Let’s rank the 16 teams still standing in the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament by their national championship chances.
The 2025 men’s NCAA tournament will certainly not go down in history for upsets and Cinderellas. The favorites held serve during the opening weekend of March Madness, setting up some high-powered matchups in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
All four No. 1 seeds are still dancing. Houston survived a late comeback bid by Gonzaga, while Florida needed star guard Walter Clayton Jr. to bail them out late against UConn in the round of 32. This was a season in college basketball where the best teams always felt a cut above the rest of the country. Could we see a Final Four entirely made up of No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008?
There’s worthy challengers all over the bracket. Alabama and BYU are bringing their high-powered offenses to a Sweet 16 showdown. Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, and Purdue are trying to give the Big Ten its first national championship since 2000. The SEC got seven teams through to the second weekend. The only double-digit seed still alive is John Calipari’s Arkansas squad, which hardly feels like an underdog.
Here’s how we’d rank the Sweet 16 at the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament by their national championship chances.
16. Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels proved that even the middle class of the SEC is good enough to make the second weekend of the tournament this year. Ole Miss entered its first round matchup as an underdog to North Carolina despite being a No. 6 seed to the Tar Heels’ 11-seed, but it essentially ran UNC off the floor in the first half to build enough cushion for the win. Their second round matchup against Iowa State flipped the script: the Rebels pulled away late with a balanced scoring attack to win in a rout, punching their first Sweet 16 ticket since 2001. Chris Beard’s team has an emerging senior star guard in Sean Pedulla, and Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield can fill it up, too. Just making the second weekend is incredible for Ole Miss. Now they have nothing to lose.
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15. Arkansas Razorbacks
John Calipari’s first year at Arkansas looked like a bust with a sub-.500 conference record and an offense that failed to rank in the top-70 in the country. Talent was never the problem for the Razorbacks, though, and they finally lived up to their pricey expectations at the best possible time. No. 10 seed Arkansas knocked off Kansas in its tournament opener, then shocked No. 2 seed St. John’s in another classic chapter of the Rick Pitino/Calipari rivalry. St. John’s had been able to out-hustle and out-muscle almost every opponent this year, but not against the Hogs. Arkansas’ quick guards dusted the Red Storm off the dribble while their big wings made shots and their bouncy bigs controlled the paint. Arkansas doesn’t make it pretty, but that’s just the way Calipari likes it. With million-dollar NIL contracts and several five-star recruits on the roster, this certainly doesn’t feel like a typical double-digit seed. In a season already stamped as a disappointment, Arkansas turned it on and earned a win to change the narrative forever.
14. Arizona Wildcats
Caleb Love has been one of the college basketball’s feast-or-famine players since he helped North Carolina get to the 2022 national championship game. He’s hot right now, and it has Arizona back into the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years. Love was draining shots all over the floor in the Wildcats’ round of 32 win over Oregon, proving he’s one of the most explosive scorers in the country when he’s on. The rest of the team is coming together: Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis provide supplemental scoring, Carter Bryant is an athletic defensive stopper, and Tobe Awaka is a force in the paint.
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13. Purdue Boilermakers
No Zach Edey, no problem for Purdue, who has advanced past of the first weekend of the tournament for the third time in the last four years. The Boilermakers rode their generational big man to a national title game appearance last year, and this season has proven this is still a damn good program without him. Braden Smith has taken an All-American leap by improving his scoring punch while retaining his pure point guard instincts. Trey Kaufman-Renn hammered an undersized No. 12 seed McNeese team inside in the round of 32 to continue his breakout junior year. The role players are all shooting the ball well, with a 38.3 percent mark from three-point range as a team that ranks top-15 in the country. Purdue is proving to be one of highest-floor programs around under Matt Painter. Leave the choker label in the past. The Boilermakers are organized, efficient, and tough on both ends. That’s a winning formula.
12. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan looked like it was slipping going into the postseason by losing its last three regular season games, but the Wolverines have been red hot ever since. Don’t tell head coach Dusty May it’s a curse to win your conference tournament. Michigan has kept the momentum going from its Big Ten tournament championship to force its way into the Sweet 16 with a convincing victory over No. 4 seed Texas A&M. Michigan is difficult to prepare for with 7-footers on both sides of the pick-and-roll. Jumbo point guard Danny Wolf paced the offense with 14 points, nine rebounds, and four assists against the Aggies, and teammate Vlad Goldin looked like the best player on the floor to finish with 23 points and 12 assists. The biggest news for Michigan might be getting junior wing Roddy Gayle Jr. going. Gayle had been struggling entering March Madness, but he scored 26 points off the bench by splashing 4-of-6 threes to give the Wolverines the extra offensive punch it needed. Michigan men’s basketball was a total disaster just last season during a nightmare 8-win campaign that saw Juwan Howard get fired. May has turned around this program in just one season. The Wolverines don’t seem ready to slow down any time soon.
