The Bills needed Josh Allen to be David Simms, but he insisted on being Roy McAvoy

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How the film “Tin Cup” explains Josh Allen’s nightmare MNF showing vs. the Jets in Week 1.

The 1996 sports comedy Tin Cup tells the story of Roy “Tin Cup” McAvoy (portrayed by Kevin Costner), a down on his luck golfer who missed out on professional glory, and lives out his days as the owner of a rundown driving range in Texas. But his life changes when his former college teammate David Simms (played by Don Johnson), a star on the PGA Tour, invites him to participate in a charity event at a local course.

McAvoy believes pairing up with his former teammate and winning the tournament might be his shot at redemption. But Simms has another idea.

He wants McAvoy to carry his bag.

Embarrassed, but needing the gig, McAvoy agrees to caddy for Simms. But that goes awry when McAvoy recommends that Simms take an aggressive approach on a hole and attempt a long shot over a water hazard. Simms instead lays up, but goaded on by spectators and other golfers, McAvoy attempts the shot and puts it on the green.

And is promptly fired on the spot by Simms.

Dealing with further embarrassment, McAvoy decides to make it his quest to qualify for the U.S. Open. Long story short, he not just qualifies, but thanks to a record second round he makes the cut and is in contention on the final day, where he is paired with Simms.

At the start of the round, Simms tells McAvoy that he’d be happy with 18 pars on the day, a cautious approach that McAvoy brushes aside.

But on the 18th hole, a long Par 5, McAvoy was tied for the tournament lead with Peter Jacobsen, while Simms — thanks to a day with 17 pars already — was one shot back. The 18th hole featured a layout similar to the one at that charity match, with a long shot into the green forcing golfers to have to carry water. On his previous three rounds, McAvoy made the aggressive play to go for the green, and wound up in the water.

Both Simms and McAvoy stared at their options, and Simms ultimately decided to lay up, likely forgoing a shot at the Open title. McAvoy once again made the aggressive decision, and hit a beautiful 3-wood towards the pin. But a late gust of wind would be his undoing, and the ball rolled off the green and into the drink.

But he was not done.

Rather than taking his drop and saving par — which he had down already in the tournament — to force a playoff, McAvoy attempted that shot again. And again, and again. All to the collective groans of the crowd, and to the embarrassment of his caddy.

Down to his final ball, and staring a disqualification in the face, McAvoy attempted the shot one more time.

And it went in.

For a 12. A disastrous 12, but a legendary one at that.

Now let’s get to Josh Allen. Because on a night the Buffalo Bills needed him to be Davis Simms, Allen insisted on being Roy McAvoy.

The main story of the Bills’ season opener against the New York Jets was the early injury suffered by Aaron Rodgers, one that may have ended his season after just four plays. With Rodgers sidelined, and the Jets’ offense struggling to find any momentum with Zach Wilson now under center, the Bills just needed a football version of Simms. Fairways and greens, and 18 pars on the night.

Instead they got McAvoy.

A year after leading the league in turnovers with 19, Allen turned the ball over four times Monday night, including three in the second half. Those four turnovers match his career-high mark, set back in 2019 against the Jets. He finished the night completing 29-of-41 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown, along with three interceptions.

His fumble with under five minutes remaining allowed the Jets to take the lead on their ensuing possession, thanks to a field goal from Greg Zuerlein. Buffalo responded with a field goal of their own late in the fourth quarter to force overtime, and Allen had a few big plays on that drive to keep the Bills alive, but Buffalo would eventually lose in overtime on a punt return touchdown from rookie Xavier Gipson.

Suddenly the Bills, and Allen, were looking for answers.

“I hurt our team tonight. I cost our team tonight,” Allen said. “It feels eerily similar to last year, and I hate that it’s something I do.”

“It’s a long season in the NFL,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “And unfortunately, sometimes you have to be reminded of these things. And it hurts with a loss, right? And so, it’s a constant, constant reminder during the week of, ‘Hey, take care of the football — take the football away, that wins games when you do that.’ And in this case, it loses games.”

Allen pointed to his insistence on forcing the ball as the reason for the loss, and rewatching some of those turnovers, you can see exactly what he was talking about. On his first interception, which came on a 3rd-and-8 early in the second quarter, Allen flushes to his left before attempting an audacious throw deep downfield to Stefon Diggs, who might have a step on Sauce Gardner, but the cornerback has safety help in the form of Jordan Whitehead:

At the time this felt like an “arm punt,” but Breece Hall ripped off an 83-yard run on New York’s next play, and managed a field goal on their ensuing possession.

Allen’s second interception had a similar feel, as he tried to squeeze in a post route to Diggs between two safeties, as the Jets were playing with a pair of safeties deep:

Again it is Whitehead that pulls down the pass. All that is missing is Cheech Marin as a caddy standing next to him, begging him not to make the throw.

Allen’s third interception again found Whitehead, but this time it was more an example of the safety simply reading his eyes. The Bills run a Flat-7 Smash concept to the right side of the formation, with Gabriel Davis running the corner route and tight end Dalton Kincaid releasing to the flat. Gardner does a good job of relating to the flat route but then reading Allen’s eyes and breaking under the corner route, but there is still a window for Allen to hit Davis.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Whitehead closes that window in a flash:

The Jets would capitalize on the turnover, scoring their only offensive touchdown of the night on their ensuing possession.

Then when the Bills got the ball back, Allen coughed it up, giving it right back to the Jets:

All told, the Jets scored on their ensuing possession following three of Allen’s four turnovers, accounting for 13 of their 22 points on the night.

Difficult to win games that way.

While one might point to the Jets’ defense as being the main reason for those turnovers, consider these numbers:

There is a certain duality to Allen. He is such an athletic quarterback, and has such an incredible arm, that there are times when he can roll to his left and uncork an audacious throw across his body 50 yards downfield, and manage to see Diggs settle under the throw for a touchdown.

Then there are times like that first interception, where that throw finds one of the two defenders lurking in the area.

That duality was a theme in Tin Cup, where McAvoy’s brilliant ball-striking skills created a moment like his final shot at that fictitious U.S. Open, where he holed out from over 200 yards away.

But his insistence on making the aggressive decision cost him a chance at the win.

Monday night the Bills did not need McAvoy. They needed Simms. They needed 18 pars to give themselves a chance at victory against a Jets team that was struggling on offense.

But McAvoy is what they got, and now the Bills are 0-1 with a loss in the division.

And Allen knows that.

“Trying to force the ball,” Allen said of his turnovers after the game. “Same s—, same place, different day.”

Perhaps where the analogy ultimately falls short is here: In today’s NFL you need to take those risks to win. After all, when Simms layed up on 18 he cost himself a shot at the tournament. Part of what has made Allen one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and most dynamic players, is his willingness to take those risks. He has the athleticism, and the arm talent, to make those plays work at times.

Yet, he needs to pick his spots better. Monday night was not one of those nights to take risks.

It was a night to be David Simms, not Roy McAvoy.