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How likely are the Bears to pick at No. 1 and No. 2 in 2024 NFL Draft?
The Chicago Bears weren’t supposed to be the worst team in the NFL again this season. After finishing 3-14 a year ago as the team traded away its two best defensive players midseason in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, Chicago landed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, entered free agency with the most available cap space in the league, and set out to load up on talent around young quarterback Justin Fields.
The Bears decided not to pick at first overall, instead opting to trade the selection to the Carolina Panthers, who sent their No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, their first rounder in 2024, star wide receiver D.J. Moore, and additional draft assets.
Right now, that trade represents the franchise’s only hope to turnaround what is quickly becoming the most despondent situation in the NFL.
Just four games into the new year, Chicago’s season has already gone bust. The team is 0-4, and has already been out-scored by 62 points — only the New York Giants have a worse point differential. Dating back to last season, Chicago has now lost 14 straight games. Nothing has gone right for the Bears yet, and oh so many things have gone wrong.
Head coach Matt Eberflus is a lock to be fired — the only question is if he survives the season. Fields has regressed at quarterback, and has stopped using his dynamic running ability in an attempt to prove himself as a passer. The defense looks like the second worst unit in the NFL right now only behind a Broncos team that beat them last week. The only hope for this franchise comes from the 2024 NFL Draft.
There’s only one other winless team in the NFL through the first four weeks: the Carolina Panthers. Right now, the Bears would have the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in the draft. In our latest mock draft, our expert J.P. Acosta has Chicago taking USC QB Caleb Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
How likely is it that the Bears actually land the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft? Let’s dive in.
Chicago Bears’ odds at No. 1 NFL Draft pick, by the numbers
According to FTN Fantasy by Aaron Schatz, the Bears’ own pick has a 43.4 percent chance to land at No. 1 this season after their 0-4 start. The Panthers have the next best odds to pick at No. 1 with a 21.5 percent chance — and that pick is of course owed to the Bears.
Right now, Chicago has an astounding 64.9 percent shot at picking first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
FTN Fantasy
Chicago Bears’ remaining strength of schedule for 2023
Chicago has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, which could allow the team to win some games and blow their chance at picking No. 1.
Chicago’s remaining opponents entering Week 5 have a 42.3 percent winning percentage. That’s the seventh easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to Tankathon.
Has the same team ever had the first two picks in the draft?
Only one team has ever owned the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft in any of the four major American professional sports league. That would be the 1992 Indianapolis Colts. The 1992 Colts owned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick after trading QB Chris Chandler.
The Colts selected defensive end Steve Emtman and linebacker Quentin Coryatt with the top picks.