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11. BYU Cougars
BYU hired former Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young as head coach after Mark Pope bolted for Kentucky over the offseason, and he’s immediately professionalized the program. The Cougars are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since Jimmer Fredette was on campus thanks to a high-powered offense that trashed Wisconsin at every opportunity in their round of 32 victory. BYU scored a scorching 1.28 points per possession with pace, ball movement, volume three-point shooting (12 makes at a 46.3 percent clip), and enough toughness to give a quality Big Ten opponent the conference’s first loss of this tournament. Tater-tot royalty Richie Saunders (25 points) brings so much gravity as a movement shooter, freshman Egor Demin (11 points, eight rebounds, eight assists) is playing his best ball of the season right now, and the bigs held their own on the glass. BYU is scary even before AJ Dybantsa enrolls next season. This feels like the start of what could be a great era of BYU hoops.
10. Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has felt like a different team this season when it has Lamont Butler on the floor, and the super-senior saved one of his best games for the round of 32 against Illinois. It was only two years ago that Butler was playing in the national championship game with San Diego State, and he used that experience to look like the most poised player on the floor in the Wildcats’ nearly wire-to-wire win over the Illini. Butler consistently got into the lane off the bounce to create shots for himself and his teammates, and his defense flustered Illinois’ talented young guards all night. Teammate Kobe Brea showed he’s more than just a spot-up shooter by hitting some tough shots inside the arc to finish with 23 points and six rebounds. Otega Oweh added 15 points for Kentucky in the win. The Wildcats might not have any top NBA prospects these days, but they space the floor, attack the opposition’s pressure points, and share the ball. Kentucky has the depth and size to play with almost anyone on its best night, and it put them into the Sweet 16 in the first year of Mark Pope’s tenure.
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9. Maryland Terrapins
Maryland lost three games at the buzzer this season, but they finally got one of their own at the best possible time. Down one with three seconds left to Colorado State in the round of 32, Derik Queen’s runner banked in to lift Maryland to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016. Queen showed off his credentials as a future NBA lottery pick by combining power and grace inside like few can. He’s the most talented member of the ‘Crab Five,’ but the entire lineup makes contributions. Julian Reese is just as good on the glass as his famous sister. Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel hit big shots on the wings, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie runs the show well at point guard. Florida is a massive test in the next round, but the Terps should feel confident their starting lineup can compete with anyone.
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech stamped out Drake’s Cinderella hopes by playing the type of big boy basketball the mid-majors just can’t compete with. The Red Raiders hit it big in the transfer portal this past offseason by landing big man JT Toppin from New Mexico once he withdrew from the NBA Draft. The sophomore looked unguardable in Texas Tech’s round of 32 win, going off for 25 points and 12 rebounds on 11-of-13 shooting. Wing Darrion Williams was every bit as good, adding 28 points, six rebounds, five assists, and two steals in the win. The Red Raiders have a group of talented shooters and ball handlers around their star big man, and they rarely turn the ball over. It has Grant McCasland in the Sweet 16 in his second season, and with a matchup against No. 10 seed Arkansas looming, the Red Raiders will be expected to take this run at least one step further.
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7. Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo once again has Michigan State peaking at the right time. The Spartans have won 10 of their last 11 games, and victories over No. 10 seed Bryant and No. 10 seed New Mexico punched their ticket to the second weekend. The Spartans’ hot streak started when Izzo finally inserted star freshman Jase Richardson into the starting lineup, but their round of 32 win against New Mexico proved the Spartans can succeed even when he has an off-night. Jaden Akins (16 points) and Tre Holloway (14 points) carried MSU while Richardson shot 1-for-10. The bracket is breaking well for the Spartans, at least until a potential Elite Eight matchup with Auburn. At 70 years old, Izzo is dreaming of making it back to the Final Four for the ninth time. This team just might be good enough to do it.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
Nate Oats led Alabama to its first ever Final Four last season, and it feels like he has an even more talented roster this season. The Crimson Tide play fast, attack the rim, and rip threes, and this time they have more size inside thanks to Rutgers transfer Cliff Omoruyi. The Crimson Tide were just too much for Saint Mary’s in the second round, showing off their superior size, athleticism and shooting to sprint back into the Sweet 16 without much drama. The Tide’s many weapons were on display, with Chris Youngblood (13 points on 3-of-3 shooting from deep), Aden Holloway (12 points), and Grant Nelson (12 points) all chipping in during the win. It wasn’t Mark Sears’ most efficient night (5-of-15 shooting for 12 points), and he’ll have to be better to keep up with BYU. The tests are only going to get tougher for ‘Bama, but the ceiling is almost as high as anyone’s.
