legit candidate for Sixth Player of the Year since, contributing as one of the most well rounded reserves in the W.

Considering Karlie Samuelson played just five of those 13 games, Brittney Sykes just 15 minutes, and Shakira Austin none … things could be looking up for a back half run from a feisty Mystics squad.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

10. Dallas Wings

This season has been a difficult one in Dallas: The projected starting lineup has played zero minutes together this year. Star forward Satou Sabally missed the first half of the season as she recovered from shoulder surgery. Pre-season breakout player, Jaelyn Brown, has played one game after cementing herself as a starter and suffering a facial injury and subsequent illness. Maddy Siegrist was on track for Most Improved Player prior to a broken finger that kept her sidelined after 13 games. Natasha Howard played just 6 games in May and June due to a foot injury.

Dallas is 4.5 games back from the Chicago Sky for the final playoff spot, and needs a significant turnaround over the final 15 games.

Ranked 12th in defensive efficiency, the Wings need to find a better foothold guarding their own basket, as they currently allow opposition to shoot 52.5% on two-pointers (dead last in the W). Arike Ogunbowale’s late game heroics have been there all year, as they have throughout her career, but ending possessions will be key to keep games close.

9. Atlanta Dream

The Atlanta Dream are too talented to be 1.5 games away from the 12th seed, made all the more disappointing when noting they don’t own their own first round pick in the upcoming 2025 WNBA Draft.

It has to be noted that star wing, Rhyne Howard, has played just 14 games, the Dream going a paltry 1-9 with Howard sidelined due to an ankle injury

Jordin Canada, slated to start at point guard after an off-season trade, has played in just 4 games. The vision with her on the court has been clear and a notable upgrade, but we also haven’t gotten to see her share the court with Howard.

With all that being said, it still stands out how the frontcourt hasn’t fit. Tina Charles, brought in as a free agent this off-season, has had a productive season, but she and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, an All-Star last year, have not fit together. Neither gets consistently guarded out beyond the arc, neither is truly a power forward on either end of the court, and that’s led to a demoted role for Parker-Tyus.

Allisha Gray has been the only true mark of consistency on this team. Injuries have hurt Atlanta, but they also have just not been up to the standard of what they should be, and that needs to change. This is more of a shot in the dark and hopeful projection rather than what’s been seen on court.

Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

8. Chicago Sky

While the Marina Mabrey trade is still fresh in the air, I also don’t expect the Sky to slide given the baseline production the team has shown. They will play defense, rebound, and do that over and over again for 40 minutes.

Chicago corrals 29.8 percent of all available offensive rebounds, the second highest mark in the WNBA behind the Wings.

Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso have both imposed their collective will on the paint, setting the tone on both sides of the court. What’s stood out with Reese is the continued growth and comfort on the offensive end as well. She’s continued to carve out a larger role as she’s grown more efficient as a finisher and attacking the rim, improving her patience and timing.

Chennedy Carter has been unleashed as one of the premier slashers in the league, playing off of and alongside Lindsay Allen. Carter is averaging 21.4 points per game as a starter while shooting a clean 51.7% from the floor.

It’s worth noting that Michaela Onyenwere is reportedly stepping into the starting lineup after the break: I love this change. She’s too good and multifaceted to not play more than she has, one of the benefits of a trade is her finding more playing time. The now projected starting lineup has played just eight minutes together this season per PBP Stats. Replacing Mabrey’s spacing and shooting is not going to happen, but will the Sky find a new dimension after the break?

7. Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Fever are 10-7 since the start of June, enduring an incredibly difficult May with nine games in two weeks. The Fever offense has clicked at a remarkably high level, built on the two-player game of Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, as well as the transition play that Clark has pressed with her playmaking: Only two players in the W have created 40 or more assists in transition this season, with Wings star Arike Ogunbowale at 47. Clark has 64 assists in transition, a mark only 5 players surpassed all of last season.

Boston has dominated in the post, while also improving significantly as a pick and roll player. Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring, an absolute flamethrower as she’s found herself as a hyperactive off-ball mover and scorer.

The 5 player lineup of Clark/Mitchell/Lexie Hull/NaLyssa Smith/Aliyah Boston has a +40.5 net rating in 45 minutes of play, largely coming in July. Have the Fever found their consistent 5th player to round out lineups?

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

6. Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury are one of the more compelling teams to think through this season. With a largely new roster and coaching staff, the direction is fresh. The offense at its best zips, and the spacing and collective ability to put the defense in a bind is stunning, particularly with Brittney Griner in the mix.

Kahleah Copper has been unlocked as a ball handler and creator in early offense, averaging a career-high 23.2 points per game. She is a legitimate down ballot MVP candidate.

When it clicks, the defense can swarm with length and speed. When it doesn’t, and even when it does, the Mercury can get outmuscled on the glass, 12th in the league in defensive rebound rate.

If they’re healthy and have their principles locked down, the Mercury are a fearsome opponent. I keep coming back to what they could look like in the postseason, but finding greater consistency in the remainder of the regular season is a must. Keep an eye on Kiki Herbert-Harrigan’s impact, as she had some big games in July and could fill a key void Phoenix has as a backup in the frontcourt.

