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The New York Jets are built on hypotheticals. But it might just work.
As someone who loves chaos, the New York Jets fascinate me.
Before the 2023 season, excitement was through the roof. Aaron Rogers came over from the Green Bay Packers, becoming the second in a not very long, but funny when you think about it, trend of former Packers QBs wearing a Jets helmet. Training camp clips of Rogers threading passes to WR Garrett Wilson flooded the timeline, and they were a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl.
Four plays into the opening game, that dream was dashed. Rogers tore his Achilles before he could even throw a pass, and from there the Jets’ season went straight down the toilet. Rogers had more viral soundbites than the Jets had points per game. Head coach Robert Saleh’s job security was called into question towards the end of the season, despite the Jets still being very good on defense.
Now, we enter 2024 for the Jets with much higher expectations, with more scrutiny. However, the biggest thing stopping the Jets from reaching their expectations, are the Jets themselves. They are a team built on the question, “what if”. But…what if it works?
Let’s start with the offense, where all of the question marks still remain. Rogers is back as the QB, yes, but at 41 and coming off a major lower body injury, what is the expectation for Rogers’ level of play? What caliber of QB does he have to be in order for the Jets to not only win the division, but push the Chiefs at the top of the AFC? Not only is Rogers coming back from a Achilles tear, but the last time he played a full season, he wasn’t the Aaron Rogers we all believe he can play up to. He finished 2022 21st in Adjusted EPA per play and in Success Rate, while the Packers missed the playoffs. Now, you can attribute that to a poor offensive line or a clear disinterest from Rogers in being the Packers’ QB, but the signal caller clearly was not the same player as he once was. If he’s aging into being a more limited QB, do the Jets have the infrastructure to keep him at his best? Well, yes but it also requires a series of hypotheticals.
Hypothetically, new free agent signings Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses give the Jets 17 games of high level play at both tackle spots. Smith is still capable of being an excellent left tackle; offensive line guru and writer Brandon Thorn still puts Smith in the very good tier of his offensive line rankings, and 2023 could be considered his best single season in years. However, Smith hasn’t played more than 15 games in almost a decade (since 2015 to be exact) and is 33 years old. Can he continue his high level of play? Absolutely, but the question is if it’ll be sustainable enough over one season to get the Jets to the promised land. Morgan Moses was solid for Baltimore at right tackle, but he only played in 14 games last year. If either of those guys get hurt, first round pick Olu Fashanu steps in, but that brings up another pack of questions. Fashanu only played left tackle at Penn State. If Moses gets hurt can Fashanu move to right tackle at the NFL level? That’s what the Jets are hoping for. The rest of the Jets’ line is solid: Alijah Vera-Tucker at guard could be very good this year, and Joe Tipmann enters his second year as the center. John Simpson is a mauler at left guard who should boost the run game. But the two tackle spots are where I get a little nervous, especially if Smith misses extensive time.
Now we get out to the receiving core, where there’s budding superstar wideout Garrett Wilson and … more question marks! Mike Williams is a great complement to what Wilson brings to the table and can still be a vertical ball winner, but of course, the injuries come into play. Williams played in only three games last year and hasn’t played 80% of his teams’ offensive snaps since 2019. After that, there’s a lot of just meh around the room. Rookie wideout Malachi Corley is fun, but he’s best being used as a designer play guy who didn’t really run a lot of real routes in his college career. Allen Lazard is a good blocker, but I’m not sure how much he’s adding to the passing game. Behind them…good luck. The depth in that room isn’t great, and if Williams can’t stay healthy this thing gets really ugly, really quick.
We haven’t even gotten to the biggest hypothetical yet: the idea that Nathaniel Hackett is a really good offensive coordinator. Last year was a mulligan for the Jets offense for a lot of reasons, namely Rogers’ injury. But Hackett still couldn’t create any sustainable offense and hasn’t put together much of a passing game. He’s a great friend to Aaron Rogers and not much else.
However, this crazy group of hypotheticals might just work. The defense will give them a much wider margin for error to figure it out on the offensive side of the ball. The group returns all of their stars and could finish at the top of the league. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is a trendy DPOY pick, and his game-wrecking ability is the centerpiece of this defense. Corner Sauce Gardner has another level his game can go to, and with the defensive braintrust still intact, they can get even better.
Offensively, what if Rogers is just decent? He doesn’t have to be the MVP he once was, especially if the defense is as good as it can be. If Rogers can be the most effective point guard in the NFL, getting the ball out extremely quick and hitting enough of the tough throws to keep defenses honest, it’s a good formula for success. RB Breece Hall should be a major player in this offense, with a commitment to the ground game accentuating around Hall’s strengths. On top of that, the Jets have the fourth easiest schedule in the entire league, per Sharp Football Analytics. They have enough time to really get things going and get Rogers back into the swing of playing football.
With the expectations for the Jets sky high, they’ll be facing a lot of scrutiny from everywhere, including major New York media. However, this team of question marks may end the season with an exclamation point.