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5. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is headed to their third-consecutive Sweet 16 after knocking off UCLA in a 67-58 win. The Volunteers sandwiched a pair of runs around halftime — an 8-0 run before the break and a 18-6 run coming out of halftime — en route to the win. Guard Chaz Lanier followed up his 29-point outing in Tennessee’s opening-round win over Wofford with 20 points against the Bruins, including knocking down four-of-five from beyond the arc. Lanier also set a new school record for made three-pointers in the process. Tennessee’s guard play — Lanier, Zakai Zeigler, and Jordan Gainey all finished in double digits against UCLA and accounted for 48 of the team’s 67 points — and experienced lineup will absolutely make them a factor in the Sweet 16 … and beyond.
4. Houston Cougars
Houston staved off a valiant comeback attempt by Gonzaga in their second round game, and the Cougars are headed to the Sweet 16 for the sixth consecutive time. That includes a run to the 2021 Final Four, that saw Houston lose to Baylor in the national semifinal. This Houston team is known for its defense, as the Cougars entered their game against Gonzaga ranked second nationally in opponent’s field goal percentage (38.1%) and first in the nation in both field goals allowed per game (19.5) and points allowed per game (57.9). Before Gonzaga, the last team to top 70 points against Houston was Texas Tech, which came in a loss to the Red Raiders back at the start of February.
Now they’ll get a Purdue offense that averages 77.8 points per game, ranking them 78th in the nation. Where the Boilermakers can possibly keep pace is if they shoot as well as they have been all season, as Purdue’s field goal percentage of 48.1% ranks them 12th in the nation, and they are one of the best from behind the arc, converting at a 38.34% clip.
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3. Auburn Tigers
Auburn was tracking as a historically strong No. 1 seed before losing three of their last four games heading into March Madness. Any concerns that this team may have lost what made it special sure look overblown now. The Tigers flexed their might in the second half against Creighton, showing off their depth and shot-making during a rare off night for superstar forward Johni Broome. With Broome limited to eight points against Ryan Kalkbrenner and the Creighton defense, freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford led the way with 23 points off the bench. Denver Jones (17 points) hit a critical and-one layup late, and Chad Baker-Mazara (15 points) played his typically steady two-way game on the wing. The Tigers have the bodies to slow down Michigan’s two skilled 7-foot stars in the Sweet 16, and they played the toughest schedule in the country to be ready for these moments. Bruce Pearl has the all the pieces he needs for Auburn’s first national championship.
2. Florida Gators
Florida emerged as this year’s trendiest national championship pick by tearing through the SEC tournament, but getting past Danny Hurley’s back-to-back defending champs in the round of 32 was never going to be an easy task. UConn had the Gators on the ropes until late into the second half, when Florida turned it on to bust into the Sweet 16 and again make its case that this is the best team in the country. Walter Clayton Jr. was the hero: his three-pointer put Florida ahead with just under three minutes left, and he followed it up with another deep dagger two minutes later to extend the Gators’ lead. If guard play wins in March, Florida’s trio of Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard is going to be tough to beat. Todd Golden went toe-to-toe with the best staff in America on UConn and came out on top. The Gators don’t have many holes to attack, and their best players are proving to be gamers. Anything less than a national title will feel like a disappoint.
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1. Duke Blue Devils
Duke’s talent advantage is evident from the second they walk onto the floor. Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach form a monster frontline with size and athleticism no opponent can match. Fellow freshmen Kon Knueppel is overqualified as a secondary option, showing the ability to splash shots from three and run action in the two-man game as a ball handler. It’s almost easy to forget about Duke’s decorated veteran guards, but Tyrese Proctor forced his way into focus with arguably the best game of his career in Sunday’s round of 32 win over Baylor. Proctor finished with 25 points on 7-of-8 shooting from three, which felt like the ultimate sign of Duke’s embarrassment of riches. Duke’s veteran role players like Sion James and Mason Gillis players fit perfectly around the core, always playing with energy, making the extra pass, and digging deep defensively. It feels like Duke’s best game is better than anyone else’s, and that’s why they’re on top of this list.