5. Seattle Storm

The Storm have built a remarkably strong defensive foundation, 8-2 in their last 10 games and allowing just 92.2 points per 100 possessions over that time frame, the best defense in the league. Ezi Magbegor has a legitimately compelling case for Defensive Player of the Year, one of the very best rim protectors in the league, but also mobile and switchable out on the perimeter. Her communication and backline presence sets the tone.

Nneka Ogwumike has been an undoubtedly incredible addition to this team, the most efficient and effective scorer in the halfcourt, and a vital cog on defense.

Another key aspect of Seattle’s play of late: Jordan Horston.

With Horston entering the starting lineup at the start of that 10 game stretch, the Storm have a +15.4 net rating over 272 minutes of play, dominating on defense and slightly above league average offense.

While shooting and creating easy offense is a notable concern for the ceiling of this group, leaning into what they do best has made them even better. The backcourt duo of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Jewell Loyd will make the difference for this team. If they can find stability and consistency in shotmaking, I’ll feel much stronger about Seattle’s postseason potential.

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

4. Minnesota Lynx

I considered the Lynx for the 5th spot, considering that they’d just lost handily to the Storm prior to the break. However, it bears repeating that this is power rankings on championship contention, and I still feel firmly that the Lynx are jostling for that third spot as opposed to down at fifth.

They’re 3-1 on the year against the Storm even after the loss, and it’s worth noting that star forward Napheesa Collier didn’t play in that game due to injury. They’ve beaten both the Liberty and Aces, showing they’re capable of not just competing with, but beating the top of the league; they’re a legitimate title contender.

They’re the best defensive team in the league, and also on pace to set the single season team assist rate record, phenomenal at moving the ball. But, scoring efficiently in the halfcourt is something to track in the back end of the year: They’re just 5th in the league in halfcourt offensive efficiency per Synergy Sports, scoring .897 points per possession.

That’s a good mark, but one they’ll likely want to be better by the end of year.

3. Connecticut Sun

After a franchise-best start to the season and 18-6 record at the break, the Sun made a significant move by adding Sky guard Marina Mabrey. This team is clearly very good and has been the past few years, but after two close losses to the New York Liberty in a week, they went in to shore up weaknesses that have shown through.

Adding three-point shooting and some additional creation in the halfcourt is notable for a team that dominates in the paint and at the free throw line, but just 10th in the league in three point attempts, makes, and percentage.

The Sun’s defense is elite. Brionna Jones’ recovery from her achilles injury has been important in setting Connecticut apart from other playoff teams, key in the wins over the Lynx. They have the makings of a team that will get deep into the playoffs, but Mabrey’s addition could help push them further, and better round out some of their lineups.

With Alyssa Thomas fresh off her first Olympic appearance and a gold medal, Connecticut is all in on this season. The Sun have a relatively light August, only three of seven games against current playoff teams, before seven of their final nine games against playoff competition. We’re going to learn a lot about the Sun before the playoffs.

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2. Las Vegas Aces

Doubt the Aces at your own risk. The Aces stumbled out to a 6-6 start, understandably given Chelsea Gray’s absence as she recovered from injury. Gray returned to the Aces after they lost to the New York Liberty in a Finals rematch, and they’ve gone 10-2 since, playing excellent basketball with the 2nd best net rating in the league over that frame.

The lineup of Gray/Kelsey Plum/Jackie Young/Alysha Clark/A’ja Wilson has established itself as one of the very best in the league once again, ranking 3rd of 35 lineups that have played 50 or more minutes, dominating with a +24.8 net rating per WNBA.com/stats.

Las Vegas’ versatility is so impressive and difficult to contend with. Kiah Stokes is still the nominal starter and is key in certain matchups as a rebounder, cutter, and defender. Clark provides a fantastic small ball option at the 4. Jackie Young has taken another step as a player, a benefit borne out of the difficulty of injury.

Tiffany Hayes has added a different punch to this group on the wing, adding to the depth of this group, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Everything, however, hinges on the shoulders of star forward A’ja Wilson. She is the best player in basketball, a shoe-in for Most Valuable Player this season, and precisely why any doubts about Las Vegas early in the season were misplaced.

1. New York Liberty

The New York Liberty have the edge as the top team in the league, the only team to win 20+ games prior to the Olympic break. Since a 4-2 start, New York has gone 17-2. They’ve beaten all of the other teams in the top 6 of the playoff picture.

Jonquel Jones has been phenomenal this season, more consistently worked into the flow of the offense, and also taking a massive step as a playmaker, enjoying the best passing season of her career.

While Breanna Stewart’s shot from deep has been off for much of the year, the reigning MVP has dominated on defense and as an outlet scorer off of actions. It’s worth noting that she’s shooting 54.4% on two-pointers, the highest she has since her achilles injury in 2019.

Unequivocally, Sabrina Ionescu’s growth has been perhaps the most important aspect of New York taking another step in year two as a core. Ionescu has grown tremendously as a facilitator and on-ball scorer, much more patient in how she sets up and uses screens, and her refined floater opening up that much more for her inside the arc.

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton continues to set the tone for this group at the point of attack on either end, guarding on the ball, and slashing at a high level. Leonie Fiebich and Kayla Thornton have been two of the best reserves in the league and provided answers in closing lineups when New York pivots.

A matchup with the Las Vegas Aces on August 17th will be a must see.