The Falcons have a Kirk Cousins problem

The Atlanta Falcons are in danger of fumbling away a weak division, and it might result in an early termination of the Kirk Cousins era.

Just one month ago, the Atlanta Falcons looked to be sailing to their first NFC South title since reaching the Super Bowl in 2016. They were sitting atop the division at 6-3, two games ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and virtually three games up with the head-to-head tiebreaker.

These are the Atlanta Falcons. What did you think was going to happen?

What was once a comfortable lead in a mediocre (at best) division has dramatically evaporated thanks to three straight losses, the latest of which was a 17-13 home defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers. By far the most concerning development has been the detrimental play of quarterback Kirk Cousins, who gifted the Chargers their only touchdown through this lollipop of a pick-six to rookie Tarheeb Still.

Coming out of a bye week, Cousins threw four interceptions, all in Chargers territory. As bad as the pick-six was, perhaps his worst throw of Sunday afternoon was this brutal red-zone loft where there were five Chargers defenders to only two Falcons receivers.

During Atlanta’s losing streak, Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns to six interceptions and now leads the NFL with 13 picks. He also leads the NFL with 11 fumbles, although somehow he’s only lost two.

Having endured the trio of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke as starting quarterbacks over the past two seasons, the Falcons made Cousins their marquee free agent signing with a four-year, $180 million contract. With talented skill position players like running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts on the offense, having a quality veteran quarterback in Cousins seemed like a logical move for a team looking to contend right away. But there was always the risk of the 36-year-old Cousins being damaged goods after his ruptured Achilles prematurely ended his Minnesota Vikings career. The Falcons surely had that in mind when they drafted former Washington Huskies star Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick.

The cold, hard truth is that Atlanta’s offense has struggled to consistently function with Cousins outside of the Buccaneers, who allowed eight touchdowns and over 800 yards passing through two games, or to put it another way:

Of course, Atlanta has other issues aside from Cousins, most notably (again) the lack of a pass rush that ranks a distant last in sacks and near the bottom in pressure rate. Cousins was supposed to elevate the Falcons offense to a high enough level to overcome the problems on defense and make them competitive with just about anyone in the NFL. It hasn’t quite materialized as desired.

While the advanced stats show a slightly above-average offense by DVOA (13th) and EPA/play (15th), they’re 19th in points scored, 23rd in third-down conversions, and 25th in red zone touchdown rate. The Chargers loss marked the fourth time the Falcons have failed to score more than one offensive touchdown, and the seventh time Atlanta has been held under 20 offensive points. When Cousins is good, he looks like he’s worth his contract. When he’s bad, he performs like a career backup.

Cousins’ stats in wins: 144/205 (70.2%) for 1,711 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 lost fumble
Cousins’ stats in losses: 125/194 (64.4%) for 1,341 yards, 3 TDs, 11 INTs (a league-leading 7 INTs in the 4th quarter), 1 lost fumble

Five of Cousins’ six losses have come against teams with pass defenses currently in the top 12 by DVOA (as of Week 13), whereas four of his six wins are against the bottom 12 DVOA pass defenses. Perhaps most concerning is his lack of mobility and how it relates to play-action passing. According to NFL Pro, Cousins was first in play-action rate with the Vikings in 2023, but ranks 33rd out of 34 QBs under Falcons OC Zac Robinson.

At Sunday’s postgame press conference, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris shut down the idea of starting Penix Jr, who’s lone appearances came in blowout losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos.

“I don’t think that’s not going to be the issue around here,” Morris said when asked if he’s going to stick with Cousins at quarterback. “That guy has carried us. That guy has got us to the point where we are 6-6 and in first place in the division. We’ve still got everything in front of us despite what happened today. It’s up to us to bounce back and find a way to win football games. There isn’t a better man than [Cousins] to go do that for us.”

If Cousins is to salvage a sinking season, it’s probably not happening Week 14, when the Falcons are scheduled to face the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings in his return to Minneapolis. Minnesota boasts the No. 1 defense by DVOA and leads the NFL with 18 interceptions. With the Buccaneers hosting the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta may find itself out of first place (and therefore out of a playoff spot) by the end of this weekend. While the Falcons have enough other favorable matchups left on their schedule to stumble across the finish line as NFC South winners, it’s far from a guarantee they’ll be able to hold off a Bucs team whose only remaining above .500 opponent is the Chargers.

Failing to win a weak division as heavy favorites may be enough for Atlanta to close the curtains on the Kirk Cousins experience in 2025. Should Cousins continue to play poorly, perhaps there’s a chance the start of the Penix era will come even sooner than that.